Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Consumer Staples

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

5 of 6 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 5.7 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 6 of 7 cohort members. SJM is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 2%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth4 up · 2 down+1.1% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment2%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 13/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

6 timed events · 11:10–15:55 ET
TIMING READThe first measured price move in the common-bar window preceded the nearest verified headline by 340 minutes. Current timestamp evidence therefore does not support that headline as the initial catalyst.
  2. 5-minute inferenceKDP registered the first material downside path

    -2.54% session path at the threshold · KDP

  3. 5-minute inferenceSTZ registered a material upside path

    +0.80% session path at the threshold · STZ

  4. 5-minute inferenceHRL registered a material upside path

    +0.94% session path at the threshold · HRL

  5. 5-minute inferenceBF-B registered a material upside path

    +0.80% session path at the threshold · BF-B

2 earlier filing context receipts

THU, DEC 4HRL filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting revenue · date precision only

TUE, SEP 1BF-A filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting revenue · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 5.7 effective names. KDP represents 23.8% of absolute path energy; 5 of 6 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad23.8% from the largest path
Effective names5.7 / 66 of 7 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth5/6 alignedupside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverKDP 23.8%41.7% from the top two paths
KDP23.8%Counter-move · path -1.65% · basket -0.28pp
STZ17.9%Aligned contributor · path +1.24% · basket +0.21pp
HRL16.1%Aligned contributor · path +1.12% · basket +0.19pp
BF-B16.0%Aligned contributor · path +1.11% · basket +0.18pp
SAM15.2%Aligned contributor · path +1.06% · basket +0.18pp
TAP11.0%Aligned contributor · path +0.76% · basket +0.13pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. KDP moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -2.54%
  2. STZ registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.80%
  3. HRL registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.94%
  4. BF-B registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.80%
  5. SAM registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.83%
  6. TAP registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.50%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 30 · 11:10 ETMove visible 14:20 ETSep 30 · 15:55 ET
Group median +1.08%Strongest relative path STZWeakest relative path KDP

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

7/7 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BF-B, HRL, KDP, STZ, TAP.

demand / volume affecting revenue

“The $95 million decrease in fiscal 2024 was due to a better alignment of product levels with customer demand as well as less turkey and associated feed supplies. – In fiscal 2025, accounts receivable decreased $33 million due to the timing of sales and estimated impact from the chicken product recall.”

HRL 10-K · 2025-12-05
restructuring affecting expense

“Adjusted segment profit in the International segment was comparable to the prior year. ◦ The decrease in Retail segment profit was due to lower sales and higher logistics expenses, which were partially offset by lower SG&A. ◦ The increase in Foodservice segment profit was driven primarily by higher sales and improved margins, which were partially offset by higher logistics expenses and higher SG&A. ◦ The decrease in International segment profit was significantly impacted by the non-cash impairment of a minority investment in Indonesia.”

HRL 10-Q · 2026-08-27
restructuring

“Earnings before income taxes decreased 56 percent for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, primarily due to a $56 million loss related to the Brazil divestiture, a $48 million non-cash impairment charge, and a litigation settlement of $38 million.”

HRL 10-Q · 2026-08-27
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SJMMoving with group

KDP · text peer

TLRYNot confirming

SAM · text peer

FIZZNot confirming

KDP · text peer

MNSTNot confirming

SAM · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
HRLKDPSTZTAPSAMBF-BBF-A

5/7 active4 rising · 2 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
HRLHormel Foods Corporation
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.5%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Elevated · 90/100
-2.2%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 100% of observed group sessions
STZConstellation Brands, Inc.
Elevated · 58/100
+0.3%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TAPMolson Coors Beverage Company
Elevated · 51/100
+1.3%
Aligned price + flowActive in 100% of observed group sessions
SAMThe Boston Beer Company, Inc.
Elevated · 50/100
+0.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BF-BBrown-Forman Corporation
Quiet · 47/100
-0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 100% of observed group sessions
BF-ABrown-Forman Corporation
Quiet · 31/100
—
Watch / laggardActive in 100% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
HRLHormel Foods CorporationMost unusual+0.5%0% of 1 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.Participating-2.2%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
STZConstellation Brands, Inc.Participating+0.3%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
TAPMolson Coors Beverage CompanyParticipating+1.3%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
SAMThe Boston Beer Company, Inc.Participating+0.6%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BF-BBrown-Forman CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.3%100% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BF-ABrown-Forman CorporationQuiet / lagging—100% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

1/1 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 1 completed episode across 1 active session; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support13 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions1Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-061 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
BF-A100% · 1 episode
BF-B100% · 1 episode
KDP100% · 1 episode
TAP100% · 1 episode
HRL0% · 0 episodes
SAM0% · 0 episodes
STZ0% · 0 episodes