Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 9 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Airline Operators

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

0 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the mixed across 4.5 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 24 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 17%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth2 up · 20 down-0.0% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment17%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 7/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth9 episodes25 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

6 timed events · 11:00–15:55 ET
TIMING READA verified headline preceded the first measured price move in the common-bar window by 1090 minutes. The timing makes it a catalyst candidate, not proof of cause.
  3. 5-minute inferenceAS registered the first material downside path

    -1.14% session path at the threshold · AS

  4. 5-minute inferenceALGT registered a material upside path

    +0.43% session path at the threshold · ALGT

  5. 5-minute inferenceATI registered a material downside path

    -0.41% session path at the threshold · ATI

  6. 5-minute inferenceAER registered a material downside path

    -0.40% session path at the threshold · AER

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 17AAL filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, JUL 23SKYW filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 4.5 effective names. AS represents 39.2% of absolute path energy; 0 of 12 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionBalanced39.2% from the largest path
Effective names4.5 / 1212 of 24 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverAS 39.2%58.4% from the top two paths
AS39.2%Dominant mover · path -1.93% · basket -0.16pp
ATI19.2%Independent direction · path -0.95% · basket -0.08pp
ALGT11.1%Independent direction · path +0.55% · basket +0.05pp
AER8.0%Independent direction · path -0.40% · basket -0.03pp
DAL6.7%Independent direction · path -0.33% · basket -0.03pp
CCL6.0%Independent direction · path -0.30% · basket -0.03pp
BBVA3.0%Independent direction · path +0.15% · basket +0.01pp
AAL2.8%Independent direction · path +0.14% · basket +0.01pp
CPA2.5%Independent direction · path +0.12% · basket +0.01pp
AEG1.4%Flat / inactive path · path -0.07% · basket -0.01pp
BCS0.1%Flat / inactive path · path +0.00% · basket +0.00pp
ALK0.0%Flat / inactive path · path -0.00% · basket +0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. AS moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -1.14%
  2. ALGT registered a material higher path25m after the first price move · path +0.43%
  3. ATI registered a material lower path100m after the first price move · path -0.41%
  4. AER registered a material lower path105m after the first price move · path -0.40%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 9 · 11:00 ET15:25 ETSep 9 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.03%Strongest relative path ALGTWeakest relative path AS

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

18/36 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AAL, ALGT, ATI, ENVA, KNF, LUV, NCLH, PH, RCL.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“SkyWest Leasing profit increased $7.8 million, or 10.7%, for the three months ended June 30, 2026, compared to the three months ended June 30, 2025 , primarily due to an increase in revenue earned under our capacity purchase agreements attributed to the ownership of new E175 aircraft acquired since June 30, 2025, a decrease in incremental maintenance services provided to third parties, which offset the increase in operating revenue and contributed to the reduction in aircraft maintenance, materials and repair expense, and a decrease in interest expense due to a decrease in outstanding debt from June 30, 2025 to June 30, 2026.”

SKYW 10-Q · 2026-07-24
demand / volume affecting revenue

“Future increases in prorate revenue is based on several factors subject to change including, but not limited to, passenger demand on prorate routes, approval of new routes with our major airline partners, maintenance required to return parked aircraft for service and labor availability.”

SKYW 10-K · 2026-02-17
demand / volume

“These aircraft were previously retired in 2020 as a result of the decline in demand for air travel due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (4) Regional operating special items, net for 2024 included a $33 million non-cash write down of regional aircraft resulting from the decision to permanently park 43 Embraer ERJ145 aircraft.”

AAL 10-K · 2026-02-18
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

ULCCRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

LUV · text peer

JBLUNot confirming

LUV · text peer

INSWNot confirming

CCL · text peer

MATXNot confirming

ALK · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
SKYWGEONONDALUALLUVCPAAALATIRCLDBLTMPHNWGALKSANBCSVSECCCLAEGNCLHBBVALYGING

