Feed / AFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

AFRM

Financial Services · 70.89 +2.4% today

Partial group confirmationMarket checked 2 Oct, 15:45 GMT-4

Market read

Affirm Holdings, Inc.'s move is being confirmed by its market group.

AFRM accounts for 1.9% of the group's measured movement across 7.9 effective names. raw member direction is mixed; 6 of 12 session-normalized paths align to the downside. Capital-flow agreement is 29%, so confirmation is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured group move.

MOVE ANATOMY

Is this move genuinely shared?

Session-normalized 5m paths
Role in the moveCounter-move#11 of 12 by movement share
Group movement share1.9%Absolute path energy—not portfolio weight
Relative path+0.52%counter
Effective breadth7.9 / 12broad
Relative alignment6/12downside path · 5 counter-moving
Capital-flow agreement29%not yet clean
SEQUENCE READ

AMPL, HUBS, ABNB moved materially before AFRM. AFRM crossed its material path threshold at 09:50 ET. ASAN followed.

What changed
  • Revenue increased 22.7% versus the comparable filing period.
EVIDENCE COVERAGE

6 of 40 members in Software Stocks are active. 0 of 8 disclosed connections are confirming.

What would change this read
  • At least 26 of 40 durable members become active together.
  • Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
  • A filing-linked outsider such as CRM begins moving with the group.

Invalidation: The live read weakens if participation falls to 14 of 40 members or fewer.

Watch this read

Research brief

The story so far

Financial Services · Credit Services

AFRM accounts for 1.9% of the group's measured movement across 7.9 effective names. raw member direction is mixed; 6 of 12 session-normalized paths align to the downside. Capital-flow agreement is 29%, so confirmation is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured group move.

Evidence that supports
  • Revenue increased 22.7% versus the comparable filing period.
  • Operating margin improved 29.5 percentage points.
  • Net income increased 3569.8% versus the comparable filing period.
Evidence that challenges

No thresholded adverse filing evidence is available yet.

What would clarify the read
  • At least 26 of 40 durable members become active together.
  • Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
  • A filing-linked outsider such as CRM begins moving with the group.

Company research

Understand the business, not just the ticker

As of Oct 2, 2026
Business model and earnings drivers

Use the company’s filings to identify the few operating, demand, cost, capital and regulatory variables that determine its earnings power.

Key research questions
  • Which operating variable is changing?
  • Is that change durable, cyclical or one-off?
  • What evidence would disprove the current interpretation?
Annual periods8
Price observations342
Usable filing statements157
Verified relationships13
Evidence supporting the case
  • Latest annual revenue changed +32.2% year over year.
  • Operating margin changed +12.5 percentage points in the latest annual period.
  • Net margin changed +43.7 percentage points in the latest annual period.
Evidence challenging the case
  • Diluted shares increased 2.3% in the latest annual period.
Questions before a position
  • P/E is 57% below the available filing-peer median; determine whether growth and quality justify the difference.
  • EV/sales is 342% above the available filing-peer median; determine whether growth and quality justify the difference.
Longer-term price context

Price as of Oct 1, 2026

70.42
6m+54.6%12m-3.6%24m—
Annual trajectory

Reported annual revenue and per-share history. This is accounting history, not a forecast.

PeriodRevenueYoYDiluted EPSShare change
2022-06-30$559.2M+30.2%$-2.51—
2023-06-30$626.9M+12.1%$-3.34+4.8%
2024-06-30$2.3B+270.5%$-1.67+4.9%
2025-06-30$3.2B+38.8%$0.15+10.1%
2026-06-30$4.3B+32.2%$5.53+2.3%

What management says matters

Persistent and emerging business drivers

Macroeconomic conditionsmixed · 4 filings
“Seasonality We experience seasonal fluctuations in our business as a result of consumer spending patterns, including Affirm Card, which we expect to mimic the seasonality of our general business in the near term.”
10-Q · May 7, 2026 ↗
Supply chain and availabilitynegative · 2 filings
“Gains and losses resulting from these translations are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) (“AOCI”).”
10-K · Aug 27, 2026 ↗
Restructuring and cost reductionsmixed · 1 filings
“This was partially offset by the absence of investment impairments during the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a $3.0 million impairment for the same period in 2024.”
10-Q · Nov 6, 2025 ↗

Valuation discipline

Descriptive valuation snapshot

Price/sales 5.8× · EV/sales 7.7×. Comparisons use only industry-matched filing peers.

