Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 9 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Gold and Silver Miners

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

11 of 12 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 9.5 effective names. SSRM, UAMY are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 3%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth11 up · 1 down-1.2% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment3%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 0/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth5 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceARIS registered the first material downside path

    -1.01% session path at the threshold · ARIS

  2. 5-minute inferenceEXK registered a material downside path

    -2.36% session path at the threshold · EXK

  3. 5-minute inferenceMUX registered a material downside path

    -1.43% session path at the threshold · MUX

  4. 5-minute inferenceASM registered a material downside path

    -1.87% session path at the threshold · ASM

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 9.5 effective names. ARIS represents 16.3% of absolute path energy; 11 of 12 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad16.3% from the largest path
Effective names9.5 / 12Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth11/12 aligneddownside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverARIS 16.3%31.5% from the top two paths
ARIS16.3%Aligned contributor · path -2.85% · basket -0.24pp
EXK15.2%Aligned contributor · path -2.66% · basket -0.22pp
MUX12.2%Aligned contributor · path -2.13% · basket -0.18pp
ASM11.5%Aligned contributor · path -2.00% · basket -0.17pp
SBSW8.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.39% · basket -0.12pp
GAU7.6%Aligned contributor · path -1.32% · basket -0.11pp
AGI6.1%Aligned contributor · path -1.07% · basket -0.09pp
FSM6.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.04% · basket -0.09pp
HL6.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.04% · basket -0.09pp
BTG4.6%Aligned contributor · path -0.81% · basket -0.07pp
PAAS3.9%Counter-move · path +0.68% · basket +0.06pp
AG2.7%Aligned contributor · path -0.47% · basket -0.04pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. ARIS moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -1.01%
  2. EXK registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -2.36%
  3. MUX registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.43%
  4. ASM registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.87%
  5. SBSW registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.47%
  6. AGI registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.41%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 9 · 09:30 ETMove visible 09:50 ETSep 9 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.20%Strongest relative path PAASWeakest relative path ARIS

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SSRMMoving with group

MUX · text peer

UAMYMoving with group

HL · text peer

HYMCNot confirming

HL · text peer

IDRNot confirming

MUX · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
AGHLFSMAGIPAASSBSWEXKBTGGAUARISASMMUX

5/12 active11 rising · 1 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.
Elevated · 100/100
+2.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 55.6% of observed group sessions
HLHecla Mining Company
Elevated · 92/100
+1.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
FSMFortuna Mining Corp.
Elevated · 92/100
+1.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AGIAlamos Gold Inc.
Elevated · 77/100
+1.3%
Aligned price + flowActive in 11.1% of observed group sessions
PAASPan American Silver Corp.
Most unusual · 74/100
+3.7%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
SBSWSibanye Stillwater Limited
Elevated · 64/100
+1.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
EXKEndeavour Silver Corp.
Elevated · 64/100
+0.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 77.8% of observed group sessions
BTGB2Gold Corp.
Quiet · 34/100
+1.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
GAUGaliano Gold Inc.
Quiet · 0/100
+0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ARISAris Mining Corporation
Quiet · 0/100
+0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
Quiet · 0/100
+0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
MUXMcEwen Inc.
Quiet · 0/100
-0.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.Participating+2.0%55.6% of 9 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
HLHecla Mining CompanyParticipating+1.9%66.7% of 9 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FSMFortuna Mining Corp.Participating+1.5%0% of 9 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AGIAlamos Gold Inc.Participating+1.3%11.1% of 9 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
PAASPan American Silver Corp.Most unusual+3.7%33.3% of 9 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
SBSWSibanye Stillwater LimitedParticipating+1.6%0% of 9 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
EXKEndeavour Silver Corp.Participating+0.1%77.8% of 9 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BTGB2Gold Corp.Quiet / lagging+1.8%0% of 9 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
GAUGaliano Gold Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.9%0% of 9 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ARISAris Mining CorporationQuiet / lagging+0.8%0% of 9 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.Quiet / lagging+0.8%0% of 9 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
MUXMcEwen Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.1%0% of 9 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

3/3 events completed
30 minutes-0.46%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
60 minutes-1.37%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
Session close+0.23%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
Next-session close-0.41%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 5 completed episodes across 9 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support62 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes5Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions9Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-202 active sessions66.7% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-051 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-27 → 2026-07-304 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-221 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-161 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
EXK77.8% · 4 episodes
HL66.7% · 3 episodes
AG55.6% · 3 episodes
PAAS33.3% · 3 episodes
AGI11.1% · 1 episode
ARIS0% · 0 episodes
ASM0% · 0 episodes
BTG0% · 0 episodes
FSM0% · 0 episodes
GAU0% · 0 episodes
MUX0% · 0 episodes
SBSW0% · 0 episodes