Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regulated Electric Utilities

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

12 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 11.8 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 15 cohort members. VST, CNP, SO are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 8%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth15 of 15 falling-1.7% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment8%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowExtremeActivity score 97/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth6 episodes65 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

6 timed events · 10:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READA verified headline preceded the first measured price move in the common-bar window by 895 minutes. The timing makes it a catalyst candidate, not proof of cause.
  2. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    87% breadth · Hot activity

  3. 5-minute inferenceAEP registered the first material downside path

    -0.69% session path at the threshold · AEP

  4. 5-minute inferenceNI registered a material downside path

    -0.52% session path at the threshold · NI

  5. 5-minute inferencePEG registered a material downside path

    -0.55% session path at the threshold · PEG

  6. 5-minute inferenceAEE registered a material downside path

    -0.51% session path at the threshold · AEE

2 earlier filing context receipts

SUN, AUG 2AEE filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 5EVRG filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 11.8 effective names. AEP represents 11.2% of absolute path energy; 12 of 12 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad11.2% from the largest path
Effective names11.8 / 1212 of 15 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth12/12 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverAEP 11.2%20.8% from the top two paths
AEP11.2%Aligned contributor · path -2.26% · basket -0.19pp
NI9.6%Aligned contributor · path -1.95% · basket -0.16pp
PEG9.2%Aligned contributor · path -1.85% · basket -0.15pp
AEE8.5%Aligned contributor · path -1.71% · basket -0.14pp
ETR8.4%Aligned contributor · path -1.70% · basket -0.14pp
PPL8.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.67% · basket -0.14pp
LNT8.1%Aligned contributor · path -1.63% · basket -0.14pp
OGE8.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.62% · basket -0.14pp
EVRG7.5%Aligned contributor · path -1.50% · basket -0.13pp
DTE7.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.47% · basket -0.12pp
FE7.1%Aligned contributor · path -1.43% · basket -0.12pp
IDA6.8%Aligned contributor · path -1.37% · basket -0.11pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. AEP moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.69%
  2. NI registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.52%
  3. PEG registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.55%
  4. AEE registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.51%
  5. ETR registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.59%
  6. LNT registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.42%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 21 · 10:30 ETMove visible 10:55 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.65%Strongest relative path IDAWeakest relative path AEP

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

15/15 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AEE, AEP, DTE, ETR, EVRG, FE, IDA, LNT, NI, OGE, PEG, PPL, SRE.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Interest Expense Evergy's interest expense increased $12.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, primarily driven by: • a $19.1 million increase due to issuances of long-term debt; and • a $10.1 million increase in interest expense on short-term borrowings primarily due to higher short-term debt balances in the second quarter of 2026; partially offset by • an $8.8 million decrease due to the repayment of long-term debt; and • a $6.9 million decrease due to higher debt AFUDC primarily at Evergy Missouri West driven by higher average CWIP balances in the second quarter of 2026.”

EVRG 10-Q · 2026-08-06
demand / volume affecting orders

“We identified the impact of rate regulation as a critical audit matter due to the significant judgments made by management to support its assertions about impacted account balances and disclosures and the degree of subjectivity involved in assessing the impact of future regulatory orders on the financial statements.”

EVRG 10-K · 2026-02-19
demand / volume affecting expense

“Three Months Ended June 30 Year to Date June 30 2026 Change 2025 2026 Change 2025 (millions, except per share amounts) Net income attributable to Evergy, Inc. $ 215.0 $ 43.7 $ 171.3 $ 366.5 $ 70.2 $ 296.3 Earnings per common share, diluted 0.91 0.17 0.74 1.55 0.27 1.28 Net income attributable to Evergy, Inc. increased for the three months ended June 30, 2026, compared to the same period in 2025, primarily due to new Evergy Kansas Central retail rates effective in October 2025, higher retail sales in the second quarter of 2026 driven by favorable weather and higher weather-normalized demand, and gains in 2026 compared to losses in 2025 from non-regulated investments in early-stage clean energy and energy solution companies; partially offset by higher interest, depreciation and operating and maintenance expense.”

