Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · 10:47 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Packaged Foods

THE TRADER READCAG dominates an otherwise mixed group path

4 of 8 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 3.5 effective names. MZTI, LW are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 10%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth4 up · 4 down-0.4% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment10%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 0/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth7 support daysLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

7 timed events · 10:55–10:40 ET
TIMING READThe first measured price move in the common-bar window preceded the nearest verified headline by 530 minutes. Current timestamp evidence therefore does not support that headline as the initial catalyst.
  1. 5-minute inferenceCLX registered the first material downside path

    -0.42% session path at the threshold · CLX

  2. 5-minute inferenceGIS registered a material downside path

    -0.71% session path at the threshold · GIS

  3. 5-minute inferenceKHC registered a material downside path

    -0.58% session path at the threshold · KHC

  4. 5-minute inferenceCPB registered a material upside path

    +0.37% session path at the threshold · CPB

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, JUL 14CAG filing documented shared operating contextinput costs affecting expense · date precision only

THU, AUG 6CLX filing documented shared operating contextinput costs affecting expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 3.5 effective names. CAG represents 45.0% of absolute path energy; 4 of 8 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionConcentrated45.0% from the largest path
Effective names3.5 / 8Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth4/8 aligneddownside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverCAG 45.0%67.7% from the top two paths
CAG45.0%Dominant mover · path -4.30% · basket -0.54pp
GIS22.7%Aligned contributor · path -2.17% · basket -0.27pp
MDLZ14.1%Aligned contributor · path -1.35% · basket -0.17pp
HRL8.7%Counter-move · path +0.83% · basket +0.10pp
KHC7.4%Aligned contributor · path -0.70% · basket -0.09pp
CLX1.4%Flat / inactive path · path -0.14% · basket -0.02pp
SJM0.6%Flat / inactive path · path +0.06% · basket +0.01pp
CPB0.0%Flat / inactive path · path +0.00% · basket +0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. CLX moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.42%
  2. GIS registered a material lower path15m after the first price move · path -0.71%
  3. KHC registered a material lower path45m after the first price move · path -0.58%
  4. CPB registered a material higher path65m after the first price move · path +0.37%
  5. CAG registered a material lower path100m after the first price move · path -1.20%
  6. MDLZ registered a material lower path100m after the first price move · path -0.40%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 29 · 10:55 ETMove visible 11:55 ETSep 30 · 10:40 ET
Group median -0.42%Strongest relative path HRLWeakest relative path CAG

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

3 items
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

8/8 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across CAG, CPB, HRL, KHC.

input costs affecting expense

“Disruptions to our supply chain, including disruptions to our third-party manufacturing or transportation and distribution capabilities, due to labor shortages, increased labor costs, weather, including any potential effects of climate change, natural disaster, fire or explosion, terrorism, strikes, government action, geopolitical turmoil, pandemics, or other reasons beyond our control or the control of our suppliers and business partners, could impair our ability to manufacture or sell our products.”

CAG 10-K · 2026-07-15
restructuring

“Discount rates, long-term growth rates, and royalty rates used to estimate the fair value of our domestic retail brands with 10% or less excess fair value over carrying amount as of the fiscal 2026 annual impairment test were as follows: ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Discount Rate ​ ​ Long-Term Growth Rate ​ Royalty Rate ​ ​ Carrying Amount ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ (in millions) ​ ​ ​ ​ Minimum ​ ​ ​ ​ Maximum ​ ​ ​ ​ Minimum ​ ​ ​ ​ Maximum ​ ​ ​ Minimum ​ ​ ​ Maximum Brands (<10% cushion) ​ $ 902.1 ​ ​ 11.50% ​ ​ 13.50% ​ ​ 0.0% ​ ​ 2.0% ​ 1.0% ​ 11.0% ​ Assumptions used in impairment testing are made at a point in time and require significant judgment; therefore, they are subject to change based upon the facts and circumstances present at each annual impairment test date.”

CAG 10-K · 2026-07-15
restructuring affecting expense

“Initiatives designed to achieve our efficiency goals may take a year or more to complete and result in various restructuring charges as a result of accelerated depreciation, asset write-offs, and exit costs including severance, lease and other contract termination charges, and disposal costs.”

CAG 10-K · 2026-07-15
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

MZTIMoving with group

CAG · text peer

LWMoving with group

MDLZ · text peer

HSYNot confirming

KHC · text peer

REYNNot confirming

KHC · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
CAGGISMDLZCLXHRLKHCCPBSJM

5/8 active4 rising · 4 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
CAGConagra Brands, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-0.3%
Dominant path moverActive in 0% of observed group sessions
GISGeneral Mills, Inc.
Elevated · 34/100
+0.7%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
MDLZMondelez International, Inc.
Participating · 17/100
-1.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CLXThe Clorox Company
Participating · 15/100
+0.2%
First material pathActive in 0% of observed group sessions
HRLHormel Foods Corporation
Participating · 15/100
-0.6%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company
Quiet · 13/100
-0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CPBThe Campbell's Company
Quiet · 12/100
+0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company
Quiet · 0/100
+0.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
CAGConagra Brands, Inc.Most unusual-0.3%0% of 0 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
GISGeneral Mills, Inc.Participating+0.7%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
MDLZMondelez International, Inc.Participating-1.4%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
CLXThe Clorox CompanyParticipating+0.2%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
HRLHormel Foods CorporationParticipating-0.6%0% of 0 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
KHCThe Kraft Heinz CompanyQuiet / lagging-0.4%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CPBThe Campbell's CompanyQuiet / lagging+0.8%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SJMThe J. M. Smucker CompanyQuiet / lagging+0.1%0% of 0 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 0 completed episodes across 0 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support7 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes0Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions0Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-298 names in the durable cohort
2026-09-287 names in the durable cohort
2026-09-245 names in the durable cohort
2026-09-236 names in the durable cohort
2026-09-216 names in the durable cohort
2026-09-047 names in the durable cohort
2026-09-017 names in the durable cohort
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
CAG0% · 0 episodes
CLX0% · 0 episodes
CPB0% · 0 episodes
GIS0% · 0 episodes
HRL0% · 0 episodes
KHC0% · 0 episodes
MDLZ0% · 0 episodes
SJM0% · 0 episodes