Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · 11:48 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Aerospace & Defense

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

0 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the mixed across 4.9 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 22 cohort members. TDY is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 5%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth8 up · 14 down+0.0% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment5%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 0/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth5 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 15:20–09:30 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceFLNG registered the first material upside path

    +0.39% session path at the threshold · FLNG

  2. 5-minute inferenceLHX registered a material upside path

    +0.46% session path at the threshold · LHX

  3. 5-minute inferenceHII registered a material upside path

    +3.69% session path at the threshold · HII

  4. 5-minute inferenceLMT registered a material downside path

    -1.18% session path at the threshold · LMT

2 earlier filing context receipts

MON, JAN 26NOC filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

SUN, JUN 28AVAV filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 4.9 effective names. HII represents 38.6% of absolute path energy; 0 of 12 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionBalanced38.6% from the largest path
Effective names4.9 / 1212 of 22 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverHII 38.6%51.0% from the top two paths
HII38.6%Dominant mover · path +3.69% · basket +0.31pp
LMT12.4%Independent direction · path -1.18% · basket -0.10pp
FLNG11.8%Independent direction · path +1.13% · basket +0.09pp
COR9.3%Independent direction · path -0.89% · basket -0.07pp
LUNR9.2%Independent direction · path +0.87% · basket +0.07pp
GD6.9%Independent direction · path -0.66% · basket -0.06pp
DRS6.5%Independent direction · path -0.62% · basket -0.05pp
KRMN3.6%Independent direction · path +0.35% · basket +0.03pp
AVAV0.5%Flat / inactive path · path +0.04% · basket +0.00pp
LHX0.5%Flat / inactive path · path +0.04% · basket +0.00pp
CAH0.4%Flat / inactive path · path -0.04% · basket -0.00pp
KTOS0.4%Flat / inactive path · path -0.03% · basket -0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. FLNG moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +0.39%
  2. LHX registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.46%
  3. HII registered a material higher path1055m after the first price move · path +3.69%
  4. LMT registered a material lower path1055m after the first price move · path -1.18%
  5. COR registered a material lower path1055m after the first price move · path -0.89%
  6. LUNR registered a material higher path1055m after the first price move · path +0.87%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 29 · 15:20 ET15:55 ETSep 30 · 09:30 ET
Group median +0.01%Strongest relative path HIIWeakest relative path LMT

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

21/22 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AVAV, DRS, GD, HII, KRMN, KTOS, LHX, LMT, LUNR, MRCY, MSI, RKLB, RSG, RTX, WCN, WM.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“These increases were partially offset by lower interest expense on unrecognized tax benefits.”

NOC 10-K · 2026-01-27
demand / volume affecting revenue

“The decrease in PSDS was driven by decrease of $56.9 million of Switchblade product revenue due to order delays, partially offset by revenue from the ESAero acquisition of $41.8 million and increased demand for defense systems of $18.5 million.”

AVAV 10-Q · 2026-09-10
demand / volume

“Our operations and financial performance, as well as demand for our products and services, are impacted by these events, including global unrest.”

NOC 10-Q · 2026-07-21
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

TDYMoving with group

DRS · text peer

ESENot confirming

DRS · text peer

VOYGNot confirming

LUNR · text peer

SAICNot confirming

DRS · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
NOCHIIFLNGCORMSILMTRKLBKTOSAVAVORLYDRSMRCYLUNRRSGWMCAHKRMNMCKLHXWCNRTXGD

5/22 active8 rising · 14 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation
Most unusual · 100/100
-0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
Elevated · 88/100
+0.9%
Dominant path moverActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.
Elevated · 82/100
+0.1%
First material pathActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CORCencora, Inc.
Elevated · 79/100
+1.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.
Elevated · 77/100
-1.4%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation
Quiet · 69/100
-1.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
RKLBRocket Lab Corporation
Quiet · 50/100
-3.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
Quiet · 45/100
-2.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.
Quiet · 29/100
-2.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Quiet · 28/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.
Quiet · 25/100
+0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 87.5% of observed group sessions
MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.
Quiet · 25/100
+3.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 62.5% of observed group sessions
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.
Quiet · 19/100
-4.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
RSGRepublic Services, Inc.
Quiet · 18/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
WMWaste Management, Inc.
Quiet · 15/100
+0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
CAHCardinal Health, Inc.
Quiet · 15/100
+1.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.
Quiet · 14/100
-2.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 62.5% of observed group sessions
MCKMcKesson Corporation
Quiet · 13/100
+1.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.
Quiet · 8/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
WCNWaste Connections, Inc.
Quiet · 7/100
-0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
RTXRTX Corporation
Quiet · 5/100
-0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation
Quiet · 1/100
-0.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 37.5% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationMost unusual-0.2%12.5% of 8 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.Participating+0.9%12.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.Participating+0.1%0% of 8 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CORCencora, Inc.Participating+1.2%0% of 8 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.Participating-1.4%0% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQuiet / lagging-1.1%12.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQuiet / lagging-3.4%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.Quiet / lagging-2.3%50% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.Quiet / lagging-2.6%50% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.5%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.3%87.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.Quiet / lagging+3.1%62.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.Quiet / lagging-4.3%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
RSGRepublic Services, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.5%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WMWaste Management, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.3%12.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CAHCardinal Health, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.6%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.Quiet / lagging-2.4%62.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
MCKMcKesson CorporationQuiet / lagging+1.0%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.5%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WCNWaste Connections, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.4%12.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
RTXRTX CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.3%12.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.6%37.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.22%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
60 minutes-0.46%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Session close-0.72%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Next-session close-2.14%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 5 completed episodes across 8 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support34 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes5Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions8Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-221 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-09-021 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-243 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-141 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-31 → 2026-08-032 active sessions66.7% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
DRS87.5% · 4 episodes
KRMN62.5% · 3 episodes
MRCY62.5% · 4 episodes
AVAV50% · 3 episodes
KTOS50% · 3 episodes
GD37.5% · 3 episodes
HII12.5% · 1 episode
LMT12.5% · 1 episode
NOC12.5% · 1 episode
RTX12.5% · 1 episode
WCN12.5% · 1 episode
WM12.5% · 1 episode
CAH0% · 0 episodes
COR0% · 0 episodes
FLNG0% · 0 episodes
LHX0% · 0 episodes
LUNR0% · 0 episodes
MCK0% · 0 episodes
MSI0% · 0 episodes
ORLY0% · 0 episodes
RKLB0% · 0 episodes
RSG0% · 0 episodes