Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Consumer Cyclicals

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

7 of 11 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 6.0 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 11 of 15 cohort members. BALL, KMB are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 13%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth11 up · 3 down+0.3% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment13%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowNormalActivity score 59/100 · lift 1.0×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 10:15–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceLKQ registered the first material upside path

    +2.16% session path at the threshold · LKQ

  2. 5-minute inferenceGEF registered a material downside path

    -2.48% session path at the threshold · GEF

  3. 5-minute inferenceNVR registered a material upside path

    +0.98% session path at the threshold · NVR

  4. 5-minute inferenceOTIS registered a material upside path

    +0.98% session path at the threshold · OTIS

2 earlier filing context receipts

SUN, FEB 22ECL filing documented shared operating contextrestructuring affecting expense · date precision only

MON, AUG 3AVY filing documented shared operating contextrestructuring affecting expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 6.0 effective names. LKQ represents 25.7% of absolute path energy; 7 of 11 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad25.7% from the largest path
Effective names6.0 / 1111 of 15 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth7/11 alignedupside relative path · 2 counter-moving
Largest moverLKQ 25.7%49.5% from the top two paths
LKQ25.7%Dominant mover · path +2.11% · basket +0.19pp
GEF23.8%Counter-move · path -1.95% · basket -0.18pp
NVR14.9%Aligned contributor · path +1.22% · basket +0.11pp
OTIS8.2%Aligned contributor · path +0.67% · basket +0.06pp
CCK7.7%Counter-move · path -0.63% · basket -0.06pp
AMBP6.3%Aligned contributor · path +0.52% · basket +0.05pp
SHW5.1%Aligned contributor · path +0.42% · basket +0.04pp
ECL4.2%Aligned contributor · path +0.34% · basket +0.03pp
HD2.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.21% · basket +0.02pp
AVY1.0%Flat / inactive path · path -0.08% · basket -0.01pp
LOW0.5%Flat / inactive path · path -0.04% · basket -0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. LKQ moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +2.16%
  2. GEF registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -2.48%
  3. NVR registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.98%
  4. OTIS registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.98%
  5. CCK registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.43%
  6. AMBP registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.40%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 11 · 10:15 ETMove visible 13:20 ETSep 11 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.34%Strongest relative path LKQWeakest relative path GEF

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

14/15 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AVY, ECL, HD, LKQ, NVR, OTIS, SMG, SON.

restructuring affecting expense

The primary factors affecting this increase were: • Higher volume • Benefits from productivity initiatives, including savings from restructuring actions, net of transition costs • Net benefit of pricing and raw material costs, including material re-engineering • Favorable foreign currency translation These items were partially offset by the following factors: • Unfavorable mix • Higher employee-related costs • Higher provision for income taxes • Higher restructuring charges, net of reversals Cost Reduction Actions 2026 Actions We recorded $34.7 million in restructuring charges during the six months ended June 30, 2026 related to our 2026 actions.

AVY 10-Q · 2026-08-04
input costs affecting expense

Macroeconomic developments such as impacts from slower growth in the geographic regions in which we operate; inflation resulting from, among other things, increased raw material, energy and freight costs; labor shortages; geopolitical, social, supply chain and other disruptions; epidemics, pandemics or other outbreaks of illness, disease or virus; and uncertainty in global credit or financial markets could result in a material adverse effect on our business as a result of, among other things, lower consumer spending, fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, reduced asset valuations, diminished liquidity and credit availability, volatility in securities prices, and credit rating downgrades.

AVY 10-Q · 2026-08-04
demand / volume

The indirect impact on demand for our products and solutions as a result of these events, which have resulted in softer consumer volumes, continues to be uncertain and elevated.

AVY 10-Q · 2026-08-04
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

BALLMoving with group

CCK · text peer

KMBMoving with group

AVY · text peer

GPKNot confirming

CCK · text peer

OINot confirming

CCK · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
AVYSONLOWGEF-BCCKECLHDSHWAMBPGEFLKQSMGSLGNOTISNVR

10/15 active11 rising · 3 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
AVYAvery Dennison Corporation
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
SONSonoco Products Company
Elevated · 53/100
-1.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.
Elevated · 47/100
+0.1%
Flow confirmerActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
GEF-BGreif, Inc.
Elevated · 46/100
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.
Elevated · 45/100
-0.1%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 50% of observed group sessions
ECLEcolab Inc.
Elevated · 39/100
+1.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
HDThe Home Depot, Inc.
Elevated · 31/100
+1.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company
Elevated · 31/100
+1.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A.
Elevated · 29/100
+0.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
GEFGreif, Inc.
Elevated · 29/100
-1.6%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
LKQLKQ Corporation
Elevated · 29/100
+2.1%
Dominant path moverActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
Quiet · 25/100
+0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc.
Quiet · 23/100
+0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
OTISOtis Worldwide Corporation
Quiet · 22/100
+1.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
NVRNVR, Inc.
Quiet · 19/100
+1.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
AVYAvery Dennison CorporationMost unusual+0.4%33.3% of 6 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
SONSonoco Products CompanyParticipating-1.3%50% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.Participating+0.1%66.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
GEF-BGreif, Inc.Participating0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.Participating-0.1%50% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ECLEcolab Inc.Participating+1.6%66.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
HDThe Home Depot, Inc.Participating+1.0%33.3% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
SHWThe Sherwin-Williams CompanyParticipating+1.9%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
AMBPArdagh Metal Packaging S.A.Participating+0.6%16.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
GEFGreif, Inc.Participating-1.6%16.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LKQLKQ CorporationParticipating+2.1%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
SMGThe Scotts Miracle-Gro CompanyQuiet / lagging+0.4%33.3% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.2%0% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
OTISOtis Worldwide CorporationQuiet / lagging+1.8%33.3% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NVRNVR, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.2%33.3% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

3/3 events completed
30 minutes+0.15%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.44% · MAE -1.11%
60 minutes-1.07%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.44% · MAE -1.11%
Session close+0.17%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.44% · MAE -1.11%
Next-session close-0.90%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.44% · MAE -1.11%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 6 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support9 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions6Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-11 → 2026-08-195 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-08-061 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
ECL66.7% · 1 episode
LOW66.7% · 2 episodes
CCK50% · 1 episode
SON50% · 2 episodes
AVY33.3% · 1 episode
HD33.3% · 2 episodes
NVR33.3% · 2 episodes
OTIS33.3% · 1 episode
SMG33.3% · 1 episode
AMBP16.7% · 1 episode
GEF16.7% · 1 episode
GEF-B0% · 0 episodes
LKQ0% · 0 episodes
SHW0% · 0 episodes
SLGN0% · 0 episodes