Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 14 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Insurance Providers

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 10 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 5%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth5 up · 5 downRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment5%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowNormalActivity score 46/100 · lift 1.0×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

1 timed event
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.
2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, FEB 25ACGL filing documented shared operating contextrestructuring · date precision only

WED, MAR 11HRTG filing documented shared operating contextrestructuring · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

12/12 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across ACGL, AGO, AXS, BRK-A, BRK-B, CINF, EG, TRV.

restructuring

For the year ended December 31, 2023 , the Company recorded an impairment of $ 767,000 associated with the Company construction affiliate resulting from changes to its operations.

HRTG 10-K · 2026-03-12
credit / rates affecting interest expense

For the Three Months Ended March 31, (Unaudited) 2026 2025 $ Change % Change (in thousands, except per share amounts) Operating income 50,818 42,436 8,382 19.8 % Interest expense, net 1,779 2,426 (647 ) (26.7 )% Income before income taxes 49,039 40,010 9,029 22.6 % Provision for income taxes 12,556 9,536 3,020 31.7 % Net income $ 36,483 $ 30,474 $ 6,009 19.7 % Basic earnings per share $ 1.19 $ 0.99 $ 0.20 20.2 % Diluted earnings per share $ 1.19 $ 0.99 $ 0.20 20.2 % 30 Net income First quarter ended 2026 net income was $36.5 million or $1.19 per diluted share, compared to net income of $30.5 million or $0.99 per diluted share in the prior year quarter, primarily driven by higher investment income and a reduction in losses, partly offset by higher general and administrative expenses.

HRTG 10-Q · 2026-05-08
demand / volume

New originations remained modest due to affordability challenges tied to mortgage rates and home prices, which continued to constrain demand.

ACGL 10-Q · 2026-05-05
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming
WULFAGGInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.13

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

WTMMoving with group

ACGL · text peer

RLIMoving with group

AXS · text peer

SIGINot confirming

TRV · text peer

UFCSRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

AFG · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
HRTGCINFAIGHIGTRVACGLAXSAFGBRK-BBRK-AEGAGO

8/12 active5 rising · 5 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, In
Most unusual · 100/100
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation
Elevated · 82/100
+0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
AIGAmerican International Group, I
Elevated · 76/100
+0.7%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
Elevated · 49/100
-0.8%
Flow confirmerActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.
Elevated · 47/100
-0.3%
Flow confirmerActive in 50% of observed group sessions
ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.
Elevated · 45/100
+0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
AXSAxis Capital Holdings Limited
Elevated · 38/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
AFGAmerican Financial Group, Inc.
Elevated · 37/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 100% of observed group sessions
BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc.
Quiet · 35/100
-0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BRK-ABerkshire Hathaway Inc.
Quiet · 31/100
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
EGEverest Group, Ltd.
Quiet · 29/100
+0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.
Quiet · 26/100
+0.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, InMost unusual50% of 2 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationParticipating+0.1%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AIGAmerican International Group, IParticipating+0.7%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.Participating-0.8%0% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.Participating-0.3%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.Participating+0.1%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AXSAxis Capital Holdings LimitedParticipating-0.1%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AFGAmerican Financial Group, Inc.Participating-0.1%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.2%0% of 2 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BRK-ABerkshire Hathaway Inc.Quiet / lagging0% of 2 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EGEverest Group, Ltd.Quiet / lagging+0.4%0% of 2 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.Quiet / lagging+0.1%50% of 2 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

One continuous episode spans 2 active sessions; the independent episode sample remains low—context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support4 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions2Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-092 active sessions12.5% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
AFG100% · 1 episode
ACGL50% · 1 episode
AGO50% · 1 episode
AIG50% · 1 episode
AXS50% · 1 episode
CINF50% · 1 episode
HRTG50% · 1 episode
TRV50% · 1 episode
BRK-A0% · 0 episodes
BRK-B0% · 0 episodes
EG0% · 0 episodes
HIG0% · 0 episodes