Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 30 · 18:28 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Packaged Foods & Beverages

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

10 of 10 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 8.1 effective names. SJM is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 18%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth10 of 10 falling-1.6% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment18%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 12/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceMO registered the first material downside path

    -0.69% session path at the threshold · MO

  2. 5-minute inferenceCLX registered a material downside path

    -0.93% session path at the threshold · CLX

  3. 5-minute inferenceFIZZ registered a material downside path

    -0.64% session path at the threshold · FIZZ

  4. 5-minute inferencePG registered a material downside path

    -0.54% session path at the threshold · PG

2 earlier filing context receipts

MON, FEB 16HSY filing documented shared operating contextpricing · date precision only

SUN, FEB 22CL filing documented shared operating contextpricing · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 8.1 effective names. KDP represents 19.0% of absolute path energy; 10 of 10 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad19.0% from the largest path
Effective names8.1 / 10Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth10/10 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverKDP 19.0%33.0% from the top two paths
KDP19.0%Aligned contributor · path -3.10% · basket -0.31pp
HSY14.0%Aligned contributor · path -2.29% · basket -0.23pp
MO13.2%Aligned contributor · path -2.16% · basket -0.22pp
PG12.5%Aligned contributor · path -2.04% · basket -0.20pp
CL10.2%Aligned contributor · path -1.67% · basket -0.17pp
FIZZ9.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.52% · basket -0.15pp
KO8.5%Aligned contributor · path -1.39% · basket -0.14pp
CLX7.9%Aligned contributor · path -1.29% · basket -0.13pp
MNST2.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.47% · basket -0.05pp
MDT2.5%Aligned contributor · path -0.40% · basket -0.04pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. MO moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.69%
  2. CLX registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.93%
  3. FIZZ registered a material lower path20m after the first price move · path -0.64%
  4. PG registered a material lower path40m after the first price move · path -0.54%
  5. HSY registered a material lower path75m after the first price move · path -0.99%
  6. CL registered a material lower path75m after the first price move · path -0.55%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 30 · 09:30 ETMove visible 11:05 ETSep 30 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.59%Strongest relative path MDTWeakest relative path KDP

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

10/10 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across KDP, KO, MDT, MO.

pricing

“n 2025, up 2.9% from 2024, driven by net selling price increases of 3.0% and positive foreign exchange of 0.5%, partially offset by volume declines of 0.6%.”

CL 10-K · 2026-02-23
pricing affecting revenue

“Net Sales Worldwide Net sales were $20,382 in 2025, up 1.4% from 2024, driven by net selling price increases of 2.1%, partially offset by volume declines of 0.4% and negative foreign exchange of 0.3%.”

CL 10-K · 2026-02-23
demand / volume affecting revenue

“Oral, Personal and Home Care North America 2025 2024 % Change Net sales $ 4,045 $ 4,113 (1.6) % Operating profit $ 784 $ 839 (7) % % of Net sales 19.4 % 20.4 % (100) bps Net sales in North America decreased 1.6% in 2025 to $4,045, driven by volume declines of 1.4%, net selling price decreases of 0.2% and negative foreign exchange of 0.1%.”

CL 10-K · 2026-02-23
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SJMMoving with group

KDP · text peer

COKENot confirming

FIZZ · text peer

SAMNot confirming

MNST · text peer

BROSNot confirming

KDP · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
CLPGHSYKDPMOFIZZCLXMDTKOMNST

5/10 active0 rising · 10 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
CLColgate-Palmolive Company
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PGThe Procter & Gamble Company
Elevated · 81/100
-2.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
HSYThe Hershey Company
Elevated · 76/100
-2.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Elevated · 74/100
-2.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 17.6% of observed group sessions
MOAltria Group, Inc.
Elevated · 54/100
-2.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 5.9% of observed group sessions
FIZZNational Beverage Corp.
Quiet · 36/100
-1.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CLXThe Clorox Company
Quiet · 35/100
-0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 5.9% of observed group sessions
MDTMedtronic plc
Quiet · 34/100
-0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KOThe Coca-Cola Company
Quiet · 27/100
-0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 23.5% of observed group sessions
MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation
Quiet · 22/100
-0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
CLColgate-Palmolive CompanyMost unusual-1.4%0% of 17 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
PGThe Procter & Gamble CompanyParticipating-2.0%0% of 17 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HSYThe Hershey CompanyParticipating-2.4%0% of 17 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.Participating-2.2%17.6% of 17 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
MOAltria Group, Inc.Participating-2.0%5.9% of 17 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FIZZNational Beverage Corp.Quiet / lagging-1.4%0% of 17 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CLXThe Clorox CompanyQuiet / lagging-0.7%5.9% of 17 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
MDTMedtronic plcQuiet / lagging-0.9%0% of 17 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
KOThe Coca-Cola CompanyQuiet / lagging-0.9%23.5% of 17 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
MNSTMonster Beverage CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.3%0% of 17 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.01%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.09% · MAE -1.03%
60 minutes-0.10%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.09% · MAE -1.03%
Session close-0.21%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.09% · MAE -1.03%
Next-session close-0.98%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.09% · MAE -1.03%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 17 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support51 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions17Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-031 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-241 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-17 → 2026-08-192 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-15 → 2026-08-0713 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
KO23.5% · 2 episodes
KDP17.6% · 1 episode
CLX5.9% · 1 episode
MO5.9% · 1 episode
CL0% · 0 episodes
FIZZ0% · 0 episodes
HSY0% · 0 episodes
MDT0% · 0 episodes
MNST0% · 0 episodes
PG0% · 0 episodes