Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

12 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 9.9 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 13 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 18%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth7 up · 4 down+0.4% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment18%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 93/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth7 episodes54 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

5 timed events · 13:00–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    92% breadth · Hot activity

  2. 5-minute inferenceFITB registered the first material upside path

    +0.80% session path at the threshold · FITB

  3. 5-minute inferenceVLY registered a material upside path

    +0.47% session path at the threshold · VLY

  4. 5-minute inferenceWAL registered a material upside path

    +0.54% session path at the threshold · WAL

  5. 5-minute inferenceCFG registered a material upside path

    +0.36% session path at the threshold · CFG

2 earlier filing context receipts

THU, FEB 26SFBS filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 5BKU filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 9.9 effective names. FITB represents 17.3% of absolute path energy; 12 of 12 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad17.3% from the largest path
Effective names9.9 / 1212 of 13 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth12/12 alignedupside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverFITB 17.3%28.8% from the top two paths
FITB17.3%Aligned contributor · path +0.89% · basket +0.07pp
AUB11.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.59% · basket +0.05pp
BKU11.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.59% · basket +0.05pp
VLY10.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.54% · basket +0.04pp
FHN9.9%Aligned contributor · path +0.51% · basket +0.04pp
WAL8.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.44% · basket +0.04pp
COLB7.2%Aligned contributor · path +0.37% · basket +0.03pp
SFBS5.6%Aligned contributor · path +0.29% · basket +0.02pp
EBC5.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.28% · basket +0.02pp
FNB4.7%Aligned contributor · path +0.24% · basket +0.02pp
EWBC4.2%Aligned contributor · path +0.22% · basket +0.02pp
CFG3.8%Aligned contributor · path +0.20% · basket +0.02pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. FITB moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +0.80%
  2. VLY registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.47%
  3. WAL registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.54%
  4. CFG registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.36%
  5. BKU registered a material higher path30m after the first price move · path +0.47%
  6. SFBS registered a material higher path30m after the first price move · path +0.47%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 21 · 13:00 ETMove visible 15:55 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.41%Strongest relative path FITBWeakest relative path CFG

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

13/13 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across CFG, COLB, EBC, EWBC, FHN, FITB, SFBS.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The following table shows, for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, the average balances of each principal category of our assets, liabilities and stockholders’ equity, and an analysis of net interest income, and the change in interest income and interest expense segregated into amounts attributable to changes in volume and changes in rates.”

SFBS 10-K · 2026-02-27
demand / volume

“A decrease or stabilization in interest rates may lead to reduced competition for deposits, due to lower savings yields, and increased loan demand because of lowered cost of obtaining credit.”

SFBS 10-K · 2026-02-27
credit / rates

“,687 Interest-bearing 11,534,762 10,923,772 Total deposits 14,219,034 13,543,459 Federal funds purchased 1,471,628 1,993,728 Other borrowings 34,750 64,743 Accrued interest and dividends payable 29,990 28,026 Other liabilities 121,441 104,915 Total liabilities 15,876,843 15,734,871 Stockholders' equity: Preferred stock, par value $ 0.001 per share; 1,000,000 authorized and undesignated at December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024 - - Common stock, par value $ 0.001 per share; 200,000,000 shares authorized: 54,624,955 shares issued and outstanding at December 31, 2025; and 54,569,427 shares issued and outstanding at December 31, 2024 54 54 Additional paid-in capital 237,839 235,781 Retained earnings 1,613,746 1,412,616 Accumulated other comprehensive loss ( 1,792 ) ( 32,179 ) Total stockholders' equity attributable to ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.”

SFBS 10-K · 2026-02-27
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SSBNot confirming

AUB · text peer

FBPNot confirming

AUB · text peer

BFCRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

SFBS · text peer

BHRBNot confirming

EBC · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
SFBSCOLBWALEWBCAUBWTFCFNBFHNFITBEBCBKUVLYCFG

13/13 active8 rising · 4 falling · 1 flat

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
SFBSServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-50.4%
Aligned path contributorActive in 3.7% of observed group sessions
COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc.
Elevated · 52/100
-0.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 5.6% of observed group sessions
WALWestern Alliance Bancorporation
Elevated · 32/100
+0.7%
Aligned price + flowActive in 11.1% of observed group sessions
EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc.
Elevated · 31/100
+0.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 24.1% of observed group sessions
AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares Corporation
Elevated · 29/100
+0.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 14.8% of observed group sessions
WTFCWintrust Financial Corporation
Elevated · 27/100
+0.1%
Flow divergenceActive in 37% of observed group sessions
FNBF.N.B. Corporation
Elevated · 23/100
+0.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 18.5% of observed group sessions
FHNFirst Horizon Corporation
Elevated · 22/100
-0.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 13% of observed group sessions
FITBFifth Third Bancorp
Elevated · 19/100
+0.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 11.1% of observed group sessions
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.
Elevated · 18/100
-0.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 1.9% of observed group sessions
BKUBankUnited, Inc.
Participating · 15/100
+0.2%
Aligned path contributorActive in 14.8% of observed group sessions
VLYValley National Bancorp
Participating · 15/100
+0.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.
Participating · 15/100
+0.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 5.6% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
SFBSServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.Most unusual-50.4%3.7% of 54 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
COLBColumbia Banking System, Inc.Participating-0.1%5.6% of 54 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
WALWestern Alliance BancorporationParticipating+0.7%11.1% of 54 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc.Participating+0.0%24.1% of 54 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares CorporationParticipating+0.3%14.8% of 54 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
WTFCWintrust Financial CorporationParticipating+0.1%37% of 54 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FNBF.N.B. CorporationParticipating+0.0%18.5% of 54 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FHNFirst Horizon CorporationParticipating-0.2%13% of 54 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FITBFifth Third BancorpParticipating+0.6%11.1% of 54 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.Participating-0.1%1.9% of 54 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BKUBankUnited, Inc.Participating+0.2%14.8% of 54 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
VLYValley National BancorpParticipating+0.3%16.7% of 54 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.Participating+0.2%5.6% of 54 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

7/7 events completed
30 minutes-0.13%40% continuation · n=5Median MFE +0.95% · MAE -0.31%
60 minutes+0.22%60% continuation · n=5Median MFE +0.95% · MAE -0.31%
Session close+0.46%60% continuation · n=5Median MFE +0.95% · MAE -0.31%
Next-session close+0.95%75% continuation · n=4Median MFE +1.12% · MAE -0.23%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

7 completed episodes across 54 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support80 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes7Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions54Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-06 → 2026-08-2110 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-3017 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-027 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-15 → 2026-06-172 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-05-29 → 2026-06-056 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-05-14 → 2026-05-205 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
WTFC37% · 6 episodes
EWBC24.1% · 2 episodes
FNB18.5% · 3 episodes
VLY16.7% · 3 episodes
AUB14.8% · 3 episodes
BKU14.8% · 4 episodes
FHN13% · 3 episodes
FITB11.1% · 3 episodes
WAL11.1% · 4 episodes
CFG5.6% · 3 episodes
COLB5.6% · 2 episodes
SFBS3.7% · 1 episode
EBC1.9% · 1 episode