Feed / RXO

RXO, Inc.

RXO

Industrials · 23.39 +9.5% today

Dominant mover · weak group confirmationMarket checked 2 Oct, 15:55 GMT-4

Market read

RXO dominates a concentrated Freight & Logistics move.

RXO accounts for 48.6% of the group's measured movement across 3.3 effective names. raw member direction is mixed; 5 of 6 session-normalized paths align to the upside. Capital-flow agreement is 7%, so confirmation is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured group move.

MOVE ANATOMY

Is this move genuinely shared?

Session-normalized 5m paths
Role in the moveDominant mover#1 of 6 by movement share
Group movement share48.6%Absolute path energy—not portfolio weight
Relative path+9.48%aligned
Effective breadth3.3 / 6concentrated
Relative alignment5/6upside path · 0 counter-moving
Capital-flow agreement7%not yet clean
SEQUENCE READ

RXO was the first measured mover. RXO crossed its material path threshold at 09:50 ET. CHRW, PRMB, EXPD followed.

What changed
  • The operating loss narrowed by 2.0M.
  • Revenue decreased 0.6% versus the comparable filing period.
EVIDENCE COVERAGE

5 of 6 members in Freight & Logistics are active. 0 of 3 disclosed connections are confirming.

What would change this read
  • At least 4 of 6 durable members become active together.
  • Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
  • A filing-linked outsider such as FWRD begins moving with the group.

Invalidation: The live read weakens if participation falls to 2 of 6 members or fewer.

Watch this read

Research brief

The story so far

Industrials · Trucking

RXO accounts for 48.6% of the group's measured movement across 3.3 effective names. raw member direction is mixed; 5 of 6 session-normalized paths align to the upside. Capital-flow agreement is 7%, so confirmation is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured group move.

Evidence that supports
  • The operating loss narrowed by 2.0M.
Evidence that challenges
  • Revenue decreased 0.6% versus the comparable filing period.
  • Operating cash flow remained negative at -7.0M.
What would clarify the read
  • At least 4 of 6 durable members become active together.
  • Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
  • A filing-linked outsider such as FWRD begins moving with the group.

Company research

Understand the business, not just the ticker

As of Oct 3, 2026
Business model and earnings drivers

Use the company’s filings to identify the few operating, demand, cost, capital and regulatory variables that determine its earnings power.

Key research questions
  • Which operating variable is changing?
  • Is that change durable, cyclical or one-off?
  • What evidence would disprove the current interpretation?
Annual periods6
Price observations343
Usable filing statements68
Verified relationships3
Evidence supporting the case
  • Latest annual revenue changed +26.2% year over year.
  • Net margin changed +4.6 percentage points in the latest annual period.
  • Restructuring and cost reductions has repeated favorable evidence across 3 filings.
Evidence challenging the case
  • Diluted shares increased 26.3% in the latest annual period.
  • Input and raw-material costs has repeated adverse evidence across 5 filings.
Questions before a position
  • EV/sales is 59% below the available filing-peer median; determine whether growth and quality justify the difference.
Longer-term price context

Price as of Oct 2, 2026

23.39
6m+56.5%12m+52.8%24m—
Annual trajectory

Reported annual revenue and per-share history. This is accounting history, not a forecast.

PeriodRevenueYoYDiluted EPSShare change
2021-12-31$4.7B+39.7%$1.30+0.0%
2022-12-31$4.8B+2.3%$0.79+0.5%
2023-12-31$3.9B-18.1%$0.03+3.2%
2024-12-31$4.5B+15.9%$-2.17+11.7%
2025-12-31$5.7B+26.2%$-0.59+26.3%

What management says matters

Persistent and emerging business drivers

Credit and interest ratesmixed · 5 filings
“The primary source of cash in the first six months of 2025 was $34 million in net proceeds from borrowings on revolving credit facilities, partially offset by $18 million in payments for tax withholdings primarily attributable to the vesting of stock compensa…”
10-Q · Aug 6, 2026 ↗
Input and raw-material costsnegative · 5 filings
“The year-over-year increase in the first six months of 2026 was driven by a $354 million increase in truck brokerage revenue, primarily as a result of a 27% increase in revenue per load driven by increases in freight rates and fuel prices.”
10-Q · Aug 6, 2026 ↗
Restructuring and cost reductionspositive · 3 filings
“Goodwill impairment in 2025 was $12 million and was driven by the impairment of our ground and air express reporting unit resulting from our annual goodwill assessment.”
10-K · Feb 9, 2026 ↗
Energy and commodity pricesmixed · 2 filings
“The year-over-year increase in the first six months of 2026 was driven by a $354 million increase in truck brokerage revenue, primarily as a result of a 27% increase in revenue per load driven by increases in freight rates and fuel prices.”
10-Q · Aug 6, 2026 ↗

