Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READBroad price confirmation, weak flow alignment

6 of 6 measured members are rising. Capital-flow agreement is 10%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth6 of 6 risingRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment10%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 15/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 17BOKF filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

MON, FEB 23RF filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

6/6 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BOKF, MTB, PNFP, RF, SSB, TFC.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Under the fair value hedging model, gains or losses attributable to the change in fair value of the derivative instrument, as well as the gains and losses attributable to the change in fair value of the hedged item, are recognized in interest income or interest expense in the same income statement line item with the hedged item in the period in which the change in fair value occurs.”

RF 10-K · 2026-02-24
credit / rates

“Long-term borrowings increased by approximately $494 million from year-end 2025 reflecting the issuance of senior notes partially offset by the repayment of FHLB advances.”

RF 10-Q · 2026-08-06
restructuring

“Salaries and employee benefits increased in the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 compared to the same periods in 2025 primarily due to higher base salaries from annual merit increases, which also increased related taxes, an increase in severance and slightly higher production-based incentives.”

RF 10-Q · 2026-08-06
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming
ASB → UVXYPositive historical lead/lag · strength 0.32
ASB → SLVInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.28

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

BHRBNot confirming

SSB · text peer

NBHCNot confirming

SSB · text peer

BYNot confirming

SSB · text peer

ABCBNot confirming

SSB · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
RFBOKFPNFPTFCSSBMTB

5/6 active6 rising · 0 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
RFRegions Financial Corporation
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.5%
Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions
BOKFBOK Financial Corporation
Elevated · 90/100
+0.2%
Flow confirmerActive in 100% of observed group sessions
PNFPPinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.
Elevated · 77/100
+0.4%
Flow divergenceActive in 50% of observed group sessions
TFCTruist Financial Corporation
Elevated · 76/100
+0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
SSBSouthState Bank Corporation
Elevated · 63/100
+1.1%
Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions
MTBM&T Bank Corporation
Elevated · 59/100
+0.9%
Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
RFRegions Financial CorporationMost unusual+0.5%100% of 2 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
BOKFBOK Financial CorporationParticipating+0.2%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
PNFPPinnacle Financial Partners, Inc.Participating+0.4%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
TFCTruist Financial CorporationParticipating+0.3%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SSBSouthState Bank CorporationParticipating+1.1%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
MTBM&T Bank CorporationParticipating+0.9%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

1/1 events completed
30 minutes-0.53%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.08% · MAE -1.27%
60 minutes-0.57%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.08% · MAE -1.27%
Session close-1.18%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.08% · MAE -1.27%
Next-session close-0.38%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.08% · MAE -1.27%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

One continuous episode spans 2 active sessions; the independent episode sample remains low—context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support1 dayHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions2Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-202 active sessions66.7% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
BOKF100% · 1 episode
MTB100% · 1 episode
RF100% · 1 episode
SSB100% · 1 episode
PNFP50% · 1 episode
TFC50% · 1 episode