Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 11 · 18:07 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Consumer Cyclicals

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

8 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 9.5 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 13 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 8%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth9 up · 3 down+0.5% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment8%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 65/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 10:55–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceCCK registered the first material downside path

    -0.56% session path at the threshold · CCK

  2. 5-minute inferenceDRI registered a material upside path

    +0.83% session path at the threshold · DRI

  3. 5-minute inferenceSMG registered a material upside path

    +1.19% session path at the threshold · SMG

  4. 5-minute inferenceNVR registered a material upside path

    +0.77% session path at the threshold · NVR

2 earlier filing context receipts

MON, AUG 3AVY filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 5ECL filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 9.5 effective names. CCK represents 15.1% of absolute path energy; 8 of 12 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad15.1% from the largest path
Effective names9.5 / 1212 of 13 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth8/12 alignedupside relative path · 4 counter-moving
Largest moverCCK 15.1%30.1% from the top two paths
CCK15.1%Counter-move · path -1.05% · basket -0.09pp
DRI15.0%Aligned contributor · path +1.04% · basket +0.09pp
SMG12.8%Aligned contributor · path +0.89% · basket +0.07pp
NVR11.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.79% · basket +0.07pp
AMBP8.7%Aligned contributor · path +0.60% · basket +0.05pp
SHW8.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.58% · basket +0.05pp
AVY7.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.52% · basket +0.04pp
OTIS6.8%Aligned contributor · path +0.47% · basket +0.04pp
SLGN5.8%Counter-move · path -0.40% · basket -0.03pp
LOW3.7%Counter-move · path -0.26% · basket -0.02pp
ECL3.0%Aligned contributor · path +0.21% · basket +0.02pp
HD1.8%Counter-move · path -0.13% · basket -0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. CCK moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.56%
  2. DRI registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.83%
  3. SMG registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.19%
  4. NVR registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.77%
  5. SHW registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.53%
  6. AVY registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.48%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 11 · 10:55 ETMove visible 15:50 ETAug 11 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.49%Strongest relative path DRIWeakest relative path CCK

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

12/13 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AVY, ECL, HD, LOW, NVR, OTIS, SMG, SON.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The increase in adjusted net interest expense when comparing 2026 against 2025 reflects the impact from higher interest expense from the Ovivo Electronics acquisition partially offset by lower interest rates.”

ECL 10-Q · 2026-08-06
restructuring affecting expense

“es. ​ If we add new debt, the risks described above could increase. ​ We incur significant expenses related to the amortization of intangible assets and may be required to report losses resulting from the impairment of goodwill or other assets recorded in connection with the Nalco, Purolite and Ovivo Electronics transactions and other acquisitions. ​ We expect to continue to complete selected acquisitions and joint venture transactions in the future.”

ECL 10-K · 2026-02-23
input costs affecting expense

“Although we maintain insurance, our insurance coverage may not be sufficient in type or amount to prevent or recover losses resulting from cybersecurity attacks. ​ Our results could be materially and adversely affected by difficulties in securing the supply of certain raw materials or by fluctuations in the cost of raw materials. ​ The prices of raw materials used in our business fluctuate, and in recent years we have experienced periods of significant increased raw material costs.”

ECL 10-K · 2026-02-23
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

CENTARelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

HD · customer

Filing receipt
“Home Depot, our second largest customer, represented approximately 16% of total net sales in fiscal 2025 and 17% in fiscal 2024.”
GFFNot confirming

HD · customer

Filing receipt
“In 2025, Home Depot represented 10% of Griffon’s consolidated revenue, 9% of HBP's revenue and 12% of CPP's revenue.”
PKGNot confirming

SON · customer

Filing receipt
“Segment net sales increased $775.9 million over the corresponding prior year quarter primarily as a result of $758.2 million of net sales, including the impact of foreig…”
FBINNot confirming

HD · customer

Filing receipt
“Approximately 16% of 2025 net sales were to international markets, and sales to two of the Company’s customers, Lowe’s Companies, Inc.”

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
ECLLOWCCKSONHDAVYSMGSHWAMBPNVRSLGNOTISDRI

10/13 active10 rising · 3 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
ECLEcolab Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 50% of observed group sessions
LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.
Elevated · 47/100
+1.1%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 100% of observed group sessions
CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 40/100
-0.3%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 50% of observed group sessions
SONSonoco Products Company
Elevated · 39/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 100% of observed group sessions
HDHome Depot, Inc. (The)
Elevated · 36/100
+1.0%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 100% of observed group sessions
AVYAvery Dennison Corporation
Elevated · 36/100
+0.8%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
Elevated · 33/100
-0.4%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company
Elevated · 28/100
+0.5%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Elevated · 27/100
+1.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NVRNVR, Inc.
Elevated · 26/100
+2.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 50% of observed group sessions
SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc.
Quiet · 23/100
+0.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
OTISOtis Worldwide Corporation
Quiet · 16/100
+0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.
Quiet · 15/100
+0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
ECLEcolab Inc.Most unusual+0.0%50% of 2 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.Participating+1.1%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.Participating-0.3%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SONSonoco Products CompanyParticipating-0.1%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HDHome Depot, Inc. (The)Participating+1.0%100% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
AVYAvery Dennison CorporationParticipating+0.8%0% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro CompanyParticipating-0.4%0% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SHWThe Sherwin-Williams CompanyParticipating+0.5%0% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A.Participating+1.6%0% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NVRNVR, Inc.Participating+2.0%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.1%0% of 2 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
OTISOtis Worldwide CorporationQuiet / lagging+0.3%0% of 2 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.5%50% of 2 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 2 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support3 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions2Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-111 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-061 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
HD100% · 2 episodes
LOW100% · 2 episodes
SON100% · 2 episodes
CCK50% · 1 episode
DRI50% · 1 episode
ECL50% · 1 episode
NVR50% · 1 episode
AMBP0% · 0 episodes
AVY0% · 0 episodes
OTIS0% · 0 episodes
SHW0% · 0 episodes
SLGN0% · 0 episodes
SMG0% · 0 episodes