Scenario scaffold

Scenarios are withheld for Financial Services until sector-specific earnings and capital metrics are available; generic revenue/P/S scaffolds would be misleading.

Price action

How the market is pricing the story

70.89+2.4% today

Jodie does not have enough daily observations to draw a useful short-term chart for this asset. The latest quoted price was checked 2 Oct, 15:45 GMT-4; this is a coverage limitation, not a flat-price conclusion.

Developments

No sourced recent-development timeline yet

Jodie has not returned a relevant primary source or news item for AFRM. This is an evidence-coverage gap, not a conclusion that nothing material happened.

Business and financial condition

Reported financial figures are not available yet

Jodie has not returned structured SEC XBRL fundamentals for this asset. This is a coverage limitation, not an assessment of the business or its financial health.

Latest filing assessment · baseline

Fundamentals strengthened in the latest filing

10-Q filed 2026-05-07 against the comparable filing from 2025-05-09.

constructive
OperationsconstructiveEvidence score +4
liquidityneutralEvidence score 0
valuationpremium

What improved

  • Revenue increased 22.7% versus the comparable filing period.
  • Operating margin improved 29.5 percentage points.
  • Net income increased 3569.8% versus the comparable filing period.

What weakened

No thresholded deterioration was identified.

Filing receipts

“The increase is primarily due to an increase of funding debt and notes issued by securitization trusts during the three and nine months ended March 31, 2026, partially offset by favorable pricing terms.”

“Additionally, the decrease was also driven by a $15.4 million, or 65%, decrease in Shopify warrant expense during the nine months ended March 31, 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, primarily due to an amendment made in our partnership agreement, which extended the period of benefit over which we amortize the commercial agreement asset from six to nine years.”

“Loss on loan purchase commitment increased by $10.7 million, or 19%, and $53.8 million, or 30%, for the three and nine months ended March 31, 2026, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2025, primarily due to an increase in total volume of loans purchased.”

Retrospective baseline calibration. It was generated after the filing date and is not part of Jodie's live track record.

Business ecosystem

The relationships behind AFRM

Customers, suppliers, partners and competitors named in company filings—not inferred from headlines.

Depends on

FISIFiling-linked namepartnerMay 7, 2026 ▾

“Affirm Bank Applications On January 23, 2026, we submitted applications to the Nevada Financial Institutions Division and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) to establish Affirm Bank, a proposed Nevada-chartered industrial loan company.”

AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.partnerAug 28, 2025 ▾

“In addition, as we did when we initially formed our partnership with Shopify and when we entered into the Amended and Restated Installment Financing Services Agreement with Amazon, we may issue additional shares of our Class A common stock or securities conve…”

Depended on by

SIGSignet Jewelers LimitedpartnerMar 19, 2026 ▾

“In North American markets, customers are offered revolving and promotional credit plans under Signet’s private label credit card programs, a lease purchase option provided by Progressive Leasing, and installment loan and split-payment options provided by Affi…”

Filing peers

Companies whose filings use similar operating language.

Open the three relationships above to see Jodie’s filing proof. Pro unlocks 11 more links, every receipt, and alerts when connected names begin moving. Unlock the full network →

What is moving around it

Live connections

AFRM is currently a Participant in the organic co-movement group Software Stocks. This group is discovered from market behaviour rather than assigned from an industry taxonomy. 3 filing-linked names are in the relationship map; none is currently confirmed as moving with the group.

Context history

Theme membership history

No durable theme membership has been observed for this name yet.