Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 29 · 18:28 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Gold and Silver Miners

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

9 of 11 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 7.5 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 12%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth9 up · 2 down+0.4% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment12%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 0/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth6 episodes10 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceEXK registered the first material downside path

    -0.87% session path at the threshold · EXK

  2. 5-minute inferenceHL registered a material upside path

    +0.47% session path at the threshold · HL

  3. 5-minute inferenceSVM registered a material upside path

    +1.33% session path at the threshold · SVM

  4. 5-minute inferenceGAU registered a material upside path

    +0.88% session path at the threshold · GAU

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.5 effective names. SVM represents 21.0% of absolute path energy; 9 of 11 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad21.0% from the largest path
Effective names7.5 / 11Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth9/11 alignedupside relative path · 2 counter-moving
Largest moverSVM 21.0%39.9% from the top two paths
SVM21.0%Aligned contributor · path +2.22% · basket +0.20pp
GAU18.9%Aligned contributor · path +2.00% · basket +0.18pp
EXK14.1%Counter-move · path -1.49% · basket -0.14pp
HL10.2%Aligned contributor · path +1.08% · basket +0.10pp
AG9.8%Aligned contributor · path +1.03% · basket +0.09pp
PAAS7.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.79% · basket +0.07pp
MUX7.2%Counter-move · path -0.77% · basket -0.07pp
AGI3.7%Aligned contributor · path +0.39% · basket +0.04pp
FSM3.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.37% · basket +0.03pp
PSLV2.1%Aligned contributor · path +0.22% · basket +0.02pp
ASM1.9%Aligned contributor · path +0.20% · basket +0.02pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. EXK moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.87%
  2. HL registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.47%
  3. SVM registered a material higher path35m after the first price move · path +1.33%
  4. GAU registered a material higher path35m after the first price move · path +0.88%
  5. PAAS registered a material higher path35m after the first price move · path +0.73%
  6. AGI registered a material higher path35m after the first price move · path +0.79%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 29 · 09:30 ETMove visible 10:20 ETSep 29 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.39%Strongest relative path SVMWeakest relative path EXK

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

HYMCNot confirming

HL · text peer

IDRNot confirming

MUX · text peer

SCCONot confirming

HL · text peer

REANot confirming

MUX · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
ASMFSMPAASGAUSVMEXKPSLVAGIAGMUXHL

5/11 active9 rising · 2 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.4%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FSMFortuna Mining Corp.
Elevated · 82/100
+1.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 10% of observed group sessions
PAASPan American Silver Corp.
Elevated · 72/100
+0.8%
Aligned price + flowActive in 30% of observed group sessions
GAUGaliano Gold Inc.
Elevated · 68/100
+2.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SVMSilvercorp Metals Inc.
Elevated · 61/100
+0.8%
Aligned path contributorActive in 20% of observed group sessions
EXKEndeavour Silver Corp.
Quiet · 55/100
-2.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 70% of observed group sessions
PSLVSprott Physical Silver Trust
Quiet · 49/100
+0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AGIAlamos Gold Inc.
Quiet · 42/100
+1.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 20% of observed group sessions
AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.
Quiet · 41/100
+0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
MUXMcEwen Inc.
Quiet · 40/100
-0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 10% of observed group sessions
HLHecla Mining Company
Quiet · 32/100
+0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 60% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.Most unusual+0.4%0% of 10 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
FSMFortuna Mining Corp.Participating+1.3%10% of 10 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PAASPan American Silver Corp.Participating+0.8%30% of 10 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
GAUGaliano Gold Inc.Participating+2.3%0% of 10 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SVMSilvercorp Metals Inc.Participating+0.8%20% of 10 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
EXKEndeavour Silver Corp.Quiet / lagging-2.6%70% of 10 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PSLVSprott Physical Silver TrustQuiet / lagging+0.3%0% of 10 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AGIAlamos Gold Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.0%20% of 10 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.Quiet / lagging+0.8%50% of 10 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
MUXMcEwen Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.7%10% of 10 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
HLHecla Mining CompanyQuiet / lagging+0.9%60% of 10 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

3/3 events completed
30 minutes-0.46%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
60 minutes-1.37%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
Session close+0.23%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
Next-session close-0.41%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

6 completed episodes across 10 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support72 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes6Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions10Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-221 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-202 active sessions66.7% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-051 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-27 → 2026-07-304 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-221 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-161 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
EXK70% · 4 episodes
HL60% · 3 episodes
AG50% · 3 episodes
PAAS30% · 3 episodes
AGI20% · 2 episodes
SVM20% · 2 episodes
FSM10% · 1 episode
MUX10% · 1 episode
ASM0% · 0 episodes
GAU0% · 0 episodes
PSLV0% · 0 episodes