Themes / Group
Building · newly observed relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 10 · 11:10 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Macro-Sensitive Cyclicals

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 22 measured members. Capital-flow confirmation is unavailable.

Price breadth2 up · 19 downRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignmentUnavailablePrice breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowBuilding_pressureActivity score 35/100
Evidence depth0 support daysLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 17AAL filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

SUN, MAY 3AGNC filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

18/22 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AAL, AGNC, BFH, COF, DX, LUV, NCLH, NLY, RCL, SYF, TDG.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“March 31, 2025 Due to Change in Average Total Increase / (Decrease) Borrowing / Swap Balance Borrowing / Swap Rate Investment securities repurchase agreement and other debt interest expense $ 44 $ 172 $ (128) TBA dollar roll income - implied interest expense 8 32 (24) Interest rate swap periodic income/cost 111 (182) 293 Total change in economic interest expense $ 163 $ 22 $ 141 Our average mortgage borrowings, inclusive of TBAs, increased 27% for the three months ended March 31, 2026, consistent with the increase to our average investment portfolio.”

AGNC 10-Q · 2026-05-04
credit / rates

“The average interest rate on our mortgage borrowings, excluding the impact of interest rate swap periodic income, decreased 72 and 71 basis points for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, respectively, due to a decline in short-term interest rates.”

AGNC 10-Q · 2026-07-31
demand / volume affecting revenue

“Our passenger revenue in 2025 was impacted by the American Eagle flight 5342 accident and softness in domestic demand for air travel in the first half of the year, offset by strength in international travel, particularly in the Atlantic and Pacific regions, and recovery in domestic travel in the second half of the year despite the negative revenue impact from the temporary shutdown of the U.S.”

AAL 10-K · 2026-02-18
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming
ALK → SLVInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.21
ALK → HYGInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.20

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

No high-confidence filing-linked outsiders are available for this group yet.

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
VIKAALLUVUALCCLDALBFHNLYDXAGNCSLMSYFOMFALKTDGCPALTMNCLHALLYRCLCOFRYAAY

14/22 active2 rising · 20 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
VIKViking Holdings Ltd
Elevated · 100/100
-1.3%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.
Elevated · 80/100
-0.6%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.
Elevated · 77/100
-0.0%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 64/100
-0.6%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
CCLCarnival Corporation Ltd.
Elevated · 64/100
-1.1%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.
Elevated · 63/100
-0.7%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 60/100
-0.3%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.
Elevated · 55/100
-2.7%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
DXDynex Capital, Inc.
Elevated · 52/100
-2.2%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.
Most unusual · 52/100
-3.0%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
SLMSLM Corporation
Elevated · 51/100
-1.9%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
SYFSynchrony Financial
Elevated · 44/100
-2.5%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
OMFOneMain Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 41/100
-0.9%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.
Elevated · 40/100
-0.6%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated
Elevated · 40/100
+0.1%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
CPACopa Holdings, S.A.
Elevated · 38/100
-1.2%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.
Elevated · 37/100
-2.7%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Elevated · 37/100
-1.9%
Active; unclassifiedHistorical role unavailable
ALLYAlly Financial Inc.
Quiet · 37/100
+0.8%
Watch / laggardHistorical role unavailable
RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Quiet · 30/100
-0.2%
Watch / laggardHistorical role unavailable
COFCapital One Financial Corporation
Quiet · 27/100
-1.8%
Watch / laggardHistorical role unavailable
RYAAYRyanair Holdings plc
Quiet · 23/100
-2.2%
Watch / laggardHistorical role unavailable
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
VIKViking Holdings LtdParticipating-1.3%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.Participating-0.6%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.Participating-0.0%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.Participating-0.6%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CCLCarnival Corporation Ltd.Participating-1.1%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.Participating-0.7%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BFHBread Financial Holdings, Inc.Participating-0.3%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.Participating-2.7%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
DXDynex Capital, Inc.Participating-2.2%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.Most unusual-3.0%—Most unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
SLMSLM CorporationParticipating-1.9%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SYFSynchrony FinancialParticipating-2.5%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
OMFOneMain Holdings, Inc.Participating-0.9%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.Participating-0.6%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TDGTransDigm Group IncorporatedParticipating+0.1%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CPACopa Holdings, S.A.Participating-1.2%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.Participating-2.7%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.Participating-1.9%—Price participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ALLYAlly Financial Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.8%—Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.Quiet / lagging-0.2%—Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
COFCapital One Financial CorporationQuiet / lagging-1.8%—Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
RYAAYRyanair Holdings plcQuiet / lagging-2.2%—Not participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

No point-in-time live observations have completed yet.
Low structural sample

Only 0 completed episodes across 0 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support0 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes0Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions0Completed session observations, not trades

Historical cohort observations are not available yet.