Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Oil & Gas Refining

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

8 of 8 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 5.1 effective names. CLMT is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 31%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth8 of 8 falling-2.1% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment31%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 63/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth5 episodes20 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

5 timed events · 15:45–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferencePARR registered the first material downside path

    -3.47% session path at the threshold · PARR

  2. 5-minute inferenceDK registered a material downside path

    -1.88% session path at the threshold · DK

  3. 5-minute inferencePBF registered a material downside path

    -5.44% session path at the threshold · PBF

  4. 5-minute inferenceCVI registered a material downside path

    -1.81% session path at the threshold · CVI

  5. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    100% breadth · Hot activity

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, JUL 28CVI filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, AUG 4PARR filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 5.1 effective names. PARR represents 28.2% of absolute path energy; 8 of 8 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad28.2% from the largest path
Effective names5.1 / 8Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth8/8 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverPARR 28.2%55.1% from the top two paths
PARR28.2%Dominant mover · path -5.91% · basket -0.74pp
PBF26.9%Dominant mover · path -5.64% · basket -0.70pp
DK14.2%Aligned contributor · path -2.97% · basket -0.37pp
CVI10.5%Aligned contributor · path -2.20% · basket -0.28pp
DINO9.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.96% · basket -0.24pp
VLO5.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.11% · basket -0.14pp
PSX3.7%Aligned contributor · path -0.77% · basket -0.10pp
MPC1.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.41% · basket -0.05pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. PARR moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -3.47%
  2. DK registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.88%
  3. PBF registered a material lower path225m after the first price move · path -5.44%
  4. CVI registered a material lower path225m after the first price move · path -1.81%
  5. DINO registered a material lower path225m after the first price move · path -2.06%
  6. VLO registered a material lower path225m after the first price move · path -0.87%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Aug 19 · 15:45 ETMove visible 10:15 ETAug 20 · 15:55 ET
Group median -2.08%Strongest relative path MPCWeakest relative path PARR

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

8/8 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across CVI, DINO, MPC, PSX, VLO.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The $402.6 million increase was primarily driven by a $548.6 million increase in our refining segment operating income and a $7.8 million decrease in Interest expense and financing costs, net, partially offset by a $127.1 million increase in income tax expense, an $11.5 million increase in debt extinguishment and commitment costs and a $6.2 million decrease in our retail segment operating income.”

PARR 10-Q · 2026-08-05
demand / volume

“We may experience a decrease in demand for refined petroleum products due to an increase in combined fleet mileage or due to refined petroleum products being replaced by renewable fuels.”

PARR 10-K · 2026-02-25
restructuring

“This change does not delay, accelerate, or avoid an impairment charge and has been applied prospectively as retrospective application was impracticable due to the inability to objectively determine the assumptions and significant estimates used in prior periods without the benefit of hindsight.”

DINO 10-K · 2026-02-27
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

CLMTMoving with group

PSX · supplier

Filing receipt
“These facilities each receive their base oil feedstocks by railcar and truck under supply agreements or spot purchases with various suppliers, the most significant of wh…”
MPLXNot confirming

MPC · partner

Filing receipt
“See Note 16 to the unaudited consolidated financial statements for further discussion of MPLX’s debt.”
UANRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

CVI · supplier

Filing receipt
“The Coffeyville Facility is the only nitrogen fertilizer facility in North America that utilizes pet coke, which is purchased from CVR Energy and third parties, in a gas…”
CHRDNot confirming

MPC · customer

Filing receipt
“For the year ended December 31, 2025, sales to Phillips 66 Company and Marathon Petroleum Supply & Trading LLC accounted for approximately 21 % and 12 %, respectively, o…”

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
PARRDKVLOMPCCVIPSXDINOPBF

8/8 active0 rising · 8 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-5.9%
Dominant path moverActive in 45% of observed group sessions
DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 96/100
-3.4%
Aligned path contributorActive in 60% of observed group sessions
VLOValero Energy Corporation
Elevated · 96/100
-1.3%
Aligned price + flowActive in 35% of observed group sessions
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation
Elevated · 93/100
-0.7%
Aligned price + flowActive in 60% of observed group sessions
CVICVR Energy, Inc.
Elevated · 83/100
-2.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 45% of observed group sessions
PSXPhillips 66
Elevated · 74/100
-0.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 70% of observed group sessions
DINOHF Sinclair Corporation
Elevated · 72/100
-2.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 60% of observed group sessions
PBFPBF Energy Inc.
Elevated · 71/100
-5.8%
Dominant path moverActive in 35% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.Most unusual-5.9%45% of 20 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.Participating-3.4%60% of 20 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
VLOValero Energy CorporationParticipating-1.3%35% of 20 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationParticipating-0.7%60% of 20 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
CVICVR Energy, Inc.Participating-2.3%45% of 20 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PSXPhillips 66Participating-0.9%70% of 20 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
DINOHF Sinclair CorporationParticipating-2.0%60% of 20 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
PBFPBF Energy Inc.Participating-5.8%35% of 20 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

3/3 events completed
30 minutes-1.96%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +-1.22% · MAE -3.43%
60 minutes-1.78%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +-1.22% · MAE -3.43%
Session close-0.23%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.30% · MAE -0.25%
Next-session close-2.46%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +-1.22% · MAE -3.43%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

5 completed episodes across 20 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support38 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes5Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions20Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-13 → 2026-08-204 active sessions10% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-21 → 2026-08-0711 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-151 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-082 active sessions42.9% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-29 → 2026-07-012 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
PSX70% · 4 episodes
DINO60% · 4 episodes
DK60% · 3 episodes
MPC60% · 5 episodes
CVI45% · 2 episodes
PARR45% · 3 episodes
PBF35% · 4 episodes
VLO35% · 4 episodes