Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jun 30 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 14 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 36%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth5 up · 5 downRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment36%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 88/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

THU, FEB 26EFSC filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, MAR 3ALRS filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

14/14 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across CTBI, FCF, PRK, RBCAA, SMBC, STBA, TRST.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The decrease in deposit interest expense reflects lower rates paid on deposits, partially offset by successful marketing efforts and acquired deposits in connection with the Branch Acquisition that increased average deposit balances.”

EFSC 10-K · 2026-02-27
credit / rates

“Despite the increase in borrowings, the Company’s cost of funds decreased in 2025 compared to 2024, as a result of the lower interest rate environment.”

ALRS 10-K · 2026-03-04
demand / volume

“2024 Noninterest-bearing demand accounts $ 4,874,115 $ 4,484,072 $ 390,043 8.7 % Interest-bearing demand accounts 3,537,334 3,175,292 362,042 11.4 % Money market accounts 3,991,110 3,564,063 427,047 12.0 % Savings accounts 537,400 553,461 (16,061) (2.9) % Certificates of deposit: Brokered 721,977 484,588 237,389 49.0 % Customer 947,406 885,016 62,390 7.0 % Total deposits $ 14,609,342 $ 13,146,492 $ 1,462,850 11.1 % Noninterest-bearing deposits / Total deposits 33 % 34 % Total deposits increased $1.5 billion primarily due to organic deposit growth, as well as $609.5 million of deposits from the Branch Acquisition.”

EFSC 10-K · 2026-02-27
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

NBTBNot confirming

CHCO · text peer

UCBNot confirming

EFSC · text peer

FULTNot confirming

TRST · text peer

ZIONNot confirming

NWBI · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
EFSCALRSNWBICTBICHCOSMBCPRKPEBORBCAAFCFSTBAUVSPGSBCTRST

13/14 active7 rising · 7 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
EFSCEnterprise Financial Services C
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.0%
Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions
ALRSAlerus Financial Corporation
Elevated · 66/100
+0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 100% of observed group sessions
NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.
Elevated · 59/100
+0.4%
Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions
CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc.
Elevated · 54/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 100% of observed group sessions
CHCOCity Holding Company
Elevated · 42/100
+0.4%
Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions
SMBCSouthern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.
Elevated · 41/100
+0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PRKPark National Corporation
Elevated · 40/100
-0.0%
Flow confirmerActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.
Elevated · 36/100
-0.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
RBCAARepublic Bancorp, Inc.
Elevated · 33/100
+0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FCFFirst
Elevated · 30/100
+0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.
Elevated · 29/100
+0.0%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
UVSPUnivest Financial Corporation
Elevated · 28/100
-0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
GSBCGreat Southern Bancorp, Inc.
Elevated · 22/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NY
Quiet · 19/100
-0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
EFSCEnterprise Financial Services CMost unusual-1.0%100% of 1 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
ALRSAlerus Financial CorporationParticipating+0.2%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.Participating+0.4%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc.Participating-0.1%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CHCOCity Holding CompanyParticipating+0.4%100% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SMBCSouthern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.Participating+0.1%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PRKPark National CorporationParticipating-0.0%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.Participating-0.5%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
RBCAARepublic Bancorp, Inc.Participating+0.3%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FCFFirstParticipating+0.1%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.Participating+0.0%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
UVSPUnivest Financial CorporationParticipating-0.3%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
GSBCGreat Southern Bancorp, Inc.Participating-0.1%0% of 1 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NYQuiet / lagging-0.3%0% of 1 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 1 completed episode across 1 active session; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support60 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions1Completed session observations, not trades
2026-06-261 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
ALRS100% · 1 episode
CHCO100% · 1 episode
CTBI100% · 1 episode
EFSC100% · 1 episode
NWBI100% · 1 episode
FCF0% · 0 episodes
GSBC0% · 0 episodes
PEBO0% · 0 episodes
PRK0% · 0 episodes
RBCAA0% · 0 episodes
SMBC0% · 0 episodes
STBA0% · 0 episodes
TRST0% · 0 episodes
UVSP0% · 0 episodes