Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 30 · 18:28 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

8 of 9 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 6.9 effective names. OCFC, ONB, WFC are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 40%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth9 of 9 falling-0.6% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment40%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 17/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferencePEBO registered the first material upside path

    +1.36% session path at the threshold · PEBO

  2. 5-minute inferenceTFSL registered a material downside path

    -0.61% session path at the threshold · TFSL

  3. 5-minute inferenceNWBI registered a material downside path

    -0.50% session path at the threshold · NWBI

  4. 5-minute inferenceFCF registered a material downside path

    -0.42% session path at the threshold · FCF

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, FEB 25PEBO filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 5BKU filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 6.9 effective names. PEBO represents 23.2% of absolute path energy; 8 of 9 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad23.2% from the largest path
Effective names6.9 / 9Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth8/9 aligneddownside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverPEBO 23.2%43.1% from the top two paths
PEBO23.2%Counter-move · path +1.72% · basket +0.19pp
FLG19.9%Aligned contributor · path -1.48% · basket -0.16pp
TFSL11.5%Aligned contributor · path -0.86% · basket -0.10pp
NWBI9.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.74% · basket -0.08pp
FCF9.6%Aligned contributor · path -0.71% · basket -0.08pp
PFS8.4%Aligned contributor · path -0.63% · basket -0.07pp
BKU8.1%Aligned contributor · path -0.60% · basket -0.07pp
IBCP6.3%Aligned contributor · path -0.47% · basket -0.05pp
EBC3.2%Aligned contributor · path -0.24% · basket -0.03pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. PEBO moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +1.36%
  2. TFSL registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.61%
  3. NWBI registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.50%
  4. FCF registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.42%
  5. IBCP registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.58%
  6. PFS registered a material lower path40m after the first price move · path -0.45%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 30 · 09:30 ETMove visible 11:20 ETSep 30 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.63%Strongest relative path PEBOWeakest relative path FLG

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

9/9 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across EBC, FCF, FLG, IBCP, PFS.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Other non-interest expense decreased for 2024 when compared to 2023, primarily due to higher acquisition costs and pension expense in the prior year of $2.5 million and $2.1 million, respectively, both of which were partially offset by an increase in miscellaneous expenses of $1.9 million for 2024, which was primarily attributable to one-time corporate expenses.”

PEBO 10-K · 2026-02-26
credit / rates

“Additional information regarding Peoples’ borrowed funds can be found in “Note 9 Short-Term Borrowings” and “Note 10 Long-Term Borrowings.” Capital/Stockholders’ Equity Peoples’ total stockholders’ equity at December 31, 2025, increased $95.0 million, or 9%, when compared to at December 31, 2024, which was due to net income of $106.8 million for 2025 and a decrease in other comprehensive loss of $39.8 million, partially offset by dividends paid of $58.1 million.”

PEBO 10-K · 2026-02-26
demand / volume

“51 The following graph presents trends in the deposit mix and cost of deposits (in millions): Quarterly average cost of deposits 2.12% 2.18% Non-interest bearing as a % of total deposits 30.5% 28.8% Spot average APY of total deposits 2.09% 2.10% Non-interest bearing demand deposits declined by 2%, or $166 million during the quarter ended March 31, 2026, primarily due to seasonality.”

BKU 10-Q · 2026-05-07
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

3 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

OCFCMoving with group

PFS · text peer

ONBMoving with group

BKU · text peer

WFCMoving with group

BKU · text peer

HFWANot confirming

TFSL · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
PEBOBKUNWBITFSLFCFIBCPEBCPFSFLG

5/9 active0 rising · 9 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-5.9%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
BKUBankUnited, Inc.
Elevated · 57/100
-0.8%
Aligned path contributorActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.
Elevated · 42/100
-0.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 100% of observed group sessions
TFSLTFS Financial Corporation
Elevated · 40/100
-0.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FCFFirst Commonwealth Financial Corporation
Elevated · 39/100
-0.5%
Aligned price + flowActive in 100% of observed group sessions
IBCPIndependent Bank Corporation
Elevated · 38/100
-0.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.
Quiet · 25/100
-0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.
Quiet · 22/100
-0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
FLGFlagstar Bank, National Association
Quiet · 19/100
-1.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.Most unusual-5.9%33.3% of 3 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
BKUBankUnited, Inc.Participating-0.8%66.7% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.Participating-0.6%100% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TFSLTFS Financial CorporationParticipating-0.6%0% of 3 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FCFFirst Commonwealth Financial CorporationParticipating-0.5%100% of 3 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
IBCPIndependent Bank CorporationParticipating-0.3%33.3% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.3%0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.4%66.7% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FLGFlagstar Bank, National AssociationQuiet / lagging-1.5%0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

One continuous episode spans 3 active sessions; the independent episode sample remains low—context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support15 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions3Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-18 → 2026-09-223 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
FCF100% · 1 episode
NWBI100% · 1 episode
BKU66.7% · 1 episode
PFS66.7% · 1 episode
IBCP33.3% · 1 episode
PEBO33.3% · 1 episode
EBC0% · 0 episodes
FLG0% · 0 episodes
TFSL0% · 0 episodes