Themes / Cluster
Inactive · newly observed relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 30 · 18:28 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Digital Consumer Lending

THE TRADER READDAVE dominates an otherwise mixed group path

2 of 4 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 1.5 effective names. PGY, FIGR, TBBK are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 23%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth4 of 4 falling+0.2% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment23%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 0/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth1 support daysLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 15:35–13:50 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceUPST registered the first material downside path

    -0.43% session path at the threshold · UPST

  2. 5-minute inferenceAFRM registered a material upside path

    +0.37% session path at the threshold · AFRM

  3. 5-minute inferenceDAVE registered a material upside path

    +1.37% session path at the threshold · DAVE

  4. 5-minute inferenceSOFI registered a material upside path

    +0.81% session path at the threshold · SOFI

2 earlier filing context receipts

SUN, MAR 1DAVE filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 5SOFI filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 1.5 effective names. DAVE represents 80.2% of absolute path energy; 2 of 4 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionConcentrated80.2% from the largest path
Effective names1.5 / 4Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth2/4 alignedupside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverDAVE 80.2%92.5% from the top two paths
DAVE80.2%Dominant mover · path +4.06% · basket +1.01pp
UPST12.3%Counter-move · path -0.62% · basket -0.16pp
AFRM6.2%Aligned contributor · path +0.31% · basket +0.08pp
SOFI1.2%Flat / inactive path · path +0.06% · basket +0.02pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. UPST moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.43%
  2. AFRM registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.37%
  3. DAVE registered a material higher path1075m after the first price move · path +1.37%
  4. SOFI registered a material higher path1075m after the first price move · path +0.81%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 30 · 15:35 ETMove visible 09:40 ETOct 1 · 13:50 ET
Group median +0.19%Strongest relative path DAVEWeakest relative path UPST

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

4/4 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across SOFI, UPST.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Corporate borrowing-based interest expense includes interest on our revolving credit facility, as well as interest expense and the amortization of debt discount and debt issuance costs on our convertible notes. (2) The income tax expense recognized in both periods was primarily attributable to the Company’s profitability, partially offset by discrete tax benefits for stock compensation recorded in each quarter.”

SOFI 10-Q · 2026-08-06
demand / volume

“Origination volume for our Lending products increased 69% for both the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, as a result of continued strong member demand for personal loans, student loans and home loans as well as strong demand from capital markets partners.”

SOFI 10-Q · 2026-08-06
credit / rates

“The availability of funds under our warehouse facilities and revolving credit facility is subject to, among other conditions, our continued compliance with the covenants.”

SOFI 10-Q · 2026-05-07
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

4 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

PGYMoving with group

UPST · text peer

FIGRMoving with group

UPST · text peer

TBBKMoving with group

SOFI · text peer

SLMMoving with group

SOFI · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
AFRMSOFIUPSTDAVE

4/4 active0 rising · 4 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 100/100
-0.1%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.
Most unusual · 70/100
-1.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 49/100
-0.7%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
DAVEDave Inc.
Elevated · 45/100
-1.2%
Dominant path moverActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.Participating-0.1%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.Most unusual-1.3%0% of 0 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc.Participating-0.7%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
DAVEDave Inc.Participating-1.2%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 0 completed episodes across 0 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support1 dayHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes0Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions0Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-304 names in the durable cohort
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
AFRM0% · 0 episodes
DAVE0% · 0 episodes
SOFI0% · 0 episodes
UPST0% · 0 episodes