Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 18 · 03:55 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

Price direction is split across 24 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 14%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth12 up · 11 downRelative median unavailable

Capital-flow alignment14%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow

Activity nowCalmActivity score 18/100 · lift 0.8×

Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook

EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events

TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 24NWBI filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 19AX filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations

Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast

WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

23/33 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BFST, CFFN, EBC, FCF, FLG, HG, HOPE, IBCP, OBK, OCFC, PFS, ZION.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase in net interest income (FTE) and net interest margin (FTE) was driven by an increase in interest income resulting from an increase in average earning assets from the Penns Woods acquisition coupled with higher earning asset yields which was offset by an increase in interest expense due to an increase in the average balance interest bearing liabilities from the Penns Woods acquisitions which was slightly offset by a lower costs of funding.”
NWBI 10-K · 2026-02-25

credit / rates

“Compared to the year ended December 31, 2024, average borrowings saw a 8% decrease primarily attributable to the strategic pay-down of wholesale borrowings which was partially offset by the acquisition of long-term borrowings from Penns Woods.”
NWBI 10-K · 2026-02-25

demand / volume

“A substantial reduction in mortgage purchasing activity by the GSEs could result in a material decrease in the availability of residential mortgage loans and the number of qualified borrowers, which in turn may lead to increased volatility in the residential housing market, including a decrease in demand for residential housing and a corresponding drop in the value of real property that secures current residential mortgage loans, as well as a significant increase in interest rates.”
AX 10-K · 2026-08-20

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

HFWAMoving with group

TFSL · text peer

CNOBMoving with group

FLG · text peer

TFINRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

TFSL · text peer

BANCNot confirming

HOPE · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately

BFSTSLFBKUBBTFLGCFFNCMZIONTFSLOZKCAREPFSTOWNBMOEBCBNSFCFHGAXTDEFSCBANRFSUNNTB

10/33 active12 rising · 11 falling · 1 flat

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now

BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.

Elevated · 84/100

-0.4%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

SLFSun Life Financial Inc.

Elevated · 56/100

+0.7%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

BKUBankUnited, Inc.

Elevated · 38/100

+0.6%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

BBTBeacon Financial Corporation

Elevated · 35/100

-0.3%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

FLGFlagstar Bank, National Association

Elevated · 28/100

+0.6%

Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions

CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc.

Elevated · 28/100

-0.4%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

Elevated · 26/100

+0.7%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 100% of observed group sessions

ZIONZions Bancorporation, National Association

Elevated · 24/100

+0.4%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 100% of observed group sessions

TFSLTFS Financial Corporation

Elevated · 24/100

+0.1%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

OZKBank OZK

Elevated · 23/100

-0.3%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.

Elevated · 22/100

-0.4%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.

Quiet · 21/100

-0.1%

Watch / laggardActive in 100% of observed group sessions

TOWNTowneBank

Quiet · 20/100

-0.1%

Watch / laggardActive in 100% of observed group sessions

BMOBank of Montreal

Quiet · 19/100

+0.7%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.

Quiet · 17/100

-0.3%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

BNSThe Bank of Nova Scotia

Quiet · 16/100

+1.2%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

FCFFirst Commonwealth Financial Corporation

Quiet · 16/100

-0.3%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.

Quiet · 15/100

+0.0%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

AXAxos Financial, Inc.

Quiet · 14/100

-1.4%

Watch / laggardActive in 100% of observed group sessions

TDThe Toronto-Dominion Bank

Quiet · 13/100

+1.0%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

EFSCEnterprise Financial Services Corp

Quiet · 13/100

+0.1%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

BANRBanner Corporation

Quiet · 9/100

-0.4%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

FSUNFirstSun Capital Bancorp

Quiet · 8/100

+0.7%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited

Quiet · 5/100

+0.9%

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

View exact member values

TICKER	Company	Role now	Today	Observed history	Trader interpretation
BFST	Business First Bancshares, Inc.	Participating	-0.4%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SLF	Sun Life Financial Inc.	Participating	+0.7%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BKU	BankUnited, Inc.	Participating	+0.6%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BBT	Beacon Financial Corporation	Participating	-0.3%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FLG	Flagstar Bank, National Association	Participating	+0.6%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
CFFN	Capitol Federal Financial, Inc.	Participating	-0.4%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CM	Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce	Participating	+0.7%	100% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ZION	Zions Bancorporation, National Association	Participating	+0.4%	100% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TFSL	TFS Financial Corporation	Participating	+0.1%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
OZK	Bank OZK	Participating	-0.3%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CARE	Carter Bankshares, Inc.	Participating	-0.4%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PFS	Provident Financial Services, Inc.	Quiet / lagging	-0.1%	100% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
TOWN	TowneBank	Quiet / lagging	-0.1%	100% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BMO	Bank of Montreal	Quiet / lagging	+0.7%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EBC	Eastern Bankshares, Inc.	Quiet / lagging	-0.3%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BNS	The Bank of Nova Scotia	Quiet / lagging	+1.2%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FCF	First Commonwealth Financial Corporation	Quiet / lagging	-0.3%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
HG	Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.	Quiet / lagging	+0.0%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AX	Axos Financial, Inc.	Quiet / lagging	-1.4%	100% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
TD	The Toronto-Dominion Bank	Quiet / lagging	+1.0%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EFSC	Enterprise Financial Services Corp	Quiet / lagging	+0.1%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BANR	Banner Corporation	Quiet / lagging	-0.4%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FSUN	FirstSun Capital Bancorp	Quiet / lagging	+0.7%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NTB	The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited	Quiet / lagging	+0.9%	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome

POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Low structural sample

Only 1 completed episode across 1 active session; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support8 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed

Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity

Active sessions1Completed session observations, not trades

2026-09-021 active session100% composition consistency through the episode

MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS

AX100% · 1 episode

CM100% · 1 episode

PFS100% · 1 episode

TOWN100% · 1 episode

ZION100% · 1 episode

BANR0% · 0 episodes

BBT0% · 0 episodes

BFST0% · 0 episodes

BKU0% · 0 episodes

BMO0% · 0 episodes

BNS0% · 0 episodes

CARE0% · 0 episodes

CFFN0% · 0 episodes

EBC0% · 0 episodes

EFSC0% · 0 episodes

FCF0% · 0 episodes

FLG0% · 0 episodes

FSUN0% · 0 episodes

HG0% · 0 episodes

HMN0% · 0 episodes

HOPE0% · 0 episodes

IBCP0% · 0 episodes

NTB0% · 0 episodes

NWBI0% · 0 episodes

OBK0% · 0 episodes

OCFC0% · 0 episodes

OZK0% · 0 episodes

PEBO0% · 0 episodes

PLGO0% · 0 episodes

RY0% · 0 episodes

SLF0% · 0 episodes

TD0% · 0 episodes

TFSL0% · 0 episodes