Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 18 · 03:55 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

12 of 12 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 10.6 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 24 cohort members. HOMB is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 14%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth1 up · 23 down-1.7% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment14%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 18/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 15:50–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceBNS registered the first material downside path

    -3.24% session path at the threshold · BNS

  2. 5-minute inferenceCM registered a material downside path

    -2.77% session path at the threshold · CM

  3. 5-minute inferenceBMO registered a material downside path

    -2.46% session path at the threshold · BMO

  4. 5-minute inferenceBBT registered a material downside path

    -2.16% session path at the threshold · BBT

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 24NWBI filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 19AX filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 10.6 effective names. BNS represents 14.7% of absolute path energy; 12 of 12 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad14.7% from the largest path
Effective names10.6 / 1212 of 24 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth12/12 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverBNS 14.7%26.9% from the top two paths
BNS14.7%Aligned contributor · path -3.40% · basket -0.28pp
CM12.2%Aligned contributor · path -2.83% · basket -0.23pp
BMO11.5%Aligned contributor · path -2.67% · basket -0.22pp
BBT10.3%Aligned contributor · path -2.38% · basket -0.20pp
AX8.2%Aligned contributor · path -1.90% · basket -0.16pp
EFSC7.6%Aligned contributor · path -1.76% · basket -0.15pp
BKU7.4%Aligned contributor · path -1.72% · basket -0.14pp
EBC6.9%Aligned contributor · path -1.60% · basket -0.13pp
BANR6.7%Aligned contributor · path -1.55% · basket -0.13pp
BFST5.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.22% · basket -0.10pp
CFFN4.8%Aligned contributor · path -1.11% · basket -0.09pp
CARE4.4%Aligned contributor · path -1.02% · basket -0.09pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. BNS moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -3.24%
  2. CM registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -2.77%
  3. BMO registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -2.46%
  4. BBT registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -2.16%
  5. AX registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.87%
  6. EFSC registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.75%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Oct 6 · 15:50 ETMove visible 15:40 ETOct 7 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.74%Strongest relative path CAREWeakest relative path BNS

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

23/33 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BFST, CFFN, EBC, FCF, FLG, HG, HOPE, IBCP, OBK, OCFC, PFS, ZION.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase in net interest income (FTE) and net interest margin (FTE) was driven by an increase in interest income resulting from an increase in average earning assets from the Penns Woods acquisition coupled with higher earning asset yields which was offset by an increase in interest expense due to an increase in the average balance interest bearing liabilities from the Penns Woods acquisitions which was slightly offset by a lower costs of funding.”

NWBI 10-K · 2026-02-25
credit / rates

“Compared to the year ended December 31, 2024, average borrowings saw a 8% decrease primarily attributable to the strategic pay-down of wholesale borrowings which was partially offset by the acquisition of long-term borrowings from Penns Woods.”

NWBI 10-K · 2026-02-25
demand / volume

“A substantial reduction in mortgage purchasing activity by the GSEs could result in a material decrease in the availability of residential mortgage loans and the number of qualified borrowers, which in turn may lead to increased volatility in the residential housing market, including a decrease in demand for residential housing and a corresponding drop in the value of real property that secures current residential mortgage loans, as well as a significant increase in interest rates.”

AX 10-K · 2026-08-20
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

HOMBMoving with group

FSUN · text peer

HFWANot confirming

TFSL · text peer

CNOBNot confirming

FLG · text peer

TFINRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

TFSL · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BFSTSLFBKUBBTFLGCFFNCMZIONTFSLOZKCAREPFSTOWNBMOEBCBNSFCFHGAXTDEFSCBANRFSUNNTB

