Themes / Cluster
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 9 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READBroad price confirmation, weak flow alignment

4 of 4 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 3.5 effective names. OCFC is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 3%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth4 of 4 falling-1.2% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment3%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 16/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth2 support daysLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 15:50–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferencePFS registered the first material downside path

    -0.58% session path at the threshold · PFS

  2. 5-minute inferenceHOPE registered a material downside path

    -0.57% session path at the threshold · HOPE

  3. 5-minute inferenceBKU registered a material downside path

    -0.39% session path at the threshold · BKU

  4. 5-minute inferenceEBC registered a material downside path

    -0.41% session path at the threshold · EBC

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, AUG 5BKU filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, AUG 6EBC filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 3.5 effective names. PFS represents 34.0% of absolute path energy; 4 of 4 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBalanced34.0% from the largest path
Effective names3.5 / 4Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth4/4 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverPFS 34.0%63.7% from the top two paths
PFS34.0%Dominant mover · path -1.43% · basket -0.36pp
HOPE29.7%Dominant mover · path -1.25% · basket -0.31pp
BKU27.1%Dominant mover · path -1.14% · basket -0.28pp
EBC9.3%Aligned contributor · path -0.39% · basket -0.10pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. PFS moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.58%
  2. HOPE registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.57%
  3. BKU registered a material lower path45m after the first price move · path -0.39%
  4. EBC registered a material lower path45m after the first price move · path -0.41%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 8 · 15:50 ETMove visible 11:10 ETSep 9 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.19%Strongest relative path EBCWeakest relative path PFS

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

4/4 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across EBC, HOPE, PFS.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase was driven by a $4.8 million increase in interest income and a $2.0 million decrease in interest expense.”

BKU 10-Q · 2026-08-06
credit / rates

“March 31, 2025 was primarily due to an increase in our total borrowings due to FHLB advances assumed in connection with our merger with HarborOne.”

EBC 10-Q · 2026-05-08
demand / volume

“51 The following graph presents trends in the deposit mix and cost of deposits (in millions): Quarterly average cost of deposits 2.12% 2.18% Non-interest bearing as a % of total deposits 30.5% 28.8% Spot average APY of total deposits 2.09% 2.10% Non-interest bearing demand deposits declined by 2%, or $166 million during the quarter ended March 31, 2026, primarily due to seasonality.”

BKU 10-Q · 2026-05-07
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

OCFCMoving with group

PFS · text peer

BANCNot confirming

HOPE · text peer

CNOBNot confirming

EBC · text peer

BHRBNot confirming

EBC · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BKUPFSEBCHOPE

3/4 active0 rising · 4 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BKUBankUnited, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-0.9%
Dominant path moverActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.
Elevated · 46/100
-1.3%
Dominant path moverActive in 0% of observed group sessions
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.
Elevated · 39/100
-0.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
HOPEHope Bancorp, Inc.
Quiet · 0/100
-1.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BKUBankUnited, Inc.Most unusual-0.9%0% of 0 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.Participating-1.3%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
EBCEastern Bankshares, Inc.Participating-0.2%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
HOPEHope Bancorp, Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.1%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 0 completed episodes across 0 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support2 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes0Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions0Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-084 names in the durable cohort
2026-09-043 names in the durable cohort
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
BKU0% · 0 episodes
EBC0% · 0 episodes
HOPE0% · 0 episodes
PFS0% · 0 episodes