Feed / UPST

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

UPST

Financial Services · 22.93 -0.3% today

Participation confirmed · construction unavailableMarket checked 1 Oct, 15:55 GMT-4

Market read

Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s move is spreading beyond its market group.

The latest filing evidence is available. 6 of 40 group members are active now; 1 filing-linked outsider is moving with the group, and 0 of 0 directly disclosed connections are confirming.

What changed
  • Revenue increased 41.7% versus the comparable filing period.
Company-0.3% todayVolume comparison unavailable
Market group6 of 40 activeSoftware Stocks · inactive
Disclosed network0 of 4 confirmingNo filing-linked name is confirming now
What would change this read
  • At least 26 of 40 durable members become active together.
  • Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
  • CRM remains aligned with the group in the next market snapshot.

Invalidation: The live read weakens if participation falls to 14 of 40 members or fewer.

Watch this read

Research brief

The story so far

Financial Services · Credit Services

The latest filing evidence is available. 6 of 40 group members are active now; 1 filing-linked outsider is moving with the group, and 0 of 0 directly disclosed connections are confirming.

Evidence that supports
  • Revenue increased 41.7% versus the comparable filing period.
  • Operating margin improved 2.2 percentage points.
  • Net income increased 195.0% versus the comparable filing period.
Evidence that challenges

No thresholded adverse filing evidence is available yet.

What would clarify the read
  • At least 26 of 40 durable members become active together.
  • Capital-flow agreement rises above 55%.
  • CRM remains aligned with the group in the next market snapshot.

Company research

Understand the business, not just the ticker

As of Oct 2, 2026
Business model and earnings drivers

Use the company’s filings to identify the few operating, demand, cost, capital and regulatory variables that determine its earnings power.

Key research questions
  • Which operating variable is changing?
  • Is that change durable, cyclical or one-off?
  • What evidence would disprove the current interpretation?
Annual periods7
Price observations342
Usable filing statements130
Verified relationships1
Evidence supporting the case
  • Latest annual revenue changed +64.0% year over year.
  • Operating margin changed +31.2 percentage points in the latest annual period.
  • Net margin changed +25.3 percentage points in the latest annual period.
Evidence challenging the case
  • Diluted shares increased 20.2% in the latest annual period.
  • Operating cash flow was only -2.756x net income in the latest annual period.
  • Credit and interest rates has repeated adverse evidence across 5 filings.
Questions before a position
  • P/E is 112% above the available filing-peer median; determine whether growth and quality justify the difference.
  • EV/sales is 86% below the available filing-peer median; determine whether growth and quality justify the difference.
Longer-term price context

Price as of Oct 1, 2026

22.93
6m-9.6%12m-54.9%24m—
Annual trajectory

Reported annual revenue and per-share history. This is accounting history, not a forecast.

PeriodRevenueYoYDiluted EPSShare change
2021-12-31$848.6M+271.2%$1.43—
2022-12-31$842.4M-0.7%$-1.31-12.7%
2023-12-31$513.6M-39.0%$-2.87+1.2%
2024-12-31$636.5M+23.9%$-1.44+6.8%
2025-12-31$1.0B+64.0%$0.45+20.2%

What management says matters

Persistent and emerging business drivers

Credit and interest ratesnegative · 5 filings
“Net Cash from Financing Activities Net cash provided by financing activities was $100.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026 primarily due to $170.7 million of net proceeds from borrowings, and $37.5 million change in payables to investors, partiall…”
10-Q · Aug 4, 2026 ↗
Legal and regulatory exposurenegative · 3 filings
“The increase was partially offset by a $7.0 million decrease in legal and compliance expenses.”
10-K · Feb 10, 2026 ↗
Demand and volumemixed · 1 filings
“These increases were primarily due to model improvements and product initiatives, which resulted in an increase in the number of qualified borrower demand.”
10-Q · Aug 4, 2026 ↗

Valuation discipline

Descriptive valuation snapshot

Price/sales 2.4× · EV/sales 1.7×. Comparisons use only industry-matched filing peers.

Scenario scaffold

Scenarios are withheld for Financial Services until sector-specific earnings and capital metrics are available; generic revenue/P/S scaffolds would be misleading.

Price action

How the market is pricing the story

22.93-0.3% today

Jodie does not have enough daily observations to draw a useful short-term chart for this asset. The latest quoted price was checked 1 Oct, 15:55 GMT-4; this is a coverage limitation, not a flat-price conclusion.

Developments

No sourced recent-development timeline yet

Jodie has not returned a relevant primary source or news item for UPST. This is an evidence-coverage gap, not a conclusion that nothing material happened.

Business and financial condition

Reported financial figures are not available yet

Jodie has not returned structured SEC XBRL fundamentals for this asset. This is a coverage limitation, not an assessment of the business or its financial health.

Latest filing assessment

Fundamentals strengthened in the latest filing

10-Q filed 2026-08-04 against the comparable filing from 2025-08-05.

constructive
OperationsconstructiveEvidence score +4
liquidityneutralEvidence score 0
valuationdiscount

Capital and cash conversion

Investment load increased

watch

Capital spending consumed more revenue while free-cash-flow margin declined.

Capital spending YoY
+4080.9%
Capital spending / revenue
+0.7%
Free-cash-flow margin
-40.8%
FCF margin change
-12.4 pts

Capex, revenue, and operating cash flow are matched to the same reported duration. Reported accounting context, not a forecast or trading recommendation.

What improved

  • Revenue increased 41.7% versus the comparable filing period.
  • Operating margin improved 2.2 percentage points.
  • Net income increased 195.0% versus the comparable filing period.

What weakened

No thresholded deterioration was identified.

Filing receipts

“The increase was primarily driven by dividend income earned on certain cash accounts and expense on convertible notes, which were included within other income, net, for the three months ended June 30, 2025 compared to interest income and interest expense, for the three months ended June 30, 2026.”

“The increase was primarily driven by dividend income earned on certain cash accounts and expense on convertible notes, which were included within other income, net, for the six months ended June 30, 2025 compared to interest income and interest expense, for the six months ended June 30, 2026.”

“The increase in non-cash adjustments was primarily related to $79.3 million of stock-based compensation expense and $74.1 million of changes in fair value of loans, partially offset by $20.8 million net gain on loan servicing rights from loan sales.”

Historical filing backfill generated after the original filing window. It is not part of Jodie's live track record.

Business ecosystem

The relationships behind UPST

Customers, suppliers, partners and competitors named in company filings—not inferred from headlines.

Filing peers

Companies whose filings use similar operating language.

Open the three relationships above to see Jodie’s filing proof. Pro unlocks 4 more links, every receipt, and alerts when connected names begin moving. Unlock the full network →

What is moving around it

Live connections

UPST is currently a Early Follower in the organic co-movement group Software Stocks. This group is discovered from market behaviour rather than assigned from an industry taxonomy. No verified filing-linked names are available yet.

Context history

Theme membership history

No durable theme membership has been observed for this name yet.