Building · established relationshipLive session · 11:05 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 21 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 12%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth2 up · 19 downRelative median unavailable

Capital-flow alignment12%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow

Activity nowNormalActivity score 47/100 · lift 1.0×

Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook

EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events

TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

THU, JUL 23HTH filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, AUG 6BBT filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations

Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast

WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

20/21 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across FFBC, FFIN, FRME, HOMB, HTH, PRK, SSB, UBSI, UCB, UMBF, WSBC.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The loss before income taxes was primarily due to a decrease in noninterest income, partially offset by decreases in noninterest expense and net interest expense.”
HTH 10-Q · 2026-07-24

credit / rates

“The increase in short-term borrowings at June 30, 2026, compared with December 31, 2025, primarily reflected increases in federal funds purchased by the banking segment, short-term bank loans and securities sold under agreements to repurchase by the broker-dealer segment, partially offset by a decrease in commercial paper by the broker-dealer segment.”
HTH 10-Q · 2026-07-24

demand / volume

“Throughout 2024, we experienced net interest margin compression reflecting deposit repricing activity and demand deposit migration into interest-bearing accounts.”
HTH 10-K · 2026-02-13

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

ABCBMoving with group

HWC · text peer

BFCRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

WAFD · text peer

SFBSNot confirming

HWC · text peer

RBCAARelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

RNST · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately

HTHUBSIBUSEFULTTOWNFFBCHWCUMBFCBSHFFINUCBRNSTWAFDBBTFRMEHOMBINDBWSBCSSBNBTBPRK

11/21 active2 rising · 19 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now

HTHHilltop Holdings Inc.

Most unusual · 100/100

-0.7%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions

UBSIUnited Bankshares, Inc.

Elevated · 61/100

-0.4%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 20% of observed group sessions

BUSEFirst Busey Corporation

Elevated · 55/100

-0.3%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 2.9% of observed group sessions

FULTFulton Financial Corporation

Elevated · 37/100

-0.7%

Flow divergenceActive in 8.6% of observed group sessions

TOWNTowneBank

Elevated · 32/100

-0.8%

Flow divergenceActive in 5.7% of observed group sessions

FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.

Elevated · 30/100

-0.4%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions

HWCHancock Whitney Corporation

Elevated · 26/100

+0.3%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 22.9% of observed group sessions

UMBFUMB Financial Corporation

Elevated · 25/100

+0.3%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc.

Elevated · 24/100

-0.1%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc.

Elevated · 23/100

-0.1%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 17.1% of observed group sessions

UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.

Elevated · 22/100

-0.5%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 8.6% of observed group sessions

RNSTRenasant Corporation

Quiet · 20/100

-1.5%

Watch / laggardActive in 20% of observed group sessions

WAFDWaFd, Inc.

Quiet · 20/100

-0.8%

Watch / laggardActive in 17.1% of observed group sessions

BBTBeacon Financial Corporation

Quiet · 15/100

-0.3%

Watch / laggardActive in 17.1% of observed group sessions

FRMEFirst Merchants Corporation

Quiet · 14/100

-0.4%

Watch / laggardActive in 17.1% of observed group sessions

HOMBHome BancShares, Inc.

Quiet · 14/100

-0.2%

Watch / laggardActive in 11.4% of observed group sessions

INDBIndependent Bank Corp.

Quiet · 11/100

-0.3%

Watch / laggardActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions

WSBCWesBanco, Inc.

Quiet · 11/100

-0.1%

Watch / laggardActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions

SSBSouthState Bank Corporation

Quiet · 11/100

-0.4%

Watch / laggardActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions

NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc.

Quiet · 4/100

-0.4%

Watch / laggardActive in 20% of observed group sessions

PRKPark National Corporation

Quiet · 4/100

-0.8%

Watch / laggardActive in 11.4% of observed group sessions

View exact member values

TICKER	Company	Role now	Today	Observed history	Trader interpretation
HTH	Hilltop Holdings Inc.	Most unusual	-0.7%	14.3% of 35 sessions	Most unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
UBSI	United Bankshares, Inc.	Participating	-0.4%	20% of 35 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BUSE	First Busey Corporation	Participating	-0.3%	2.9% of 35 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FULT	Fulton Financial Corporation	Participating	-0.7%	8.6% of 35 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
TOWN	TowneBank	Participating	-0.8%	5.7% of 35 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
FFBC	First Financial Bancorp.	Participating	-0.4%	14.3% of 35 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HWC	Hancock Whitney Corporation	Participating	+0.3%	22.9% of 35 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
UMBF	UMB Financial Corporation	Participating	+0.3%	0% of 35 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CBSH	Commerce Bancshares, Inc.	Participating	-0.1%	0% of 35 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FFIN	First Financial Bankshares, Inc.	Participating	-0.1%	17.1% of 35 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
UCB	United Community Banks, Inc.	Participating	-0.5%	8.6% of 35 sessions	Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
RNST	Renasant Corporation	Quiet / lagging	-1.5%	20% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WAFD	WaFd, Inc.	Quiet / lagging	-0.8%	17.1% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BBT	Beacon Financial Corporation	Quiet / lagging	-0.3%	17.1% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FRME	First Merchants Corporation	Quiet / lagging	-0.4%	17.1% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
HOMB	Home BancShares, Inc.	Quiet / lagging	-0.2%	11.4% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
INDB	Independent Bank Corp.	Quiet / lagging	-0.3%	14.3% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WSBC	WesBanco, Inc.	Quiet / lagging	-0.1%	14.3% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SSB	SouthState Bank Corporation	Quiet / lagging	-0.4%	14.3% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NBTB	NBT Bancorp Inc.	Quiet / lagging	-0.4%	20% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PRK	Park National Corporation	Quiet / lagging	-0.8%	11.4% of 35 sessions	Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome

POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

1/1 events completed

30 minutes+0.10%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.40% · MAE -0.21%

60 minutes+0.24%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.40% · MAE -0.21%

Next-session close+0.26%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.40% · MAE -0.21%

Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 35 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support41 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed

Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity

Active sessions35Completed session observations, not trades

2026-07-07 → 2026-08-0724 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session

2026-06-24 → 2026-07-026 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session

2026-06-15 → 2026-06-173 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session

2026-06-01 → 2026-06-022 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode

MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS

HWC22.9% · 2 episodes

NBTB20% · 1 episode

RNST20% · 3 episodes

UBSI20% · 4 episodes

BBT17.1% · 2 episodes

FFIN17.1% · 3 episodes

FRME17.1% · 1 episode

WAFD17.1% · 2 episodes

FFBC14.3% · 2 episodes

HTH14.3% · 1 episode

INDB14.3% · 2 episodes

SSB14.3% · 2 episodes

WSBC14.3% · 2 episodes

HOMB11.4% · 3 episodes

PRK11.4% · 1 episode

FULT8.6% · 3 episodes

UCB8.6% · 2 episodes

TOWN5.7% · 1 episode

BUSE2.9% · 1 episode

CBSH0% · 0 episodes

UMBF0% · 0 episodes