EVRG 10-Q · 2026-08-06
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

5 outsiders confirming
PSX → HYGPositive historical lead/lag · strength 0.22
PSX → SLVPositive historical lead/lag · strength 0.20

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

VSTMoving with group

AEE · text peer

CNPMoving with group

ETR · text peer

SOMoving with group

ETR · text peer

EDMoving with group

AEP · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
EVRGNIXELFEAEPOGEPEGWECPPLAEESRELNTIDADTEETR

15/15 active0 rising · 15 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
EVRGEvergy, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-2.7%
Aligned path contributorActive in 36.9% of observed group sessions
NINiSource Inc.
Elevated · 78/100
-2.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 18.5% of observed group sessions
XELXcel Energy Inc.
Elevated · 61/100
-3.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 9.2% of observed group sessions
FEFirstEnergy Corp.
Elevated · 61/100
-2.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 15.4% of observed group sessions
AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc.
Elevated · 39/100
-3.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 18.5% of observed group sessions
OGEOGE Energy Corp.
Elevated · 38/100
-2.4%
Aligned path contributorActive in 16.9% of observed group sessions
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated
Elevated · 38/100
-2.7%
Aligned price + flowActive in 10.8% of observed group sessions
WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.
Elevated · 37/100
-2.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 44.6% of observed group sessions
PPLPPL Corporation
Elevated · 35/100
-2.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 20% of observed group sessions
AEEAmeren Corporation
Elevated · 35/100
-2.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 33.8% of observed group sessions
SREDBA Sempra
Elevated · 24/100
-5.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 9.2% of observed group sessions
LNTAlliant Energy Corporation
Elevated · 24/100
-2.4%
Aligned path contributorActive in 32.3% of observed group sessions
IDAIDACORP, Inc.
Elevated · 21/100
-2.2%
Aligned path contributorActive in 16.9% of observed group sessions
DTEDTE Energy Company
Participating · 15/100
-2.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 41.5% of observed group sessions
ETREntergy Corporation
Participating · 14/100
-2.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 7.7% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
EVRGEvergy, Inc.Most unusual-2.7%36.9% of 65 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
NINiSource Inc.Participating-2.4%18.5% of 65 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
XELXcel Energy Inc.Participating-3.1%9.2% of 65 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FEFirstEnergy Corp.Participating-2.6%15.4% of 65 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc.Participating-3.9%18.5% of 65 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
OGEOGE Energy Corp.Participating-2.4%16.9% of 65 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group IncorporatedParticipating-2.7%10.8% of 65 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.Participating-2.3%44.6% of 65 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PPLPPL CorporationParticipating-2.4%20% of 65 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
AEEAmeren CorporationParticipating-2.4%33.8% of 65 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SREDBA SempraParticipating-5.1%9.2% of 65 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LNTAlliant Energy CorporationParticipating-2.4%32.3% of 65 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
IDAIDACORP, Inc.Participating-2.2%16.9% of 65 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
DTEDTE Energy CompanyParticipating-2.1%41.5% of 65 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ETREntergy CorporationParticipating-2.5%7.7% of 65 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

10/10 events completed
30 minutes-0.15%25% continuation · n=8Median MFE +0.22% · MAE -0.47%
60 minutes-0.14%25% continuation · n=8Median MFE +0.22% · MAE -0.47%
Session close+0.02%50% continuation · n=8Median MFE +0.22% · MAE -0.47%
Next-session close-0.17%29% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.11% · MAE -0.54%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

6 completed episodes across 65 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support100 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes6Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions65Completed session observations, not trades
2026-06-23 → 2026-08-2142 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-15 → 2026-06-184 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-01 → 2026-06-032 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-05-271 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-05-14 → 2026-05-205 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-04-21 → 2026-05-0811 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
WEC44.6% · 4 episodes
DTE41.5% · 5 episodes
EVRG36.9% · 4 episodes
AEE33.8% · 4 episodes
LNT32.3% · 6 episodes
PPL20% · 2 episodes
AEP18.5% · 2 episodes
NI18.5% · 3 episodes
IDA16.9% · 4 episodes
OGE16.9% · 4 episodes
FE15.4% · 2 episodes
PEG10.8% · 2 episodes
SRE9.2% · 2 episodes
XEL9.2% · 1 episode
ETR7.7% · 2 episodes