Themes / Group
Inactive · newly observed relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jun 16 · 13:38 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Airline Stocks

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

7 of 11 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 7.6 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 11 of 14 cohort members. LUV is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow confirmation is unavailable.

Price breadth9 up · 4 down+0.4% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignmentUnavailablePrice breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 11/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth1 support daysLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

5 timed events · 11:05–15:55 ET
TIMING READA verified headline preceded the first measured price move in the common-bar window by 1170 minutes. The timing makes it a catalyst candidate, not proof of cause.
  2. 5-minute inferenceMETA registered the first material upside path

    +1.62% session path at the threshold · META

  3. 5-minute inferenceALGT registered a material upside path

    +1.37% session path at the threshold · ALGT

  4. 5-minute inferenceDAL registered a material upside path

    +1.20% session path at the threshold · DAL

  5. 5-minute inferenceSKYW registered a material downside path

    -0.95% session path at the threshold · SKYW

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, NOV 5ALGT filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, FEB 17AAL filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.6 effective names. META represents 22.1% of absolute path energy; 7 of 11 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad22.1% from the largest path
Effective names7.6 / 1111 of 14 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth7/11 alignedupside relative path · 3 counter-moving
Largest moverMETA 22.1%36.1% from the top two paths
META22.1%Aligned contributor · path +2.45% · basket +0.22pp
ALGT14.0%Aligned contributor · path +1.54% · basket +0.14pp
DAL13.4%Aligned contributor · path +1.48% · basket +0.14pp
SKYW12.6%Counter-move · path -1.40% · basket -0.13pp
JBLU11.4%Aligned contributor · path +1.26% · basket +0.11pp
ROAD9.3%Counter-move · path -1.03% · basket -0.09pp
AAL7.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.81% · basket +0.07pp
MFC3.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.39% · basket +0.04pp
CDRE3.2%Counter-move · path -0.35% · basket -0.03pp
ALK2.8%Aligned contributor · path +0.31% · basket +0.03pp
F0.4%Flat / inactive path · path +0.04% · basket +0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. META moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +1.62%
  2. ALGT registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.37%
  3. DAL registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.20%
  4. SKYW registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.95%
  5. JBLU registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.00%
  6. ROAD registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.86%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 29 · 11:05 ETMove visible 15:35 ETSep 29 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.39%Strongest relative path METAWeakest relative path SKYW

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

12/14 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AAL, ALGT, JBLU, META, ROAD, ULCC.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Interest expense, net decreased $218 million, or 11.2%, in 2025 compared to 2024 primarily due to lower interest rates on our variable-rate debt instruments and lower outstanding debt in 2025, as we continue our efforts to strengthen the balance sheet.”

AAL 10-K · 2026-02-18
demand / volume affecting revenue

“Prior Year (in millions) Total Operating Revenue Passenger Revenue RPMs ASMs Yield RASM Domestic $ 2,931 6% 1% 3% 4% 4% Latin America 217 (13)% (19)% (17)% 8% 8% Pacific 152 2% 12% 9% (9)% (9)% Total $ 3,300 4% —% 2% 4% 3% 20 Passenger revenue Passenger revenue increased $112 million, or 4%, primarily driven by higher yield from premium cabin demand and strong managed corporate travel.”

ALK 10-Q · 2026-05-07
demand / volume

“These increases were partially offset by softer demand in certain leisure markets, including Puerto Vallarta and Hawai'i, during spring break and peak summer travel in 2026.”

ALK 10-Q · 2026-08-04
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

LUVMoving with group

JBLU · text peer

HTZNot confirming

AAL · text peer

CVLGNot confirming

AAL · text peer

VTOLNot confirming

SKYW · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
ALKAALSKYWROADDALFUALMFCMETACDREJBLUALGTULCCSNCY

5/14 active9 rising · 4 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.
Elevated · 87/100
+0.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SKYWSkyWest, Inc.
Elevated · 83/100
-1.9%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ROADConstruction Partners, Inc.
Elevated · 68/100
+0.8%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.
Elevated · 66/100
+1.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FFord Motor Company
Quiet · 52/100
-0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.
Quiet · 47/100
+1.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
MFCManulife Financial Corporation
Quiet · 43/100
-0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
METAMeta Platforms, Inc.
Quiet · 0/100
+3.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.
Quiet · 0/100
-2.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
JBLUJetBlue Airways Corporation
Quiet · 0/100
+1.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ALGTAllegiant Travel Company
Quiet · 0/100
+0.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.
Quiet · 0/100
+0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SNCYCompany name unavailable
Quiet · 0/100
—
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.Most unusual+0.5%0% of 0 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.Participating+0.5%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SKYWSkyWest, Inc.Participating-1.9%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ROADConstruction Partners, Inc.Participating+0.8%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.Participating+1.0%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FFord Motor CompanyQuiet / lagging-0.7%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.0%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
MFCManulife Financial CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.2%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
METAMeta Platforms, Inc.Quiet / lagging+3.3%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.Quiet / lagging-2.1%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
JBLUJetBlue Airways CorporationQuiet / lagging+1.8%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ALGTAllegiant Travel CompanyQuiet / lagging+0.6%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.5%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SNCY—Quiet / lagging—0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 0 completed episodes across 0 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support1 dayHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes0Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions0Completed session observations, not trades
2026-06-1014 names in the durable cohort
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
AAL0% · 0 episodes
ALGT0% · 0 episodes
ALK0% · 0 episodes
CDRE0% · 0 episodes
DAL0% · 0 episodes
F0% · 0 episodes
JBLU0% · 0 episodes
META0% · 0 episodes
MFC0% · 0 episodes
ROAD0% · 0 episodes
SKYW0% · 0 episodes
SNCY0% · 0 episodes
UAL0% · 0 episodes
ULCC0% · 0 episodes