Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 14 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 2 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 41%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth1 up · 1 downRelative median unavailable

Capital-flow alignment41%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow

Activity nowNormalActivity score 45/100 · lift 1.0×

Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook

EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events

TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

THU, FEB 26CBU filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, MAY 7BHRB filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations

Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast

WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

9/9 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BFST, BHRB, CBU, IBOC, MBIN, OBK, OCFC, TRST.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The $0.1 million increase was due to a decrease in interest expense, and an increase in non-interest income, partially offset by a decrease in interest income, and an increase in non-interest expense for the three months ended March 31, 2026, compared to the three months ended March 31, 2025.”
BHRB 10-Q · 2026-05-08

credit / rates

“The loss of any combination of these borrowers, or a significant decline in their borrowings due to fluctuations related to their business needs or as a result of general economic conditions, could adversely affect our results of operations if we are unable to replace their borrowings with similarly priced new loans or investments.”
BHRB 10-K · 2026-02-27

demand / volume

“If the economies in our primary markets experience an overall decline as a result of a natural disaster, adverse weather, or other disaster, demand for loans and our other products and services could be reduced.”
BFST 10-K · 2026-02-26

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SSBMoving with group

BHRB · text peer

CNOBMoving with group

BHRB · text peer

PFSNot confirming

OCFC · text peer

EBCNot confirming

BHRB · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately

BFSTBHRBTMPMBINTRSTCBUOCFCIBOCOBK

7/9 active1 rising · 1 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now

BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.

Most unusual · 100/100

—

Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions

BHRBBurke & Herbert Financial Servi

Elevated · 80/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

TMPTompkins Financial Corporation

Elevated · 74/100

—

Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions

MBINMerchants Bancorp

Elevated · 72/100

—

Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions

TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NY

Elevated · 71/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

CBUCommunity Financial System, Inc.

Elevated · 64/100

+0.9%

Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions

OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.

Elevated · 61/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

IBOCInternational Bancshares Corporation

Quiet · 50/100

-0.3%

Watch / laggardActive in 100% of observed group sessions

OBKOrigin Bancorp, Inc.

Quiet · 44/100

—

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

View exact member values

TICKER	Company	Role now	Today	Observed history	Trader interpretation
BFST	Business First Bancshares, Inc.	Most unusual	—	0% of 1 sessions	Most unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
BHRB	Burke & Herbert Financial Servi	Participating	—	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TMP	Tompkins Financial Corporation	Participating	—	100% of 1 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
MBIN	Merchants Bancorp	Participating	—	100% of 1 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
TRST	TrustCo Bank Corp NY	Participating	—	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CBU	Community Financial System, Inc.	Participating	+0.9%	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
OCFC	OceanFirst Financial Corp.	Participating	—	0% of 1 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
IBOC	International Bancshares Corporation	Quiet / lagging	-0.3%	100% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
OBK	Origin Bancorp, Inc.	Quiet / lagging	—	0% of 1 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome

POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Low structural sample

Only 1 completed episode across 1 active session; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support2 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed

Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity

Active sessions1Completed session observations, not trades

2026-07-081 active session100% composition consistency through the episode

MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS

IBOC100% · 1 episode

MBIN100% · 1 episode

TMP100% · 1 episode

BFST0% · 0 episodes

BHRB0% · 0 episodes

CBU0% · 0 episodes

OBK0% · 0 episodes

OCFC0% · 0 episodes

TRST0% · 0 episodes