Valuation discipline

Descriptive valuation snapshot

Price/sales 0.7× · EV/sales 0.7×. Comparisons use only industry-matched filing peers.

Scenario scaffold

Mechanical 2.0-year scenarios are available as editable assumptions, not consensus.

Price action

How the market is pricing the story

23.39+9.5% today

Jodie does not have enough daily observations to draw a useful short-term chart for this asset. The latest quoted price was checked 2 Oct, 15:55 GMT-4; this is a coverage limitation, not a flat-price conclusion.

Developments

No sourced recent-development timeline yet

Jodie has not returned a relevant primary source or news item for RXO. This is an evidence-coverage gap, not a conclusion that nothing material happened.

Business and financial condition

Reported financial figures are not available yet

Jodie has not returned structured SEC XBRL fundamentals for this asset. This is a coverage limitation, not an assessment of the business or its financial health.

Latest filing assessment · baseline

The latest filing shows material pressure

10-Q filed 2026-05-07 against the comparable filing from 2025-05-07.

cautious
OperationscautiousEvidence score -1
liquiditycautiousEvidence score -1
valuationdiscount

What improved

  • The operating loss narrowed by 2.0M.

What weakened

  • Revenue decreased 0.6% versus the comparable filing period.
  • Operating cash flow remained negative at -7.0M.

Filing receipts

“Financial Condition Our asset and liability balances are summarized as follows: (In millions) March 31, 2026 December 31, 2025 $ Change % Change Total current assets $ 1,335 $ 1,317 $ 18 1.4 % Total long-term assets 1,933 1,960 (27) (1.4) % Total current liabilities 1,048 1,038 10 1.0 % Total long-term liabilities 711 698 13 1.9 % Total assets decreased by $9 million from December 31, 2025 to March 31, 2026, primarily due to (i) a $10 million decrease in accounts receivable as a result of a sequential decrease in revenue, (ii) an $11 million decrease in identifiable intangible assets as a result of amortization and (iii) a $16 million decrease in operating lease assets as a result of amorti...”

“Total liabilities increased by $23 million from December 31, 2025 to March 31, 2026, primarily due to a $43 million increase in long-term debt as a result of debt refinancing transactions completed in the first quarter of 2026, partially offset by a $14 million decrease in short-term and long-term operating lease liabilities as a result of lease payments.”

“The decrease was primarily due to a $5 million decrease in intangible amortization expense.”

Retrospective baseline calibration. It was generated after the filing date and is not part of Jodie's live track record.

Business ecosystem

The relationships behind RXO

Customers, suppliers, partners and competitors named in company filings—not inferred from headlines.

Depends on

UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.supplierNov 6, 2025 ▾

“The Coyote Acquisition On September 16, 2024 (the “acquisition date”), the Company acquired the technology-driven, asset-light based truckload freight brokerage services business, as well as certain assets used to conduct haulage, dedicated transport and ware…”

LSTRLandstar System, Inc.competitorFeb 9, 2026 ▾

“Hunt, Landstar System, Total Quality Logistics, and Uber Freight.”

UBERUber Technologies, Inc.competitorFeb 9, 2026 ▾

“Hunt, Landstar System, Total Quality Logistics, and Uber Freight.”

Filing peers

Companies whose filings use similar operating language.

Open the three relationships above to see Jodie’s filing proof. Pro unlocks every receipt, and alerts when connected names begin moving. Unlock the full network →

What is moving around it

Live connections

RXO is currently a Early Follower in the organic co-movement group Freight & Logistics. This group is discovered from market behaviour rather than assigned from an industry taxonomy. 3 filing-linked names are in the relationship map; none is currently confirmed as moving with the group.

Context history

Theme membership history

No durable theme membership has been observed for this name yet.