Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 19 · 18:07 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Gold and Silver Miners

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

8 of 8 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 7.2 effective names. HYMC, NEM, RGLD are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 44%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth8 of 8 rising+4.6% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment44%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 63/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth5 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

5 timed events · 09:35–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceCDE registered the first material upside path

    +1.45% session path at the threshold · CDE

  2. 5-minute inferenceSVM registered a material upside path

    +1.11% session path at the threshold · SVM

  3. 5-minute inferenceSA registered a material upside path

    +0.45% session path at the threshold · SA

  4. 5-minute inferenceHL registered a material upside path

    +1.97% session path at the threshold · HL

  5. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    78% breadth · Hot activity

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.2 effective names. HL represents 20.0% of absolute path energy; 8 of 8 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad20.0% from the largest path
Effective names7.2 / 8Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth8/8 alignedupside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverHL 20.0%34.5% from the top two paths
HL20.0%Aligned contributor · path +6.93% · basket +0.87pp
AG14.5%Aligned contributor · path +5.02% · basket +0.63pp
EXK14.0%Aligned contributor · path +4.86% · basket +0.61pp
CDE13.7%Aligned contributor · path +4.75% · basket +0.59pp
PPTA13.0%Aligned contributor · path +4.49% · basket +0.56pp
SVM10.6%Aligned contributor · path +3.66% · basket +0.46pp
SKE9.1%Aligned contributor · path +3.14% · basket +0.39pp
SA5.0%Aligned contributor · path +1.72% · basket +0.21pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. CDE moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +1.45%
  2. SVM registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.11%
  3. SA registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.45%
  4. HL registered a material higher path5m after the first price move · path +1.97%
  5. EXK registered a material higher path25m after the first price move · path +1.35%
  6. PPTA registered a material higher path25m after the first price move · path +1.22%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 19 · 09:35 ETMove visible 10:05 ETAug 19 · 15:55 ET
Group median +4.62%Strongest relative path HLWeakest relative path SA

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

4 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

HYMCMoving with group

CDE · text peer

NEMMoving with group

CDE · text peer

RGLDMoving with group

CDE · text peer

NGMoving with group

CDE · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
AGEXKHLCDESKEPPTASVMSA

6/8 active8 rising · 0 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.
Most unusual · 100/100
+12.8%
Aligned price + flowActive in 50% of observed group sessions
EXKEndeavour Silver Corp.
Elevated · 53/100
+13.8%
Aligned price + flowActive in 75% of observed group sessions
HLHecla Mining Company
Elevated · 49/100
+14.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 62.5% of observed group sessions
CDECoeur Mining, Inc.
Elevated · 48/100
+13.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 87.5% of observed group sessions
SKESkeena Resources Limited
Elevated · 27/100
+9.8%
Aligned path contributorActive in 50% of observed group sessions
PPTAPerpetua Resources Corp.
Elevated · 25/100
+8.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 37.5% of observed group sessions
SVMSilvercorp Metals Inc.
Quiet · 23/100
+9.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
SASeabridge Gold Inc.
Quiet · 19/100
+8.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
AGFirst Majestic Silver Corp.Most unusual+12.8%50% of 8 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
EXKEndeavour Silver Corp.Participating+13.8%75% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
HLHecla Mining CompanyParticipating+14.4%62.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
CDECoeur Mining, Inc.Participating+13.0%87.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
SKESkeena Resources LimitedParticipating+9.8%50% of 8 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PPTAPerpetua Resources Corp.Participating+8.6%37.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SVMSilvercorp Metals Inc.Quiet / lagging+9.4%12.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SASeabridge Gold Inc.Quiet / lagging+8.3%50% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

1/1 events completed
30 minutes-0.46%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
60 minutes-1.37%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
Session close+0.23%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.48%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 5 completed episodes across 8 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support51 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes5Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions8Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-191 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-051 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-27 → 2026-07-304 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-221 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-161 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
CDE87.5% · 5 episodes
EXK75% · 4 episodes
HL62.5% · 3 episodes
AG50% · 3 episodes
SA50% · 3 episodes
SKE50% · 3 episodes
PPTA37.5% · 2 episodes
SVM12.5% · 1 episode