Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 14 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Consumer Retail

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 8 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 51%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth6 up · 2 downRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment51%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 70/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, OCT 21CHDN filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, MAY 26BBWI filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

15/15 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across ARHS, CMG, GPK, NKE, SBH.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The 2025 first quarter rate was higher than our combined estimated federal and state statutory rates primarily due to accrued interest expense related to unrecognized tax benefits.”

BBWI 10-Q · 2026-05-27
capital investment / capacity affecting capex

“The decrease over prior year is primarily due to the timing of capital expenditures related to restaurant remodel activity.”

BJRI 10-Q · 2026-05-06
restructuring

“The 2025 second quarter rate was higher than our combined estimated federal and state statutory rates largely due to the transition of certain members of the leadership team, primarily related to severance benefits.”

BBWI 10-Q · 2025-08-28
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

EATNot confirming

CMG · text peer

SWBINot confirming

BJRI · text peer

TTMINot confirming

BJRI · text peer

OLEDNot confirming

BJRI · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BJRICMGJBIPOOLSBHBBWINKEPLAYCHDNUNFFWRGOLLIIARTGPKARHS

11/15 active6 rising · 2 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
—
Active; unclassifiedActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Elevated · 35/100
+4.5%
Flow confirmerActive in 100% of observed group sessions
JBIJanus International Group, Inc.
Elevated · 33/100
—
Active; unclassifiedActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
POOLPool Corporation
Elevated · 30/100
-1.3%
Flow confirmerActive in 100% of observed group sessions
SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (Na
Elevated · 30/100
—
Active; unclassifiedActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc.
Elevated · 26/100
-1.0%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NKENIKE, Inc.
Elevated · 26/100
+1.3%
Flow confirmerActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
PLAYDave & Buster's Entertainment,
Elevated · 23/100
—
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CHDNChurchill Downs Incorporated
Elevated · 21/100
+0.6%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
UNFUniFirst Corporation
Elevated · 20/100
+0.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, I
Participating · 18/100
—
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
Quiet · 16/100
+1.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
IARTIntegra LifeSciences Holdings C
Quiet · 15/100
—
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
GPKGraphic Packaging Holding Compa
Quiet · 14/100
+2.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ARHSArhaus, Inc.
Quiet · 14/100
—
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc.Most unusual—33.3% of 3 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Participating+4.5%100% of 3 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
JBIJanus International Group, Inc.Participating—33.3% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
POOLPool CorporationParticipating-1.3%100% of 3 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (NaParticipating—33.3% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BBWIBath & Body Works, Inc.Participating-1.0%0% of 3 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
NKENIKE, Inc.Participating+1.3%66.7% of 3 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
PLAYDave & Buster's Entertainment,Participating—0% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedParticipating+0.6%33.3% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
UNFUniFirst CorporationParticipating+0.4%0% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, IParticipating—0% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.9%66.7% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
IARTIntegra LifeSciences Holdings CQuiet / lagging—0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompaQuiet / lagging+2.8%0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ARHSArhaus, Inc.Quiet / lagging—0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

One continuous episode spans 3 active sessions; the independent episode sample remains low—context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support4 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions3Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-08 → 2026-07-103 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
CMG100% · 1 episode
POOL100% · 1 episode
NKE66.7% · 1 episode
OLLI66.7% · 1 episode
BJRI33.3% · 1 episode
CHDN33.3% · 1 episode
JBI33.3% · 1 episode
SBH33.3% · 1 episode
ARHS0% · 0 episodes
BBWI0% · 0 episodes
FWRG0% · 0 episodes
GPK0% · 0 episodes
IART0% · 0 episodes
PLAY0% · 0 episodes
UNF0% · 0 episodes