Inactive · established relationshipLive session · 14:24 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Discount Retailers

THE TRADER READELF dominates an otherwise mixed group path

1 of 2 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 1.3 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 15%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth2 of 2 falling-0.6% session-normalized median path

Capital-flow alignment15%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow

Activity nowCalmActivity score 4/100 · lift 0.8×

Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook

EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

2 timed events · 13:45–14:10 ET

TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.

14:00 ET
5-minute inferenceELF registered the first material downside path
-0.74% session path at the threshold · ELF
09:45 ET
5-minute inferenceEL registered a material upside path
+1.11% session path at the threshold · EL

THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 1.3 effective names. ELF represents 86.0% of absolute path energy; 1 of 2 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionConcentrated86.0% from the largest path

Effective names1.3 / 2Movement diversity after concentration

Direction breadth1/2 aligneddownside relative path · 1 counter-moving

Largest moverELF 86.0%100.0% from the top two paths

ELF86.0%Dominant mover · path -1.45% · basket -0.72pp

EL14.0%Counter-move · path +0.23% · basket +0.12pp

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations

HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred

14:00 ET
ELF moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.74%
09:45 ET
EL registered a material higher path1185m after the first price move · path +1.11%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Aug 10 · 13:45 ETMove visible 14:00 ETAug 11 · 14:10 ET

Group median -0.61%Strongest relative path ELWeakest relative path ELF

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast

WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

AMZNNot confirming

ELF · customer

Filing receipt

“We have strong relationships with our retail customers such as Target, Walmart, Amazon, Sephora and other leading retailers that have enabled us to expand distribution b…”

ULTANot confirming

ELF · customer

Filing receipt

“We have strong relationships with our retail customers such as Target, Walmart, Ulta Beauty, Amazon and other leading retailers that have enabled us to expand distributi…”

TGTNot confirming

ELF · customer

Filing receipt

“We have strong relationships with our retail customers such as Target, Walmart, Amazon, Sephora and other leading retailers that have enabled us to expand distribution b…”

WMTNot confirming

ELF · customer

Filing receipt

“We have strong relationships with our retail customers such as Target, Walmart, Amazon, Sephora and other leading retailers that have enabled us to expand distribution b…”

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately

ELELF

2/2 active0 rising · 2 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now

ELEstee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T

Most unusual · 100/100

-1.4%

Counter-move / dispersionActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions

ELFe.l.f. Beauty, Inc.

Elevated · 57/100

-3.2%

Dominant path moverActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions

View exact member values

TICKER	Company	Role now	Today	Observed history	Trader interpretation
EL	Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T	Most unusual	-1.4%	66.7% of 3 sessions	Most unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
ELF	e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.	Participating	-3.2%	66.7% of 3 sessions	Price participation with accumulating signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome

POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

1/1 events completed

30 minutes+3.84%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +4.05% · MAE 1.85%

60 minutes+3.53%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +4.05% · MAE 1.85%

Next-session close+2.29%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +4.05% · MAE 1.85%

Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 3 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support7 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed

Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity

Active sessions3Completed session observations, not trades

2026-08-06 → 2026-08-072 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode

2026-07-291 active session100% composition consistency through the episode

MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS

EL66.7% · 1 episode

ELF66.7% · 1 episode