Themes / Group
Building · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 3 · 18:04 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 7 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 12%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth4 up · 3 downRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment12%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 61/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth3 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, MAY 6MBIN filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

THU, AUG 6BBT filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

12/12 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BOH, CBU, CVBF, FRME, LOB, MBIN, MCB, OBK, SFBS.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

These increases were partially offset by a $14.0 million, or 23%, increase in noninterest expense and a $7.6 million increase in the provision for credit losses. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ 63 Table of Contents Merchants Bancorp The following table presents, for the periods indicated, information about (i) average balances, the total dollar amount of interest income from interest-earning assets and the resultant average yields; (ii) average balances, the total dollar amount of interest expense on interest-bearing liabilities and the resultant average rates; (iii) net interest income; (iv) the interest rate spread; and (v) the net interest margin.

MBIN 10-Q · 2026-05-07
credit / rates

This was partially offset by an $11.4 million increase in average borrowings, to $3.1 billion, for the three months ended March 31, 2026, compared to the three months ended March 31, 2025.

MBIN 10-Q · 2026-05-07
demand / volume

The 9% increase in total deposits, which outpaced the 6% growth in loans receivable, was primarily due to a $2.9 billion increase in demand deposits, and a $324.6 million increase in money market/savings accounts, partially offset by a $2.1 billion decrease in certificates of deposit.

MBIN 10-K · 2026-02-27
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

CBSHMoving with group

BBT · text peer

FLGMoving with group

CBU · text peer

HAFCNot confirming

SFBS · text peer

EGBNNot confirming

SFBS · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
MBINTMPBBTOBKMCBSFBSCVBFWAFDBOHFRMELOBCBU

7/12 active4 rising · 3 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
MBINMerchants Bancorp
Most unusual · 100/100
Flow divergenceActive in 28.6% of observed group sessions
TMPTompkins Financial Corporation
Elevated · 62/100
Flow confirmerActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
BBTBeacon Financial Corporation
Elevated · 35/100
+0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
OBKOrigin Bancorp, Inc.
Elevated · 35/100
Flow confirmerActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
MCBMetropolitan Bank Holding Corp.
Elevated · 34/100
Flow divergenceActive in 28.6% of observed group sessions
SFBSServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.
Elevated · 27/100
-50.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
CVBFCVB Financial Corp.
Elevated · 20/100
+0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
WAFDWaFd, Inc.
Quiet · 17/100
-0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BOHBank of Hawaii Corporation
Quiet · 16/100
-0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FRMEFirst Merchants Corporation
Quiet · 16/100
+0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 42.9% of observed group sessions
LOBLive Oak Bancshares, Inc.
Quiet · 15/100
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CBUCommunity Financial System, Inc.
Quiet · 14/100
+0.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 28.6% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
MBINMerchants BancorpMost unusual28.6% of 7 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
TMPTompkins Financial CorporationParticipating14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
BBTBeacon Financial CorporationParticipating+0.1%14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
OBKOrigin Bancorp, Inc.Participating14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
MCBMetropolitan Bank Holding Corp.Participating28.6% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
SFBSServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.Participating-50.4%14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CVBFCVB Financial Corp.Participating+0.2%14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
WAFDWaFd, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.7%0% of 7 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BOHBank of Hawaii CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.2%0% of 7 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FRMEFirst Merchants CorporationQuiet / lagging+0.4%42.9% of 7 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
LOBLive Oak Bancshares, Inc.Quiet / lagging0% of 7 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CBUCommunity Financial System, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.9%28.6% of 7 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 3 completed episodes across 7 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support17 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes3Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions7Completed session observations, not trades
2026-06-24 → 2026-06-304 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-171 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-03 → 2026-06-042 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
FRME42.9% · 2 episodes
CBU28.6% · 1 episode
MBIN28.6% · 1 episode
MCB28.6% · 2 episodes
BBT14.3% · 1 episode
CVBF14.3% · 1 episode
OBK14.3% · 1 episode
SFBS14.3% · 1 episode
TMP14.3% · 1 episode
BOH0% · 0 episodes
LOB0% · 0 episodes
WAFD0% · 0 episodes