Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 6 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Asset Management Firms

THE TRADER READPGY dominates an otherwise mixed group path

4 of 8 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 3.2 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 24%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth5 up · 3 down-0.5% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment24%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 14/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferencePGY registered the first material downside path

    -5.75% session path at the threshold · PGY

  2. 5-minute inferenceUPST registered a material downside path

    -1.19% session path at the threshold · UPST

  3. 5-minute inferenceEVLV registered a material downside path

    -0.50% session path at the threshold · EVLV

  4. 5-minute inferenceCHYM registered a material upside path

    +1.11% session path at the threshold · CHYM

2 earlier filing context receipts

SUN, MAR 1DAVE filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

MON, MAY 4FTRE filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 3.2 effective names. PGY represents 51.0% of absolute path energy; 4 of 8 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionConcentrated51.0% from the largest path
Effective names3.2 / 8Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth4/8 aligneddownside relative path · 3 counter-moving
Largest moverPGY 51.0%68.3% from the top two paths
PGY51.0%Dominant mover · path -5.75% · basket -0.72pp
UPST17.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.96% · basket -0.24pp
DAVE10.8%Aligned contributor · path -1.22% · basket -0.15pp
EVLV9.8%Aligned contributor · path -1.10% · basket -0.14pp
CHYM5.3%Counter-move · path +0.59% · basket +0.07pp
GME2.7%Counter-move · path +0.31% · basket +0.04pp
FTRE2.6%Counter-move · path +0.29% · basket +0.04pp
OWL0.4%Flat / inactive path · path +0.05% · basket +0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. PGY moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -5.75%
  2. UPST registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.19%
  3. EVLV registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.50%
  4. CHYM registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.11%
  5. FTRE registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.69%
  6. GME registered a material higher path170m after the first price move · path +0.47%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 11 · 09:30 ETMove visible 15:35 ETSep 11 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.53%Strongest relative path CHYMWeakest relative path PGY

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

8/8 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across CHYM, EVLV, FTRE, OWL, PGY, UPST.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The decrease of $0.9 million, or 12%, was primarily attributable to lower prevailing interest rates during 2025, as well as the elimination of interest expense associated with the convertible note held by FTX Ventures Ltd., which was repurchased in January 2024.”

DAVE 10-K · 2026-03-02
demand / volume

“As disclosed in Note 5 to our financial statements, RPO at March 31, 2026 was $299.0 million, an increase of approximately 2% from December 31, 2025, driven by continued market demand.”

EVLV 10-Q · 2026-05-12
restructuring affecting expense

“General and Administrative Expenses Year Ended December 31, 2025 2024 $ Change % Change Personnel related (including stock-based compensation) $ 25,408 $ 23,749 $ 1,659 7 % Professional fees 9,879 8,266 1,613 20 % Insurance costs 2,985 3,145 (160) (5) % Non-recurring professional fees and other expenses 16,586 21,442 (4,856) (23) % $ 54,858 $ 56,602 $ (1,744) (3) % 57 Table of Contents The increase in personnel related expenses is due to a $0.9 million increase in payroll costs, which resulted primarily from an increase in short term incentive compensation partially offset by a decrease in severance expense, and a $0.7 million increase in stock-based compensation, mainly driven by the impact of forfeited stock-based awards during the year ended December 31, 2024 followin g the termination of certain executives .”

EVLV 10-K · 2026-03-10
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

AFRMNot confirming

UPST · text peer

OPFINot confirming

UPST · text peer

TBBKNot confirming

PGY · text peer

SOFINot confirming

UPST · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
EVLVGMEDAVEOWLPGYCHYMFTREUPST

5/8 active5 rising · 3 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
EVLVEvolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-0.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
GMEGameStop Corp.
Elevated · 61/100
+3.8%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
DAVEDave Inc.
Elevated · 33/100
-1.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 37.5% of observed group sessions
OWLBlue Owl Capital Inc.
Elevated · 29/100
+1.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 25% of observed group sessions
PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.
Elevated · 28/100
-1.6%
Dominant path moverActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
CHYMChime Financial, Inc.
Quiet · 27/100
+1.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
FTREFortrea Holdings Inc.
Quiet · 24/100
+0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.
Quiet · 19/100
+1.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
EVLVEvolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.Most unusual-0.5%0% of 8 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
GMEGameStop Corp.Participating+3.8%12.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
DAVEDave Inc.Participating-1.9%37.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
OWLBlue Owl Capital Inc.Participating+1.3%25% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.Participating-1.6%12.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
CHYMChime Financial, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.1%12.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FTREFortrea Holdings Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.9%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.9%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 8 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support66 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions8Completed session observations, not trades
2026-06-24 → 2026-06-263 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-17 → 2026-06-182 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
2026-05-151 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-04-30 → 2026-05-012 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
DAVE37.5% · 2 episodes
OWL25% · 1 episode
CHYM12.5% · 1 episode
GME12.5% · 1 episode
PGY12.5% · 1 episode
EVLV0% · 0 episodes
FTRE0% · 0 episodes
UPST0% · 0 episodes