Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 9 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Aerospace & Defense

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

6 of 11 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 7.3 effective names. KBR is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 16%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth1 up · 10 down-0.2% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment16%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 12/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

5 timed events · 09:55–15:55 ET
TIMING READA verified headline preceded the first measured price move in the common-bar window by 890 minutes. The timing makes it a catalyst candidate, not proof of cause.
  2. 5-minute inferenceAVAV registered the first material downside path

    -0.98% session path at the threshold · AVAV

  3. 5-minute inferenceRTX registered a material upside path

    +0.84% session path at the threshold · RTX

  4. 5-minute inferenceHII registered a material downside path

    -1.07% session path at the threshold · HII

  5. 5-minute inferenceDRS registered a material downside path

    -0.44% session path at the threshold · DRS

2 earlier filing context receipts

THU, MAY 7RSG filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

SUN, JUN 28AVAV filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.3 effective names. AVAV represents 20.5% of absolute path energy; 6 of 11 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad20.5% from the largest path
Effective names7.3 / 11Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth6/11 aligneddownside relative path · 4 counter-moving
Largest moverAVAV 20.5%38.9% from the top two paths
AVAV20.5%Aligned contributor · path -1.59% · basket -0.14pp
HII18.4%Aligned contributor · path -1.42% · basket -0.13pp
DRS14.4%Aligned contributor · path -1.12% · basket -0.10pp
RSG13.0%Counter-move · path +1.01% · basket +0.09pp
LHX11.6%Aligned contributor · path -0.90% · basket -0.08pp
RTX6.5%Counter-move · path +0.50% · basket +0.05pp
LMT5.2%Aligned contributor · path -0.40% · basket -0.04pp
WM4.9%Counter-move · path +0.38% · basket +0.04pp
KTOS2.6%Counter-move · path +0.20% · basket +0.02pp
NOC2.1%Aligned contributor · path -0.17% · basket -0.01pp
GD0.9%Flat / inactive path · path +0.07% · basket +0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. AVAV moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.98%
  2. RTX registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.84%
  3. HII registered a material lower path165m after the first price move · path -1.07%
  4. DRS registered a material lower path165m after the first price move · path -0.44%
  5. RSG registered a material higher path165m after the first price move · path +0.42%
  6. LHX registered a material lower path220m after the first price move · path -0.37%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 9 · 09:55 ET14:55 ETSep 9 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.17%Strongest relative path RSGWeakest relative path AVAV

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

11/11 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AVAV, DRS, GD, HII, KTOS, LHX, LMT, RSG, RTX, WM.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Interest Expense The following table provides the components of interest expense, including accretion of debt discounts and accretion of discounts primarily associated with environmental and risk insurance liabilities assumed in acquisitions, for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and 2025 (in millions of dollars): Three Months Ended March 31, 2026 2025 Interest expense on debt $ 131 $ 124 Non-cash interest 21 18 Less: capitalized interest (1) (2) Total interest expense $ 151 $ 140 Total interest expense for the three months ended March 31, 2026 increased primarily due to a higher overall debt balance, partially offset by lower interest rates on our debt compared to the same period in 2025.”

RSG 10-Q · 2026-05-08
demand / volume affecting revenue

“Legacy AV product revenue included in the AxS segment increased by $196.6 million driven by an increase in LMS, MacCready Works, and MUAS products due to increase in domestic and international demand, partially offset by a decrease in SUAS due to a decrease in international sales.”

AVAV 10-K · 2026-06-29
restructuring

“Therefore, certain events could occur in the ordinary course of business and not necessarily be considered indicators of impairment due to the unique nature of the environmental services industry.”

RSG 10-K · 2026-02-18
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

KBRMoving with group

KTOS · text peer

ESENot confirming

DRS · text peer

SAICNot confirming

DRS · text peer

BWXTNot confirming

HII · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
AVAVGDLMTNOCLHXRTXRSGKTOSWMDRSHII

5/11 active1 rising · 10 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.
Elevated · 100/100
-5.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 57.1% of observed group sessions
GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation
Elevated · 80/100
-1.1%
Flow divergenceActive in 28.6% of observed group sessions
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation
Elevated · 73/100
-2.1%
Aligned price + flowActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation
Elevated · 63/100
-0.7%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.
Elevated · 59/100
-2.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
RTXRTX Corporation
Elevated · 58/100
-0.6%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
RSGRepublic Services, Inc.
Most unusual · 56/100
+0.4%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
Elevated · 52/100
-3.0%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 57.1% of observed group sessions
WMWaste Management, Inc.
Elevated · 42/100
-0.7%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.
Elevated · 41/100
-2.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 100% of observed group sessions
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
Quiet · 22/100
-2.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.Participating-5.3%57.1% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationParticipating-1.1%28.6% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
LMTLockheed Martin CorporationParticipating-2.1%14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationParticipating-0.7%0% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.Participating-2.1%0% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
RTXRTX CorporationParticipating-0.6%0% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
RSGRepublic Services, Inc.Most unusual+0.4%0% of 7 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.Participating-3.0%57.1% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
WMWaste Management, Inc.Participating-0.7%14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.Participating-2.5%100% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.Quiet / lagging-2.3%14.3% of 7 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.22%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
60 minutes-0.46%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Session close-0.72%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Next-session close-2.14%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 7 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support24 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions7Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-021 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-243 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-141 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-31 → 2026-08-032 active sessions66.7% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
DRS100% · 4 episodes
AVAV57.1% · 3 episodes
KTOS57.1% · 3 episodes
GD28.6% · 2 episodes
HII14.3% · 1 episode
LMT14.3% · 1 episode
WM14.3% · 1 episode
LHX0% · 0 episodes
NOC0% · 0 episodes
RSG0% · 0 episodes
RTX0% · 0 episodes