Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

12 of 12 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 10.5 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 13 cohort members. SSB, FBP, HOMB are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 18%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth13 of 13 falling-0.9% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment18%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowNormalActivity score 41/100 · lift 1.0×
Evidence depth7 episodes53 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

6 timed events · 09:40–15:55 ET
TIMING READA verified headline preceded the first measured price move in the common-bar window by 865 minutes. The timing makes it a catalyst candidate, not proof of cause.
  3. 5-minute inferenceVLY registered the first material downside path

    -0.70% session path at the threshold · VLY

  4. 5-minute inferenceWAL registered a material downside path

    -0.49% session path at the threshold · WAL

  5. 5-minute inferenceCOLB registered a material downside path

    -0.57% session path at the threshold · COLB

  6. 5-minute inferenceSFBS registered a material downside path

    -0.42% session path at the threshold · SFBS

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, AUG 5BKU filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, AUG 6EWBC filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 10.5 effective names. EWBC represents 13.6% of absolute path energy; 12 of 12 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad13.6% from the largest path
Effective names10.5 / 1212 of 13 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth12/12 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverEWBC 13.6%24.6% from the top two paths
EWBC13.6%Aligned contributor · path -1.26% · basket -0.10pp
VLY11.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.02% · basket -0.09pp
COLB10.0%Aligned contributor · path -0.92% · basket -0.08pp
WAL10.0%Aligned contributor · path -0.92% · basket -0.08pp
SFBS9.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.92% · basket -0.08pp
FNB9.4%Aligned contributor · path -0.86% · basket -0.07pp
FHN9.1%Aligned contributor · path -0.84% · basket -0.07pp
AUB7.7%Aligned contributor · path -0.71% · basket -0.06pp
BKU7.3%Aligned contributor · path -0.67% · basket -0.06pp
CFG6.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.64% · basket -0.05pp
EBC3.4%Aligned contributor · path -0.31% · basket -0.03pp
FITB1.7%Aligned contributor · path -0.16% · basket -0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. VLY moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.70%
  2. WAL registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.49%
  3. COLB registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.57%
  4. SFBS registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.42%
  5. FNB registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.60%
  6. FHN registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.47%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 30 · 09:40 ETMove visible 10:25 ETSep 30 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.85%Strongest relative path FITBWeakest relative path EWBC

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

13/13 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across CFG, COLB, EBC, EWBC, FHN, FITB, SFBS.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase in net interest income for both the quarter and year -to-date periods was primarily due to lower deposit interest expense resulting from the year-over-year decline in interest rates.”

EWBC 10-Q · 2026-08-07
demand / volume

“Total deposits were $70.1 billion as of June 30, 2026, an increase of $3.0 billion or 4%, from December 31, 2025, primarily driven by growth in noninterest-bearing demand and money market deposits.”

EWBC 10-Q · 2026-08-07
credit / rates

“Total borrowings increased from the prior year primarily driven by increases in short-term FHLB advances, as well as additional long-term subordinated debt assumed in connection with the Sandy Spring acquisition. ​ ​ ​ 55 Table of Contents NET INCOME Years Ended December 31, 2025 and 2024 Net income available to common shareholders was $261.8 million for 2025, an increase of $64.5 million or 32.7% and represented both basic and diluted EPS of $2.03, compared to net income of $197.3 million and basic and diluted EPS of $2.29 and $2.24, respectively, for 2024.”

AUB 10-K · 2026-02-26
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

5 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SSBMoving with group

AUB · text peer

FBPMoving with group

AUB · text peer

HOMBMoving with group

SFBS · text peer

BYMoving with group

FNB · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
EWBCAUBWTFCFHNSFBSEBCFITBCOLBFNBCFGVLYBKUWAL

9/13 active0 rising · 13 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 22.6% of observed group sessions
AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares Corporation
Elevated · 94/100
-0.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 15.1% of observed group sessions
WTFCWintrust Financial Corporation
Elevated · 90/100
-1.2%
Flow divergenceActive in 35.8% of observed group sessions
FHNFirst Horizon Corporation
Elevated · 72/100
-0.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 13.2% of observed group sessions
SFBSServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.
Elevated · 53/100
-0.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 1.9% of observed group sessions
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.
Elevated · 53/100
-0.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 1.9% of observed group sessions
FITBFifth Third Bancorp
Elevated · 50/100
-0.8%
Aligned price + flowActive in 11.3% of observed group sessions
COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc.
Elevated · 49/100
-0.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 3.8% of observed group sessions
FNBF.N.B. Corporation
Elevated · 48/100
-0.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 18.9% of observed group sessions
CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.
Quiet · 47/100
-0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 5.7% of observed group sessions
VLYValley National Bancorp
Quiet · 47/100
-0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 17% of observed group sessions
BKUBankUnited, Inc.
Quiet · 43/100
-0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 15.1% of observed group sessions
WALWestern Alliance Bancorporation
Quiet · 41/100
-0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 9.4% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc.Most unusual-1.3%22.6% of 53 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares CorporationParticipating-0.1%15.1% of 53 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
WTFCWintrust Financial CorporationParticipating-1.2%35.8% of 53 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FHNFirst Horizon CorporationParticipating-0.4%13.2% of 53 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SFBSServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.Participating-0.3%1.9% of 53 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.Participating-0.3%1.9% of 53 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FITBFifth Third BancorpParticipating-0.8%11.3% of 53 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc.Participating-0.3%3.8% of 53 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FNBF.N.B. CorporationParticipating-0.5%18.9% of 53 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.2%5.7% of 53 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
VLYValley National BancorpQuiet / lagging-0.7%17% of 53 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BKUBankUnited, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.8%15.1% of 53 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WALWestern Alliance BancorporationQuiet / lagging-0.8%9.4% of 53 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

8/8 events completed
30 minutes-0.13%40% continuation · n=5Median MFE +0.95% · MAE -0.31%
60 minutes+0.22%60% continuation · n=5Median MFE +0.95% · MAE -0.31%
Session close+0.46%60% continuation · n=5Median MFE +0.95% · MAE -0.31%
Next-session close+0.60%60% continuation · n=5Median MFE +0.95% · MAE -0.31%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

7 completed episodes across 53 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support80 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes7Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions53Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-06 → 2026-08-199 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-3017 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-027 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-15 → 2026-06-172 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-05-29 → 2026-06-056 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-05-14 → 2026-05-205 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
WTFC35.8% · 6 episodes
EWBC22.6% · 2 episodes
FNB18.9% · 3 episodes
VLY17% · 3 episodes
AUB15.1% · 3 episodes
BKU15.1% · 4 episodes
FHN13.2% · 3 episodes
FITB11.3% · 3 episodes
WAL9.4% · 3 episodes
CFG5.7% · 3 episodes
COLB3.8% · 2 episodes
EBC1.9% · 1 episode
SFBS1.9% · 1 episode