Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · 04:10 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

Price direction is split across 24 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 7%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth8 up · 14 downRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment7%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 17/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth3 support daysLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 24APO filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 19AX filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

27/36 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BFH, BFST, CFFN, EBC, FCF, FITB, FLG, HBAN, HG, HOPE, IBCP, LOB, OCFC, PFS, TCBK, ZION.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase in interest expense was primarily due to an increase in host accretion on business ceded to Catalina, as well as interest related to additional issuances of long-term debt in the second quarter of 2025 and a full year of interest on long-term debt issued in the fourth quarter of 2024.”

APO 10-K · 2026-02-25
credit / rates

“The AHL credit facility has a commitment termination date of June 30, 2028, subject to up to two one-year extensions, and was undrawn as of December 31, 2025.”

APO 10-K · 2026-02-25
demand / volume

“A substantial reduction in mortgage purchasing activity by the GSEs could result in a material decrease in the availability of residential mortgage loans and the number of qualified borrowers, which in turn may lead to increased volatility in the residential housing market, including a decrease in demand for residential housing and a corresponding drop in the value of real property that secures current residential mortgage loans, as well as a significant increase in interest rates.”

AX 10-K · 2026-08-20
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

ONBMoving with group

BKU · text peer

CBSHNot confirming

BBT · text peer

CNOBNot confirming

FLG · text peer

HFWANot confirming

TFSL · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
CMFITBTDBKUBMOBNSEBCTFSLZIONPFSTOWNBBTFLGBFHOZKAXAPONTBFCFAMSFBANRBFSTEFSCCFFN

14/36 active9 rising · 14 falling · 1 flat

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Most unusual · 100/100
+3.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FITBFifth Third Bancorp
Elevated · 64/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TDThe Toronto-Dominion Bank
Elevated · 62/100
+2.2%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BKUBankUnited, Inc.
Elevated · 62/100
+0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BMOBank of Montreal
Elevated · 61/100
+0.7%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BNSBank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3
Elevated · 60/100
+7.1%
Flow confirmerActive in 0% of observed group sessions
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.
Elevated · 60/100
-1.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TFSLTFS Financial Corporation
Elevated · 60/100
+0.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ZIONZions Bancorporation, National Association
Elevated · 59/100
-0.4%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PFSProvident Financial Services, I
Elevated · 59/100
-0.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TOWNTowneBank
Elevated · 58/100
-0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BBTBeacon Financial Corporation
Elevated · 53/100
-0.6%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FLGFlagstar Bank, National Association
Elevated · 52/100
-0.1%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 44/100
+2.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
OZKBank OZK
Quiet · 39/100
-0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AXAxos Financial, Inc.
Quiet · 34/100
+1.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
APOApollo Global Management, Inc.
Quiet · 31/100
+0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited
Quiet · 26/100
-0.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FCFFirst
Quiet · 0/100
-1.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.
Quiet · 0/100
-1.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BANRBanner Corporation
Quiet · 0/100
-0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.
Quiet · 0/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
EFSCEnterprise Financial Services C
Quiet · 0/100
-0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc.
Quiet · 0/100
+0.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceMost unusual+3.0%0% of 0 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
FITBFifth Third BancorpParticipating-0.1%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TDThe Toronto-Dominion BankParticipating+2.2%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
BKUBankUnited, Inc.Participating+0.1%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BMOBank of MontrealParticipating+0.7%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BNSBank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3Participating+7.1%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.Participating-1.3%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TFSLTFS Financial CorporationParticipating+0.8%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ZIONZions Bancorporation, National AssociationParticipating-0.4%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
PFSProvident Financial Services, IParticipating-0.5%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TOWNTowneBankParticipating-0.2%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BBTBeacon Financial CorporationParticipating-0.6%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FLGFlagstar Bank, National AssociationParticipating-0.1%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.Participating+2.1%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
OZKBank OZKQuiet / lagging-0.3%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AXAxos Financial, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.6%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
APOApollo Global Management, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.4%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son LimitedQuiet / lagging-0.1%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FCFFirstQuiet / lagging-1.1%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.0%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BANRBanner CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.7%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.5%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EFSCEnterprise Financial Services CQuiet / lagging-0.2%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.0%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 0 completed episodes across 0 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support3 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes0Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions0Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-2532 names in the durable cohort
2026-08-2436 names in the durable cohort
2026-08-2136 names in the durable cohort
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
AMSF0% · 0 episodes
APO0% · 0 episodes
AX0% · 0 episodes
BANR0% · 0 episodes
BBT0% · 0 episodes
BFH0% · 0 episodes
BFST0% · 0 episodes
BKU0% · 0 episodes
BMO0% · 0 episodes
BNS0% · 0 episodes
CFFN0% · 0 episodes
CM0% · 0 episodes
EBC0% · 0 episodes
EFSC0% · 0 episodes
FCF0% · 0 episodes
FITB0% · 0 episodes
FLG0% · 0 episodes
HBAN0% · 0 episodes
HG0% · 0 episodes
HMN0% · 0 episodes
HOPE0% · 0 episodes
IBCP0% · 0 episodes
LOB0% · 0 episodes
NTB0% · 0 episodes
NWBI0% · 0 episodes
OCFC0% · 0 episodes
OZK0% · 0 episodes
PEBO0% · 0 episodes
PFS0% · 0 episodes
PLGO0% · 0 episodes
RY0% · 0 episodes
TCBK0% · 0 episodes
TD0% · 0 episodes
TFSL0% · 0 episodes
TOWN0% · 0 episodes
ZION0% · 0 episodes