7/36 active3 rising · 20 falling · 1 flat

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
SKYWSkyWest, Inc.
Most unusual · 88/100
+1.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 40% of observed group sessions
GEGE Aerospace
Elevated · 84/100
-2.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ONONOn Holding AG
Elevated · 81/100
-1.6%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.
Elevated · 69/100
-0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 16% of observed group sessions
UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 65/100
-1.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 8% of observed group sessions
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.
Elevated · 60/100
+0.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 8% of observed group sessions
CPACopa Holdings, S.A.
Elevated · 57/100
+0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 12% of observed group sessions
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.
Elevated · 54/100
+0.0%
Flow divergenceActive in 12% of observed group sessions
ATIATI Inc.
Elevated · 52/100
-0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Elevated · 51/100
-1.9%
Flow divergenceActive in 20% of observed group sessions
DBDeutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft
Elevated · 49/100
-1.0%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.
Elevated · 48/100
-0.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 8% of observed group sessions
PHParker-Hannifin Corporation
Quiet · 44/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NWGNatWest Group plc
Quiet · 40/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.
Quiet · 39/100
-0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 4% of observed group sessions
SANBanco Santander, S.A.
Quiet · 34/100
-1.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BCSBarclays PLC
Quiet · 33/100
-1.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
VSECVSE Corporation
Quiet · 33/100
-4.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CCLCarnival Corporation Ltd.
Quiet · 32/100
-2.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 16% of observed group sessions
AEGAegon Ltd.
Quiet · 28/100
-0.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Quiet · 26/100
-3.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 16% of observed group sessions
BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.
Quiet · 24/100
-0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LYGLloyds Banking Group plc
Quiet · 24/100
-1.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
INGING Groep N.V.
Quiet · 16/100
-1.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
SKYWSkyWest, Inc.Most unusual+1.1%40% of 25 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
GEGE AerospaceParticipating-2.8%0% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ONONOn Holding AGParticipating-1.6%0% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.Participating-0.2%16% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.Participating-1.0%8% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.Participating+0.0%8% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CPACopa Holdings, S.A.Participating+0.1%12% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.Participating+0.0%12% of 25 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
ATIATI Inc.Participating-0.3%0% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.Participating-1.9%20% of 25 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
DBDeutsche Bank AktiengesellschaftParticipating-1.0%0% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.Participating-0.8%8% of 25 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PHParker-Hannifin CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.5%0% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NWGNatWest Group plcQuiet / lagging-0.5%0% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.9%4% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SANBanco Santander, S.A.Quiet / lagging-1.2%0% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BCSBarclays PLCQuiet / lagging-1.3%0% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
VSECVSE CorporationQuiet / lagging-4.3%0% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CCLCarnival Corporation Ltd.Quiet / lagging-2.1%16% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AEGAegon Ltd.Quiet / lagging-0.6%0% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.Quiet / lagging-3.5%16% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.Quiet / lagging-0.7%0% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
LYGLloyds Banking Group plcQuiet / lagging-1.3%0% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
INGING Groep N.V.Quiet / lagging-1.4%0% of 25 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

3/3 events completed
30 minutes+0.82%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +2.56% · MAE 0.72%
60 minutes+0.99%100% continuation · n=2Median MFE +2.56% · MAE 0.72%
Session close+0.80%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +1.88% · MAE -0.19%
Next-session close+2.09%100% continuation · n=2Median MFE +2.56% · MAE 0.72%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

9 completed episodes across 25 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support113 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes9Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions25Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-17 → 2026-08-192 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-121 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-23 → 2026-08-079 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-176 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-021 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-251 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
SKYW40% · 6 episodes
RCL20% · 3 episodes
VIK20% · 2 episodes
CCL16% · 2 episodes
DAL16% · 3 episodes
NCLH16% · 3 episodes
AAL12% · 2 episodes
CPA12% · 2 episodes
ALGT8% · 2 episodes
KNF8% · 1 episode
LTM8% · 2 episodes
LUV8% · 2 episodes
UAL8% · 2 episodes
ZGN8% · 2 episodes
AER4% · 1 episode
ALK4% · 1 episode
AS4% · 1 episode
HGV4% · 1 episode
AEG0% · 0 episodes
ATI0% · 0 episodes
BBVA0% · 0 episodes
BCS0% · 0 episodes
DB0% · 0 episodes
EMBJ0% · 0 episodes
ENVA0% · 0 episodes
GE0% · 0 episodes
HSBC0% · 0 episodes
IHG0% · 0 episodes
ING0% · 0 episodes
LYG0% · 0 episodes
NWG0% · 0 episodes
ONON0% · 0 episodes
PH0% · 0 episodes
SAN0% · 0 episodes
VSEC0% · 0 episodes
YETI0% · 0 episodes