Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 14 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 5 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 52%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth3 up · 1 downRelative median unavailable

Capital-flow alignment52%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow

Activity nowHotActivity score 82/100 · lift 1.3×

Evidence depth3 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook

EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events

TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

THU, FEB 26STBA filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, MAR 3ALRS filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations

Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast

WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

26/27 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across CFFN, CTBI, FCF, GABC, HAFC, HTH, IBCP, LKFN, NBHC, PRK, SMBC, STBA, TCBK, THFF.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The decrease in interest expense was primarily due to lower levels of borrowings and decreased interest rates.”
STBA 10-K · 2026-02-27

credit / rates

“d increase credit losses and adversely affect our credit portfolios and provision for credit losses: (i) increased cost of borrowings, (ii) additional borrowings and increased leverage, (iii) drawdown from savings due to business disruption, (iv) financial difficulties, or (v) business losses, particularly for borrowers in our C&I or CRE portfolio.”
STBA 10-K · 2026-02-27

demand / volume

“The following table presents the composition of deposits at the dates presented: (dollars in thousands) March 31, 2026 December 31, 2025 $ Change Customer Deposits Noninterest-bearing demand $ 2,273,411 $ 2,160,645 $ 112,766 Interest-bearing demand 784,326 790,278 (5,952) Money market 2,164,415 2,016,560 147,855 Savings 883,213 862,118 21,095 Certificates of deposit 1,979,492 1,948,792 30,700 Total Customer Deposits 8,084,857 7,778,393 306,464 Brokered Deposits Money market 100,362 180,438 (80,076) Total Brokered Deposits 100,362 180,438 (80,076) Total Deposits $ 8,185,219 $ 7,958,831 $ 226,388 Total deposits increased $226.4 million, or 2.8 percent, at March 31, 2026 compared to December 31, 2025 as a result of our continued focus on growing our deposit franchise.”
STBA 10-Q · 2026-05-08

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

ASBMoving with group

SRCE · text peer

BHRBMoving with group

NBHC · text peer

CBSHNot confirming

GABC · text peer

WABCRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

THFF · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately

STBABANRSRCEGSBCCFFNALRSCTBITOWNNBTBIBCPLKFNHAFCPRKBANFFCFSMBCMBWMNWBINBHCPEBOHTHTCBKGABCEFSC

21/27 active3 rising · 2 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now

STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.

Most unusual · 100/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 25% of observed group sessions

BANRBanner Corporation

Elevated · 83/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions

SRCE1st Source Corporation

Elevated · 77/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions

GSBCGreat Southern Bancorp, Inc.

Elevated · 59/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 41.7% of observed group sessions

CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc.

Elevated · 54/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions

ALRSAlerus Financial Corporation

Elevated · 53/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions

CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc.

Elevated · 48/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

TOWNTowneBank

Elevated · 48/100

+0.7%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 25% of observed group sessions

NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc.

Elevated · 45/100

+0.5%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 25% of observed group sessions

IBCPIndependent Bank Corporation

Elevated · 43/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

LKFNLakeland Financial Corporation

Elevated · 39/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions

HAFCHanmi Financial Corporation

Elevated · 38/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions

PRKPark National Corporation

Elevated · 35/100

-0.0%

Flow divergenceActive in 25% of observed group sessions

BANFBancFirst Corporation

Elevated · 32/100

-0.1%

Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions

FCFFirst

Elevated · 31/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions

SMBCSouthern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.

Elevated · 29/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions

MBWMMercantile Bank Corporation

Elevated · 28/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions

NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.

Elevated · 28/100

—

Flow divergenceActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions

NBHCNational Bank Holdings Corporat

Elevated · 27/100

—

Active; unclassifiedActive in 25% of observed group sessions

PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.

Quiet · 25/100

—

Watch / laggardActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions

HTHHilltop Holdings Inc.

Quiet · 25/100

+0.2%

Watch / laggardActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions

TCBKTriCo Bancshares

Quiet · 22/100

—

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

GABCGerman American Bancorp, Inc.

Quiet · 20/100

—

Watch / laggardActive in 8.3% of observed group sessions

EFSCEnterprise Financial Services C

Quiet · 19/100

—

Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions

View exact member values

TICKER	Company	Role now	Today	Observed history	Trader interpretation
STBA	S&T Bancorp, Inc.	Most unusual	—	25% of 12 sessions	Most unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
BANR	Banner Corporation	Participating	—	8.3% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SRCE	1st Source Corporation	Participating	—	50% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
GSBC	Great Southern Bancorp, Inc.	Participating	—	41.7% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CFFN	Capitol Federal Financial, Inc.	Participating	—	16.7% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ALRS	Alerus Financial Corporation	Participating	—	16.7% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CTBI	Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.	Participating	—	0% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TOWN	TowneBank	Participating	+0.7%	25% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NBTB	NBT Bancorp Inc.	Participating	+0.5%	25% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
IBCP	Independent Bank Corporation	Participating	—	0% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LKFN	Lakeland Financial Corporation	Participating	—	8.3% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HAFC	Hanmi Financial Corporation	Participating	—	8.3% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PRK	Park National Corporation	Participating	-0.0%	25% of 12 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
BANF	BancFirst Corporation	Participating	-0.1%	0% of 12 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
FCF	First	Participating	—	50% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SMBC	Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.	Participating	—	8.3% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
MBWM	Mercantile Bank Corporation	Participating	—	8.3% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NWBI	Northwest Bancshares, Inc.	Participating	—	8.3% of 12 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
NBHC	National Bank Holdings Corporat	Participating	—	25% of 12 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PEBO	Peoples Bancorp Inc.	Quiet / lagging	—	8.3% of 12 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
HTH	Hilltop Holdings Inc.	Quiet / lagging	+0.2%	8.3% of 12 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
TCBK	TriCo Bancshares	Quiet / lagging	—	0% of 12 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
GABC	German American Bancorp, Inc.	Quiet / lagging	—	8.3% of 12 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EFSC	Enterprise Financial Services C	Quiet / lagging	—	0% of 12 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome

POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Low structural sample

Only 3 completed episodes across 12 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support27 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed

Completed episodes3Separate periods of broad group activity

Active sessions12Completed session observations, not trades

2026-07-07 → 2026-07-104 active sessions7.7% composition consistency through the episode

2026-06-24 → 2026-07-027 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session

2026-06-171 active session100% composition consistency through the episode

MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS

FCF50% · 3 episodes

SRCE50% · 2 episodes

GSBC41.7% · 2 episodes

NBHC25% · 2 episodes

NBTB25% · 1 episode

PRK25% · 2 episodes

STBA25% · 2 episodes

TOWN25% · 2 episodes

ALRS16.7% · 2 episodes

CFFN16.7% · 1 episode

UVSP16.7% · 1 episode

WASH16.7% · 2 episodes

BANR8.3% · 1 episode

GABC8.3% · 1 episode

HAFC8.3% · 1 episode

HTH8.3% · 1 episode

LKFN8.3% · 1 episode

MBWM8.3% · 1 episode

NWBI8.3% · 1 episode

PEBO8.3% · 1 episode

SMBC8.3% · 1 episode

THFF8.3% · 1 episode

BANF0% · 0 episodes

CTBI0% · 0 episodes

EFSC0% · 0 episodes

IBCP0% · 0 episodes

TCBK0% · 0 episodes