Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Oil & Gas Refining

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

0 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the mixed across 7.3 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 17 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 10%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth10 up · 7 down+0.1% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment10%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 5/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth9 episodes33 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 10:05–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceBP registered the first material downside path

    -0.81% session path at the threshold · BP

  2. 5-minute inferenceBTE registered a material downside path

    -0.58% session path at the threshold · BTE

  3. 5-minute inferenceE registered a material downside path

    -0.57% session path at the threshold · E

  4. 5-minute inferenceMNR registered a material upside path

    +0.79% session path at the threshold · MNR

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.3 effective names. BP represents 22.7% of absolute path energy; 0 of 12 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionBroad22.7% from the largest path
Effective names7.3 / 1212 of 17 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverBP 22.7%38.6% from the top two paths
BP22.7%Independent direction · path -0.96% · basket -0.08pp
BTE15.9%Independent direction · path -0.67% · basket -0.06pp
CVE15.8%Independent direction · path +0.67% · basket +0.06pp
PTEN11.3%Independent direction · path +0.48% · basket +0.04pp
MNR10.0%Independent direction · path +0.42% · basket +0.04pp
OVV6.8%Independent direction · path +0.29% · basket +0.02pp
E5.8%Independent direction · path -0.25% · basket -0.02pp
PBR-A5.0%Independent direction · path +0.21% · basket +0.02pp
SU3.6%Independent direction · path +0.15% · basket +0.01pp
PR1.7%Flat / inactive path · path -0.07% · basket -0.01pp
PBR1.2%Flat / inactive path · path -0.05% · basket -0.00pp
CNQ0.1%Flat / inactive path · path +0.01% · basket +0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. BP moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.81%
  2. BTE registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.58%
  3. E registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.57%
  4. MNR registered a material higher path65m after the first price move · path +0.79%
  5. OVV registered a material higher path65m after the first price move · path +0.41%
  6. PBR registered a material lower path80m after the first price move · path -0.43%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 21 · 10:05 ETMove visible 11:10 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.08%Strongest relative path CVEWeakest relative path BP

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

FANGNot confirming

VNOM · text peer

SMNot confirming

PR · text peer

REPXNot confirming

VNOM · text peer

TALONot confirming

MNR · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
MNROVVETTEPRVNOMBPVETBTEPBRVISTPBR-ASUPTENCNQWDSCVE

5/17 active10 rising · 7 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
MNRMach Natural Resources LP
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.6%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 45.5% of observed group sessions
OVVOvintiv Inc.
Elevated · 49/100
+0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
EEni S.p.A.
Elevated · 47/100
-1.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 12.1% of observed group sessions
TTETotalEnergies SE
Quiet · 45/100
-1.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 27.3% of observed group sessions
PRPermian Resources Corporation
Elevated · 42/100
-0.5%
Flow confirmerActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
VNOMViper Energy, Inc.
Elevated · 42/100
+0.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
BPBP p.l.c.
Quiet · 41/100
-0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
VETVermilion Energy Inc.
Quiet · 40/100
-0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 9.1% of observed group sessions
BTEBaytex Energy Corp
Quiet · 39/100
-0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 9.1% of observed group sessions
PBRPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
Quiet · 36/100
+0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 21.2% of observed group sessions
VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.
Quiet · 35/100
-1.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
PBR-APetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
Quiet · 33/100
+0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 15.2% of observed group sessions
SUSuncor Energy Inc.
Quiet · 28/100
+0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 30.3% of observed group sessions
PTENPatterson-UTI Energy, Inc.
Quiet · 27/100
+1.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 9.1% of observed group sessions
CNQCanadian Natural Resources Limited
Quiet · 26/100
+0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
WDSWoodside Energy Group Limited
Quiet · 26/100
+0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 21.2% of observed group sessions
CVECenovus Energy Inc
Quiet · 25/100
+1.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 21.2% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
MNRMach Natural Resources LPMost unusual+0.6%45.5% of 33 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
OVVOvintiv Inc.Participating+0.2%18.2% of 33 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
EEni S.p.A.Participating-1.1%12.1% of 33 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TTETotalEnergies SEQuiet / lagging-1.0%27.3% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PRPermian Resources CorporationParticipating-0.5%18.2% of 33 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
VNOMViper Energy, Inc.Participating+0.5%18.2% of 33 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BPBP p.l.c.Quiet / lagging-0.9%18.2% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
VETVermilion Energy Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.9%9.1% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BTEBaytex Energy CorpQuiet / lagging-0.4%9.1% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PBRPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasQuiet / lagging+0.7%21.2% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.Quiet / lagging-1.1%18.2% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PBR-APetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - PetrobrasQuiet / lagging+0.9%15.2% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SUSuncor Energy Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.7%30.3% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PTENPatterson-UTI Energy, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.2%9.1% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CNQCanadian Natural Resources LimitedQuiet / lagging+0.7%18.2% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WDSWoodside Energy Group LimitedQuiet / lagging+0.9%21.2% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CVECenovus Energy IncQuiet / lagging+1.4%21.2% of 33 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

4/4 events completed
30 minutes-1.18%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +-0.21% · MAE -2.38%
60 minutes-1.26%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +-0.21% · MAE -2.38%
Session close+0.33%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +1.39% · MAE 0.01%
Next-session close-1.11%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +-0.21% · MAE -2.38%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

9 completed episodes across 33 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support96 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes9Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions33Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-171 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-07 → 2026-08-1218 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-30 → 2026-07-023 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-24 → 2026-06-252 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-17 → 2026-06-182 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-051 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
MNR45.5% · 6 episodes
SU30.3% · 2 episodes
TTE27.3% · 2 episodes
CVE21.2% · 2 episodes
PBR21.2% · 2 episodes
WDS21.2% · 3 episodes
BP18.2% · 1 episode
CNQ18.2% · 2 episodes
OVV18.2% · 2 episodes
PR18.2% · 2 episodes
VIST18.2% · 1 episode
VNOM18.2% · 4 episodes
PBR-A15.2% · 2 episodes
E12.1% · 1 episode
BTE9.1% · 3 episodes
PTEN9.1% · 2 episodes
VET9.1% · 2 episodes