Inactive · newly observed relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jun 16 · 13:38 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Airline Stocks

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

7 of 11 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 6.2 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 11 of 14 cohort members. LUV is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow confirmation is unavailable. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth11 up · 1 down+0.2% median path versus SPY

Capital-flow alignmentUnavailablePrice breadth is not yet confirmed by flow

Activity nowCalmActivity score 11/100 · lift 0.8×

Evidence depth1 support daysLow sample—context, not a validated playbook

EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 15:15–15:55 ET

TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.

15:45 ET
5-minute inferenceROAD registered the first material upside path
+0.94% session path at the threshold · ROAD
15:45 ET
5-minute inferenceALGT registered a material upside path
+0.37% session path at the threshold · ALGT
15:45 ET
5-minute inferenceAAL registered a material downside path
-0.43% session path at the threshold · AAL
15:45 ET
5-minute inferenceMETA registered a material downside path
-0.35% session path at the threshold · META

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, NOV 5ALGT filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, FEB 17AAL filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 6.2 effective names. ROAD represents 30.2% of absolute path energy; 7 of 11 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBalanced30.2% from the largest path

Effective names6.2 / 1111 of 14 cohort members had common bars

Direction breadth7/11 alignedupside relative path · 3 counter-moving

Largest moverROAD 30.2%47.9% from the top two paths

ROAD30.2%Dominant mover · path +1.35% · basket +0.12pp

ALGT17.7%Aligned contributor · path +0.79% · basket +0.07pp

AAL12.9%Counter-move · path -0.57% · basket -0.05pp

F8.1%Aligned contributor · path +0.36% · basket +0.03pp

DAL6.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.29% · basket +0.03pp

MFC5.6%Aligned contributor · path +0.25% · basket +0.02pp

META5.3%Counter-move · path -0.24% · basket -0.02pp

ALK4.8%Counter-move · path -0.21% · basket -0.02pp

CDRE4.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.20% · basket +0.02pp

JBLU2.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.11% · basket +0.01pp

SKYW1.9%Flat / inactive path · path -0.09% · basket -0.01pp

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations

HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred

15:45 ET
ROAD moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +0.94%
15:45 ET
ALGT registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.37%
15:45 ET
AAL registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.43%
15:45 ET
META registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.35%
15:55 ET
F registered a material higher path10m after the first price move · path +0.36%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted

Sep 11 · 15:15 ET15:50 ETSep 11 · 15:55 ET

Group median +0.20%Strongest relative path ROADWeakest relative path AAL

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast

WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

12/14 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AAL, ALGT, JBLU, META, ROAD, ULCC.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Interest expense, net decreased $218 million, or 11.2%, in 2025 compared to 2024 primarily due to lower interest rates on our variable-rate debt instruments and lower outstanding debt in 2025, as we continue our efforts to strengthen the balance sheet.”
AAL 10-K · 2026-02-18

demand / volume affecting revenue

“Prior Year (in millions) Total Operating Revenue Passenger Revenue RPMs ASMs Yield RASM Domestic $ 2,931 6% 1% 3% 4% 4% Latin America 217 (13)% (19)% (17)% 8% 8% Pacific 152 2% 12% 9% (9)% (9)% Total $ 3,300 4% —% 2% 4% 3% 20 Passenger revenue Passenger revenue increased $112 million, or 4%, primarily driven by higher yield from premium cabin demand and strong managed corporate travel.”
ALK 10-Q · 2026-05-07

demand / volume

“These increases were partially offset by softer demand in certain leisure markets, including Puerto Vallarta and Hawai'i, during spring break and peak summer travel in 2026.”
ALK 10-Q · 2026-08-04

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

LUVMoving with group

JBLU · text peer

HTZNot confirming

AAL · text peer

CVLGNot confirming

AAL · text peer

VTOLNot confirming

SKYW · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately

ALKAALSKYWROADDALFUALMFCALGTULCCMETACDREJBLUSNCY

5/14 active12 rising · 1 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now

ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.

Most unusual · 100/100

+2.6%

Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions

AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.

Elevated · 87/100

+1.1%

Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions

SKYWSkyWest, Inc.

Elevated · 83/100

+0.4%

Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions

ROADConstruction Partners, Inc.

Elevated · 68/100

+3.9%

Dominant path moverActive in 0% of observed group sessions

DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.

Elevated · 66/100

+2.2%

Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions

FFord Motor Company

Quiet · 52/100

+0.5%