Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 31 · 18:02 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

0 of 12 measured session-normalized paths align to the mixed across 6.4 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 15 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 3%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth6 up · 6 down+0.0% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment3%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 87/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 15:50–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceHWC registered the first material upside path

    +1.14% session path at the threshold · HWC

  2. 5-minute inferenceTRMK registered a material downside path

    -1.05% session path at the threshold · TRMK

  3. 5-minute inferenceRNST registered a material upside path

    +0.37% session path at the threshold · RNST

  4. 5-minute inferenceFBNC registered a material downside path

    -0.62% session path at the threshold · FBNC

2 earlier filing context receipts

MON, MAY 4FFIN filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, AUG 6BBT filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 6.4 effective names. HWC represents 26.6% of absolute path energy; 0 of 12 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionBroad26.6% from the largest path
Effective names6.4 / 1212 of 15 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverHWC 26.6%46.2% from the top two paths
HWC26.6%Dominant mover · path +1.20% · basket +0.10pp
TRMK19.6%Independent direction · path -0.89% · basket -0.07pp
RNST14.2%Independent direction · path +0.64% · basket +0.05pp
FFIN9.7%Independent direction · path +0.44% · basket +0.04pp
FBNC9.6%Independent direction · path -0.43% · basket -0.04pp
BBT5.3%Independent direction · path -0.24% · basket -0.02pp
INDB5.0%Independent direction · path +0.22% · basket +0.02pp
BOH4.7%Independent direction · path -0.21% · basket -0.02pp
FBK2.0%Flat / inactive path · path -0.09% · basket -0.01pp
SSB1.6%Flat / inactive path · path +0.07% · basket +0.01pp
FULT1.4%Flat / inactive path · path +0.06% · basket +0.01pp
PFS0.5%Flat / inactive path · path +0.02% · basket +0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. HWC moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +1.14%
  2. TRMK registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.05%
  3. RNST registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.37%
  4. FBNC registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.62%
  5. BOH registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.40%
  6. FFIN registered a material higher path5m after the first price move · path +0.44%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 10 · 15:50 ET15:50 ETSep 11 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.04%Strongest relative path HWCWeakest relative path TRMK

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

15/15 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BOH, FFIN, PFS, SSB, TRMK, UBSI, UCB.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase in tax equivalent net interest income for the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter in 2025 was largely attributable to the increases in average loans, the increase in average balance and the rate of return on taxable and tax-exempt investment securities, and a $1.26 million reversal of interest expense.”

FFIN 10-Q · 2026-05-05
demand / volume

“A deterioration in economic conditions in the United States and our markets could result in an increase in loan delinquencies and non-performing assets, decreases in loan collateral values and a decrease in demand for our products and services, all of which, in turn, would adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.”

FFIN 10-K · 2026-02-25
credit / rates

“Derivative financial instruments are also subject to credit and counterparty risk, which is defined as the risk of financial loss if a borrower or counterparty is either unable or unwilling to repay borrowings or settle transactions in accordance with the underlying contractual terms.”

BOH 10-K · 2026-02-24
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SFBSNot confirming

HWC · text peer

HAFCNot confirming

RNST · text peer

HOMBNot confirming

HWC · text peer

RBCAANot confirming

RNST · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
FFINTRMKHWCRNSTFBKUBSIBBTFBNCINDBFULTUCBBOHSSBPFSWSFS

15/15 active6 rising · 9 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 27.3% of observed group sessions
TRMKTrustmark Corporation
Elevated · 97/100
-1.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 9.1% of observed group sessions
HWCHancock Whitney Corporation
Elevated · 86/100
+1.2%
Dominant path moverActive in 63.6% of observed group sessions
RNSTRenasant Corporation
Elevated · 79/100
+0.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
FBKFB Financial Corporation
Elevated · 77/100
-0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 27.3% of observed group sessions
UBSIUnited Bankshares, Inc.
Elevated · 75/100
-0.3%
Flow confirmerActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BBTBeacon Financial Corporation
Elevated · 66/100
-0.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 9.1% of observed group sessions
FBNCFirst Bancorp
Elevated · 60/100
-0.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 27.3% of observed group sessions
INDBIndependent Bank Corp.
Elevated · 58/100
-0.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 27.3% of observed group sessions
FULTFulton Financial Corporation
Elevated · 48/100
+0.1%
Flow divergenceActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.
Elevated · 47/100
+0.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
BOHBank of Hawaii Corporation
Elevated · 46/100
-0.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 9.1% of observed group sessions
SSBSouthState Bank Corporation
Elevated · 45/100
+0.1%
Flow confirmerActive in 18.2% of observed group sessions
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.
Elevated · 42/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 9.1% of observed group sessions
WSFSWSFS Financial Corporation
Elevated · 39/100
-0.2%
Flow confirmerActive in 9.1% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc.Most unusual+0.3%27.3% of 11 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
TRMKTrustmark CorporationParticipating-1.0%9.1% of 11 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HWCHancock Whitney CorporationParticipating+1.2%63.6% of 11 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
RNSTRenasant CorporationParticipating+0.5%18.2% of 11 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FBKFB Financial CorporationParticipating-0.3%27.3% of 11 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
UBSIUnited Bankshares, Inc.Participating-0.3%0% of 11 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
BBTBeacon Financial CorporationParticipating-0.0%9.1% of 11 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FBNCFirst BancorpParticipating-0.5%27.3% of 11 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
INDBIndependent Bank Corp.Participating-0.0%27.3% of 11 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FULTFulton Financial CorporationParticipating+0.1%18.2% of 11 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.Participating+0.5%18.2% of 11 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BOHBank of Hawaii CorporationParticipating-0.0%9.1% of 11 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SSBSouthState Bank CorporationParticipating+0.1%18.2% of 11 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.Participating-0.1%9.1% of 11 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
WSFSWSFS Financial CorporationParticipating-0.2%9.1% of 11 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 11 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support14 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions11Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-15 → 2026-07-2910 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-101 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
HWC63.6% · 2 episodes
FBK27.3% · 1 episode
FBNC27.3% · 1 episode
FFIN27.3% · 1 episode
INDB27.3% · 1 episode
FULT18.2% · 1 episode
RNST18.2% · 1 episode
SSB18.2% · 1 episode
UCB18.2% · 1 episode
BBT9.1% · 1 episode
BOH9.1% · 1 episode
PFS9.1% · 1 episode
TRMK9.1% · 1 episode
WSFS9.1% · 1 episode
UBSI0% · 0 episodes