Feed / VST

Vistra Corp.

VST

Utilities · 151.09 -0.4% today

Isolated · not yet confirmedMarket checked 9 Sept, 15:55 GMT-4

Market read

Vistra Corp.'s current read is isolated; its market group is not confirming.

The latest filing evidence is available. 0 of 15 group members are active now; 0 filing-linked outsiders are moving with the group, and 0 of 6 directly disclosed connections are confirming.

What changed
  • Revenue increased 17.7% versus the comparable filing period.
Company-0.4% todayVolume comparison unavailable
Market group0 of 15 activeMixed Risk Exposure · unavailable
Disclosed network0 of 6 confirmingNo filing-linked name is confirming now
What would change this read
  • Company reported a $2.752 billion increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains on commodity derivative positions that materially affected Texas net income.
  • Reported $64 million increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains on interest rate swaps reduced interest expense for the quarter.

Invalidation: The isolated read changes if VST's group or a disclosed connection begins moving with it.

Watch this read

Research brief

The story so far

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

The latest filing evidence is available. 0 of 15 group members are active now; 0 filing-linked outsiders are moving with the group, and 0 of 6 directly disclosed connections are confirming.

Evidence that supports
  • Revenue increased 17.7% versus the comparable filing period.
  • Operating income moved from a loss to a profit in the comparable period.
Evidence that challenges

No thresholded adverse filing evidence is available yet.

What would clarify the read
  • Company reported a $2.752 billion increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains on commodity derivative positions that materially affected Texas net income.
  • Reported $64 million increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains on interest rate swaps reduced interest expense for the quarter.

Company research

Understand the business, not just the ticker

As of Sep 10, 2026
Business model and earnings drivers

Use the company’s filings to identify the few operating, demand, cost, capital and regulatory variables that determine its earnings power.

Key research questions
  • Which operating variable is changing?
  • Is that change durable, cyclical or one-off?
  • What evidence would disprove the current interpretation?
Annual periods9
Price observations600
Usable filing statements98
Verified relationships6
Evidence supporting the case
  • Latest annual revenue changed +19.1% year over year.
  • Operating cash flow covered net income at 4.31x in the latest annual period.
Evidence challenging the case
  • Operating margin changed -16.8 percentage points in the latest annual period.
  • Net margin changed -12.6 percentage points in the latest annual period.
  • Credit and interest rates has repeated adverse evidence across 4 filings.
  • Energy and commodity prices has repeated adverse evidence across 4 filings.
Questions before a position

No credible peer-relative valuation comparison is available yet.

Longer-term price context

Price as of Sep 9, 2026

151.09
6m-8.1%12m-19.6%24m+97.0%
Annual trajectory

Reported annual revenue and per-share history. This is accounting history, not a forecast.

PeriodRevenueYoYDiluted EPSShare change
2021-12-31$17.7B+63.1%$-2.69-1.8%
2022-12-31$15.6B-11.7%$-3.26-12.4%
2023-12-31$13.8B-11.7%$3.58-11.2%
2024-12-31$14.8B+6.9%$7.00-6.0%
2025-12-31$17.6B+19.1%$2.18-2.0%

What management says matters

Persistent and emerging business drivers

Credit and interest ratesmixed · 4 filings
For the six months ended June 30, 2026 compared to six months ended June 30, 2025, interest expense and related charges decreased primarily due to an $81 million increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains on interest rate swaps, partially offset by $35 milli…
10-Q · Aug 10, 2026
Energy and commodity pricesmixed · 4 filings
For the six months ended June 30, 2026 compared to the six months ended June 30, 2025, fuel, purchased power costs, and delivery fees decreased primarily due to a $264 million increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains on commodity derivative positions and l…
10-Q · Aug 10, 2026
Capital investment and capacitypositive · 2 filings
Capital Expenditures Estimated 2026 capital expenditures and nuclear fuel purchases as of December 31, 2025 total approximately $2.587 billion and include: • $1.087 billion for investments in generation and mining facilities inclusive of LTSA prepayments; • $…
10-K · Feb 27, 2026
Demand and volumepositive · 1 filings
The primary drivers for the increase include: Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 Compared to 2024 Retail Texas East West (in millions) Favorable change in realized revenue net of fuel in East driven by higher volumes and margins.
10-Q · Aug 8, 2025

Valuation discipline

Peer-relative valuation withheld

Jodie found no industry-matched filing peers suitable for a valuation comparison. It will not substitute broader financial-sector names.

