Themes / Pair
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 14 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Consumer Cyclical Construction

THE TRADER READPLOW dominates an otherwise mixed group path

2 of 2 measured session-normalized paths align to the upside across 2.0 effective names. TTC, ALSN are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital flow shows distribution with 76% agreement. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth2 of 2 rising+0.4% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment76%Distribution confirmed by signed flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 16/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

2 timed events · 11:40–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferencePLOW registered the first material upside path

    +0.46% session path at the threshold · PLOW

  2. 5-minute inferenceASTE registered a material upside path

    +0.36% session path at the threshold · ASTE

2 earlier filing context receipts

MON, FEB 23PLOW filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, FEB 24ASTE filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 2.0 effective names. PLOW represents 57.9% of absolute path energy; 2 of 2 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionConcentrated57.9% from the largest path
Effective names2.0 / 2Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth2/2 alignedupside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverPLOW 57.9%100.0% from the top two paths
PLOW57.9%Dominant mover · path +0.50% · basket +0.25pp
ASTE42.1%Dominant mover · path +0.36% · basket +0.18pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. PLOW moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +0.46%
  2. ASTE registered a material higher path165m after the first price move · path +0.36%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Aug 19 · 11:40 ETMove visible 15:55 ETAug 19 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.43%Strongest relative path PLOWWeakest relative path ASTE

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

2/2 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K relation is credit / rates affecting interest expense on interest expense across ASTE, PLOW.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The decrease in interest expense for the year ended December 31, 2025 was primarily due to lower interest on our term loan of $2.3 million and lower interest on our revolver of $2.0 million, somewhat offset by higher floor plan interest of $1.4 million.”

PLOW 10-K · 2026-02-24
capital investment / capacity affecting capex

“Net cash used in investing activities increased $94.3 million for the year ended December 31, 2025, compared to the corresponding period in 2024 due to gross proceeds on the sale leaseback transaction of $64.2 million in 2024, the acquisition of Venco Venturo for $26.3 million in 2025, as well as an increase in capital expenditures.”

PLOW 10-K · 2026-02-24
credit / rates

“The decrease in cash used was primarily due to having $5.0 million in revolver borrowings outstanding at December 31, 2025, compared to no outstanding borrowings at December 31, 2024 and $47.0 million outstanding at December 31, 2023.”

PLOW 10-K · 2026-02-24
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

TTCMoving with group

PLOW · text peer

ALSNMoving with group

PLOW · text peer

TEXNot confirming

ASTE · text peer

SKYQNot confirming

ASTE · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
PLOWASTE

2/2 active2 rising · 0 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+1.1%
Dominant path moverActive in 90% of observed group sessions
ASTEAstec Industries, Inc.
Elevated · 75/100
+0.1%
Dominant path moverActive in 90% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.Most unusual+1.1%90% of 10 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
ASTEAstec Industries, Inc.Participating+0.1%90% of 10 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 10 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support38 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions10Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-082 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-026 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-171 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-05-061 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
ASTE90% · 3 episodes
PLOW90% · 3 episodes