10/33 active1 rising · 23 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.
Elevated · 84/100
-1.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SLFSun Life Financial Inc.
Elevated · 56/100
-2.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BKUBankUnited, Inc.
Elevated · 38/100
-1.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BBTBeacon Financial Corporation
Elevated · 35/100
-2.2%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FLGFlagstar Bank, National Association
Elevated · 28/100
-2.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc.
Elevated · 28/100
-0.9%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Elevated · 26/100
-2.9%
Aligned path contributorActive in 100% of observed group sessions
ZIONZions Bancorporation, National Association
Elevated · 24/100
-1.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 100% of observed group sessions
TFSLTFS Financial Corporation
Elevated · 24/100
-2.7%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
OZKBank OZK
Elevated · 23/100
-2.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.
Elevated · 22/100
-1.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.
Quiet · 21/100
-1.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 100% of observed group sessions
TOWNTowneBank
Quiet · 20/100
-1.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 100% of observed group sessions
BMOBank of Montreal
Quiet · 19/100
-2.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.
Quiet · 17/100
-1.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BNSThe Bank of Nova Scotia
Quiet · 16/100
-3.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FCFFirst Commonwealth Financial Corporation
Quiet · 16/100
-1.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.
Quiet · 15/100
+0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AXAxos Financial, Inc.
Quiet · 14/100
-1.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 100% of observed group sessions
TDThe Toronto-Dominion Bank
Quiet · 13/100
-3.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
EFSCEnterprise Financial Services Corp
Quiet · 13/100
-1.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BANRBanner Corporation
Quiet · 9/100
-1.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FSUNFirstSun Capital Bancorp
Quiet · 8/100
-1.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited
Quiet · 5/100
-2.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.Participating-1.1%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SLFSun Life Financial Inc.Participating-2.4%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BKUBankUnited, Inc.Participating-1.5%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BBTBeacon Financial CorporationParticipating-2.2%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FLGFlagstar Bank, National AssociationParticipating-2.3%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc.Participating-0.9%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceParticipating-2.9%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ZIONZions Bancorporation, National AssociationParticipating-1.5%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TFSLTFS Financial CorporationParticipating-2.7%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
OZKBank OZKParticipating-2.4%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.Participating-1.0%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.4%100% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
TOWNTowneBankQuiet / lagging-1.2%100% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BMOBank of MontrealQuiet / lagging-2.7%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.6%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BNSThe Bank of Nova ScotiaQuiet / lagging-3.4%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FCFFirst Commonwealth Financial CorporationQuiet / lagging-1.0%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.Quiet / lagging+0.2%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AXAxos Financial, Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.6%100% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
TDThe Toronto-Dominion BankQuiet / lagging-3.6%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EFSCEnterprise Financial Services CorpQuiet / lagging-1.5%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BANRBanner CorporationQuiet / lagging-1.4%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FSUNFirstSun Capital BancorpQuiet / lagging-1.6%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son LimitedQuiet / lagging-2.5%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 1 completed episode across 1 active session; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support8 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions1Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-021 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
AX100% · 1 episode
CM100% · 1 episode
PFS100% · 1 episode
TOWN100% · 1 episode
ZION100% · 1 episode
BANR0% · 0 episodes
BBT0% · 0 episodes
BFST0% · 0 episodes
BKU0% · 0 episodes
BMO0% · 0 episodes
BNS0% · 0 episodes
CARE0% · 0 episodes
CFFN0% · 0 episodes
EBC0% · 0 episodes
EFSC0% · 0 episodes
FCF0% · 0 episodes
FLG0% · 0 episodes
FSUN0% · 0 episodes
HG0% · 0 episodes
HMN0% · 0 episodes
HOPE0% · 0 episodes
IBCP0% · 0 episodes
NTB0% · 0 episodes
NWBI0% · 0 episodes
OBK0% · 0 episodes
OCFC0% · 0 episodes
OZK0% · 0 episodes
PEBO0% · 0 episodes
PLGO0% · 0 episodes
RY0% · 0 episodes
SLF0% · 0 episodes
TD0% · 0 episodes
TFSL0% · 0 episodes