Scenario scaffold

Mechanical 2.0-year scenarios are available as editable assumptions, not consensus.

Price action

How the market is pricing the story

151.09-0.4% today

Jodie does not have enough daily observations to draw a useful short-term chart for this asset. The latest quoted price was checked 9 Sept, 15:55 GMT-4; this is a coverage limitation, not a flat-price conclusion.

Developments

No sourced recent-development timeline yet

Jodie has not returned a relevant primary source or news item for VST. This is an evidence-coverage gap, not a conclusion that nothing material happened.

Business and financial condition

Reported financial figures are not available yet

Jodie has not returned structured SEC XBRL fundamentals for this asset. This is a coverage limitation, not an assessment of the business or its financial health.

Latest filing assessment · baseline

Fundamentals strengthened in the latest filing

10-Q filed 2026-05-08 against the comparable filing from 2025-05-08.

constructive
OperationsconstructiveEvidence score +4
liquidityneutralEvidence score 0
valuationmixed

What improved

  • Revenue increased 17.7% versus the comparable filing period.
  • Operating income moved from a loss to a profit in the comparable period.

What weakened

No thresholded deterioration was identified.

Filing receipts

Sources and Uses of Cash Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 2025 Change (in millions) Net cash provided by operating activities $ 1,199 $ 599 $ 600 Net cash used in investing activities $ (638) $ (1,061) $ 423 Net cash used in financing activities $ (706) $ (164) $ (542) Operating Cash Flows The change in net cash provided by operating activities was primarily driven by (i) increased realized revenue net of fuel driven primarily by higher realized capacity prices and energy margins, (ii) increase in realized revenue net of expenses from the addition of plants acquired in the Lotus Acquisition and (iii) a $284 million increase in net margin deposits as $67 million in net margin deposits suppo...

Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 2025 (in millions) Interest expense and related charges $ (263) $ (319) Interest expense and related charges decreased primarily due to a $64 million increase in unrealized mark-to-market gains on interest rate swaps.

Retail Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 2025 (in millions) Net income (loss) $ (724) $ 1,132 Adjusted EBITDA $ 68 $ 184 Retail electricity sales volumes (GWh): Sales volumes in ERCOT 15,904 17,965 Sales volumes in Northeast/Midwest 14,205 15,358 Total retail electricity sales volumes 30,109 33,323 Retail net income decreased due to a $1.762 billion increase in unrealized mark-to-market losses on commodity derivative positions and a decrease in retail margins primarily due to an increase in excess volumes sold at lower wholesale prices and a decrease in customer consumption due to weather.

Retrospective baseline calibration. It was generated after the filing date and is not part of Jodie's live track record.

Business ecosystem

The relationships behind VST

Customers, suppliers, partners and competitors named in company filings—not inferred from headlines.

Depends on

AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.customerFeb 27, 2026

Long-term contracts entered in 2025 underwrite higher base profitability in the future.

METAMeta Platforms, Inc.customerFeb 27, 2026

We anticipate power delivery to begin in the fourth quarter of 2027 and ramp to full capacity by 2032.

Depended on by

CIFRCipher Digital Inc.partnerMay 5, 2026

At the end of the lease term for the Interconnection Electrical Facilities, the substation will be sold back to Luminant’s affiliate, Vistra Operations Company, LLC at a price to be determined based upon bids obtained in the secondary market.

Filing peers

Companies whose filings use similar operating language.

Open the three relationships above to see Jodie’s filing proof. Pro unlocks 3 more links, every receipt, and alerts when connected names begin moving. Unlock the full network →

What is moving around it

Live connections

VST is currently a Participant in the organic co-movement group Mixed Risk Exposure. This group is discovered from market behaviour rather than assigned from an industry taxonomy. 3 filing-linked names are in the relationship map; none is currently confirmed as moving with the group.

This group is retained as the last observed read for VST; it is not active in the latest market snapshot.

Context history

Theme membership history

No durable theme membership has been observed for this name yet.