Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Asset Management

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

7 of 8 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 6.6 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 7%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth6 up · 2 down-0.6% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment7%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowNormalActivity score 52/100 · lift 1.0×
Evidence depth3 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 10:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceBAC registered the first material downside path

    -0.58% session path at the threshold · BAC

  2. 5-minute inferenceNTRS registered a material downside path

    -0.55% session path at the threshold · NTRS

  3. 5-minute inferenceJPM registered a material downside path

    -0.56% session path at the threshold · JPM

  4. 5-minute inferenceWFC registered a material downside path

    -0.61% session path at the threshold · WFC

2 earlier filing context receipts

THU, APR 30JPM filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume · date precision only

THU, JUL 30BAC filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 6.6 effective names. BAC represents 21.3% of absolute path energy; 7 of 8 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad21.3% from the largest path
Effective names6.6 / 8Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth7/8 aligneddownside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverBAC 21.3%39.7% from the top two paths
BAC21.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.01% · basket -0.13pp
NTRS18.4%Aligned contributor · path -0.87% · basket -0.11pp
JPM16.7%Aligned contributor · path -0.79% · basket -0.10pp
AMP14.4%Aligned contributor · path -0.68% · basket -0.09pp
SEIC10.7%Counter-move · path +0.51% · basket +0.06pp
WFC9.2%Aligned contributor · path -0.43% · basket -0.05pp
LPLA6.2%Aligned contributor · path -0.29% · basket -0.04pp
RJF3.1%Aligned contributor · path -0.15% · basket -0.02pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. BAC moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.58%
  2. NTRS registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.55%
  3. JPM registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.56%
  4. WFC registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.61%
  5. RJF registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.38%
  6. AMP registered a material lower path35m after the first price move · path -0.36%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 21 · 10:30 ETMove visible 10:45 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.56%Strongest relative path SEICWeakest relative path BAC

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

8/8 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AMP, BAC, LPLA, NTRS, RJF, SEIC, WFC.

demand / volume

“During the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, first mortgage loan originations for Consumer Banking increased $445 million and $1.7 billion, and first mortgage loan originations for the total Corporation increased $1.7 billion and $3.6 billion for the same periods, primarily driven by higher demand.”

BAC 10-Q · 2026-07-31
credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Interest expense on borrowings for the year ended December 31, 2025 increased by $129.2 million compared to 2024, primarily due to the issuance of $1.0 billion senior unsecured notes in May 2024, $1.25 billion senior unsecured notes in February 2025 and $1.5 billion senior unsecured notes in April 2025.”

LPLA 10-K · 2026-02-23
restructuring affecting expense

“General and administrative expense, which excludes integration and restructuring charges, decreased $37 million, or 24%, for the six months ended June 30, 2026 compared to the prior year period primarily reflecting lower real estate expenses as well as expenses to accelerate our transition to cloud-based technology in the prior year period.”

AMP 10-Q · 2026-08-04
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

PFGNot confirming

AMP · text peer

JEFNot confirming

AMP · text peer

BENNot confirming

AMP · text peer

ASBNot confirming

WFC · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
LPLAAMPBACWFCRJFSEICJPMNTRS

7/8 active6 rising · 2 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
LPLALPL Financial Holdings Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+1.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 44.4% of observed group sessions
AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.
Elevated · 99/100
+1.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 88.9% of observed group sessions
BACBank of America Corporation
Elevated · 80/100
-0.3%
Aligned price + flowActive in 55.6% of observed group sessions
WFCWells Fargo & Company
Elevated · 71/100
+0.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 55.6% of observed group sessions
RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc.
Elevated · 57/100
+1.7%
Aligned path contributorActive in 77.8% of observed group sessions
SEICSEI Investments Company
Elevated · 55/100
+1.8%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 55.6% of observed group sessions
JPMJP Morgan Chase & Co.
Elevated · 54/100
-0.1%
Aligned price + flowActive in 11.1% of observed group sessions
NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation
Quiet · 35/100
+0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 22.2% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
LPLALPL Financial Holdings Inc.Most unusual+1.9%44.4% of 9 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.Participating+1.5%88.9% of 9 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BACBank of America CorporationParticipating-0.3%55.6% of 9 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
WFCWells Fargo & CompanyParticipating+0.2%55.6% of 9 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc.Participating+1.7%77.8% of 9 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SEICSEI Investments CompanyParticipating+1.8%55.6% of 9 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
JPMJP Morgan Chase & Co.Participating-0.1%11.1% of 9 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
NTRSNorthern Trust CorporationQuiet / lagging+0.8%22.2% of 9 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

5/5 events completed
30 minutes+0.00%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.66% · MAE -0.26%
60 minutes+0.16%100% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.66% · MAE -0.26%
Session close+0.57%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.66% · MAE -0.26%
Next-session close+0.12%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.66% · MAE -0.26%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 3 completed episodes across 9 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support14 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes3Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions9Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-13 → 2026-08-205 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-08-061 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-23 → 2026-07-313 active sessions75% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
AMP88.9% · 3 episodes
RJF77.8% · 3 episodes
BAC55.6% · 2 episodes
SEIC55.6% · 3 episodes
WFC55.6% · 2 episodes
LPLA44.4% · 2 episodes
NTRS22.2% · 1 episode
JPM11.1% · 1 episode