Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 14:57 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

0 of 12 measured session-normalized paths align to the mixed across 7.3 effective names. WFC, FITB, FLG are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 10%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth0 up · 11 down-0.1% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment10%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 94/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

5 timed events · 14:55–14:30 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferencePNC registered the first material downside path

    -0.38% session path at the threshold · PNC

  2. 5-minute inferenceKEY registered a material downside path

    -0.36% session path at the threshold · KEY

  3. 5-minute inferenceFHB registered a material downside path

    -0.39% session path at the threshold · FHB

  4. 5-minute inferenceUSB registered a material downside path

    -0.47% session path at the threshold · USB

  5. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    100% breadth · Hot activity

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, FEB 11ASB filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, MAY 5SBCF filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.3 effective names. FHB represents 23.3% of absolute path energy; 0 of 12 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionBroad23.3% from the largest path
Effective names7.3 / 12Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverFHB 23.3%37.9% from the top two paths
FHB23.3%Independent direction · path -0.88% · basket -0.07pp
ASB14.6%Independent direction · path +0.55% · basket +0.05pp
USB14.5%Independent direction · path -0.55% · basket -0.04pp
PNC13.9%Independent direction · path -0.52% · basket -0.04pp
GBCI9.2%Independent direction · path -0.35% · basket -0.03pp
SFNC8.1%Independent direction · path -0.30% · basket -0.03pp
ZION4.7%Independent direction · path -0.18% · basket -0.01pp
FIBK3.2%Independent direction · path +0.12% · basket +0.01pp
KEY3.0%Independent direction · path -0.11% · basket -0.01pp
SBCF2.3%Flat / inactive path · path -0.09% · basket -0.01pp
ONB2.0%Flat / inactive path · path +0.08% · basket +0.01pp
TCBI1.2%Flat / inactive path · path +0.05% · basket +0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. PNC moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.38%
  2. KEY registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.36%
  3. FHB registered a material lower path15m after the first price move · path -0.39%
  4. USB registered a material lower path15m after the first price move · path -0.47%
  5. ZION registered a material lower path15m after the first price move · path -0.53%
  6. ASB registered a material higher path1095m after the first price move · path +0.97%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Aug 20 · 14:55 ETMove visible 09:50 ETAug 21 · 14:30 ET
Group median -0.14%Strongest relative path ASBWeakest relative path FHB

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

12/12 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across FHB, FIBK, ONB, PNC, SBCF, SFNC, TCBI, USB, ZION.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Interest expense on deposits increased $1.0 million, or 2%, compared to the first quarter of 2025, largely the result of higher balances resulting from bank acquisitions in 2025, partially offset by lower rates.”

SBCF 10-Q · 2026-05-06
credit / rates

“The increase from the third quarter of 2024 is largely due to higher short-term borrowings used to fund strategic purchases of securities in advance of the Heartland and VBI acquisitions.”

SBCF 10-Q · 2025-11-05
demand / volume

“The second-largest segment in the non-owner occupied CRE portfolio is industrial or warehouse properties, which totaled $903.4 million at June 30, 2026, with an average loan size of $3.3 million, reflecting continued demand for logistics, distribution, and manufacturing space.”

SBCF 10-Q · 2026-08-04
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

3 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

WFCMoving with group

ASB · text peer

FITBMoving with group

ASB · text peer

FLGMoving with group

ASB · text peer

GABCNot confirming

ONB · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
SBCFGBCIFIBKSFNCUSBZIONKEYASBFHBTCBIPNCONB

12/12 active0 rising · 12 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
SBCFSeacoast Banking Corporation of Florida
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 53.8% of observed group sessions
GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc.
Elevated · 73/100
-1.5%
Flow divergenceActive in 30.8% of observed group sessions
FIBKFirst Interstate BancSystem, Inc.
Elevated · 66/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 23.1% of observed group sessions
SFNCSimmons First National Corporation
Elevated · 49/100
-0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 53.8% of observed group sessions
USBU.S. Bancorp
Elevated · 40/100
-1.6%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 38.5% of observed group sessions
ZIONZions Bancorporation, National Association
Elevated · 38/100
-0.6%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 7.7% of observed group sessions
KEYKeyCorp
Elevated · 36/100
-1.2%
Flow divergenceActive in 30.8% of observed group sessions
ASBAssociated Banc-Corp
Elevated · 29/100
-0.2%
Flow divergenceActive in 53.8% of observed group sessions
FHBFirst Hawaiian, Inc.
Elevated · 28/100
-0.6%
Flow divergenceActive in 15.4% of observed group sessions
TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.
Elevated · 26/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 30.8% of observed group sessions
PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
Elevated · 24/100
-2.0%
First material pathActive in 53.8% of observed group sessions
ONBOld National Bancorp
Elevated · 22/100
-0.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 15.4% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
SBCFSeacoast Banking Corporation of FloridaMost unusual-1.0%53.8% of 13 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc.Participating-1.5%30.8% of 13 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FIBKFirst Interstate BancSystem, Inc.Participating-0.1%23.1% of 13 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SFNCSimmons First National CorporationParticipating-0.3%53.8% of 13 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
USBU.S. BancorpParticipating-1.6%38.5% of 13 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ZIONZions Bancorporation, National AssociationParticipating-0.6%7.7% of 13 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
KEYKeyCorpParticipating-1.2%30.8% of 13 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
ASBAssociated Banc-CorpParticipating-0.2%53.8% of 13 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FHBFirst Hawaiian, Inc.Participating-0.6%15.4% of 13 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.Participating-0.1%30.8% of 13 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.Participating-2.0%53.8% of 13 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ONBOld National BancorpParticipating-0.3%15.4% of 13 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

8/8 events completed
30 minutes-0.03%43% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.43% · MAE -0.21%
60 minutes+0.06%57% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.43% · MAE -0.21%
Session close+0.20%67% continuation · n=6Median MFE +0.32% · MAE -0.30%
Next-session close+0.10%83% continuation · n=6Median MFE +0.48% · MAE -0.20%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 13 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support17 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions13Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-30 → 2026-08-2112 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-231 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
ASB53.8% · 1 episode
PNC53.8% · 1 episode
SBCF53.8% · 1 episode
SFNC53.8% · 1 episode
USB38.5% · 1 episode
GBCI30.8% · 2 episodes
KEY30.8% · 1 episode
TCBI30.8% · 1 episode
FIBK23.1% · 1 episode
FHB15.4% · 2 episodes
ONB15.4% · 1 episode
ZION7.7% · 1 episode