Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Oct 7 · 18:22 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Aerospace & Defense

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

8 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 9.4 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 17 cohort members. SPIR is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 13%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth1 up · 16 down-1.1% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment13%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 15/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth5 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:35–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceKTOS registered the first material upside path

    +0.62% session path at the threshold · KTOS

  2. 5-minute inferenceAVAV registered a material upside path

    +0.89% session path at the threshold · AVAV

  3. 5-minute inferenceKRMN registered a material downside path

    -1.69% session path at the threshold · KRMN

  4. 5-minute inferenceLMT registered a material downside path

    -0.81% session path at the threshold · LMT

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, FEB 11LHX filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting revenue · date precision only

WED, SEP 9AVAV filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting revenue · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 9.4 effective names. KRMN represents 18.0% of absolute path energy; 8 of 12 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad18.0% from the largest path
Effective names9.4 / 1212 of 17 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth8/12 aligneddownside relative path · 4 counter-moving
Largest moverKRMN 18.0%31.2% from the top two paths
KRMN18.0%Aligned contributor · path -2.81% · basket -0.23pp
LMT13.2%Aligned contributor · path -2.05% · basket -0.17pp
BKSY11.2%Counter-move · path +1.74% · basket +0.14pp
GD10.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.55% · basket -0.13pp
LHX9.7%Aligned contributor · path -1.51% · basket -0.13pp
DRS9.1%Aligned contributor · path -1.42% · basket -0.12pp
HII8.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.29% · basket -0.11pp
MRCY5.5%Aligned contributor · path -0.85% · basket -0.07pp
KTOS4.8%Counter-move · path +0.75% · basket +0.06pp
FLY4.3%Aligned contributor · path -0.66% · basket -0.06pp
AVAV3.4%Counter-move · path +0.52% · basket +0.04pp
LUNR2.8%Counter-move · path +0.43% · basket +0.04pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. KTOS moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +0.62%
  2. AVAV registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.89%
  3. KRMN registered a material lower path50m after the first price move · path -1.69%
  4. LMT registered a material lower path50m after the first price move · path -0.81%
  5. BKSY registered a material higher path50m after the first price move · path +0.76%
  6. GD registered a material lower path50m after the first price move · path -1.08%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Oct 7 · 09:35 ETMove visible 10:35 ETOct 7 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.07%Strongest relative path BKSYWeakest relative path KRMN

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

17/17 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AVAV, BKSY, DRS, FLY, GD, HII, KRMN, KTOS, LHX, LMT, LUNR, MRCY, PL, RKLB, RTX, WM.

demand / volume affecting revenue

“Revenue increased $540 million, or 3%, for fiscal 2025 compared to fiscal 2024 due to higher revenues across all of our segments excluding the impact of the CAS disposal group divestiture, primarily from higher volumes, including new program ramps, and increased international deliveries.”

LHX 10-K · 2026-02-12
credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Our net interest expense decreased $78 million, or 12%, in fiscal 2025 compared with fiscal 2024 primarily due to lower average outstanding notes under our commercial paper program (“CP Program”) _____________________________________________________________________ 24 during 2025.”

LHX 10-K · 2026-02-12
product pipeline / R&D affecting expense

“The decrease in SG&A expense was primarily due to a decrease of $17.4 million of intangible amortization expense and a decrease of $22.5 million in acquisition related expenses resulting from the prior year acquisition of BlueHalo, partially offset by an increase of approximately $9 million of employee related expenses related to increases in headcount and an increase of $4.4 million of bad debt expense. ​ Research and Development.”

AVAV 10-Q · 2026-09-10
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SPIRMoving with group

BKSY · text peer

VOYGNot confirming

LUNR · text peer

SATLNot confirming

BKSY · text peer

ESENot confirming

DRS · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
LHXNOCWMDRSKRMNRTXLMTMRCYRKLBGDHIIAVAVLUNRBKSYFLYKTOSPL

7/17 active1 rising · 16 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.7%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation
Elevated · 93/100
-2.0%
Flow divergenceActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
WMWaste Management, Inc.
Elevated · 75/100
+0.5%
Flow confirmerActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.
Elevated · 75/100
-2.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 87.5% of observed group sessions
KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.
Elevated · 73/100
-5.8%
Aligned path contributorActive in 62.5% of observed group sessions
RTXRTX Corporation
Elevated · 73/100
-1.6%
Flow divergenceActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation
Elevated · 59/100
-2.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.
Quiet · 54/100
-4.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 62.5% of observed group sessions
RKLBRocket Lab Corporation
Quiet · 45/100
-4.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation
Quiet · 43/100
-1.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 37.5% of observed group sessions
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.
Quiet · 39/100
-1.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.
Quiet · 34/100
-3.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.
Quiet · 31/100
-4.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
BKSYBlackSky Technology Inc.
Quiet · 30/100
-3.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 12.5% of observed group sessions
FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.
Quiet · 30/100
-5.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
Quiet · 25/100
-4.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
PLPlanet Labs PBC
Quiet · 8/100
-4.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc.Most unusual-1.7%0% of 8 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationParticipating-2.0%12.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
WMWaste Management, Inc.Participating+0.5%12.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.Participating-2.6%87.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.Participating-5.8%62.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
RTXRTX CorporationParticipating-1.6%12.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
LMTLockheed Martin CorporationParticipating-2.1%12.5% of 8 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.Quiet / lagging-4.0%62.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQuiet / lagging-4.2%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationQuiet / lagging-1.5%37.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.2%12.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.Quiet / lagging-3.3%50% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.Quiet / lagging-4.3%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BKSYBlackSky Technology Inc.Quiet / lagging-3.2%12.5% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.Quiet / lagging-5.7%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.Quiet / lagging-4.0%50% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PLPlanet Labs PBCQuiet / lagging-4.4%0% of 8 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.22%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
60 minutes-0.46%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Session close-0.72%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Next-session close-2.14%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.23% · MAE -2.14%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 5 completed episodes across 8 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support40 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes5Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions8Completed session observations, not trades
2026-09-221 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-09-021 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-243 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-141 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-31 → 2026-08-032 active sessions66.7% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
DRS87.5% · 4 episodes
KRMN62.5% · 3 episodes
MRCY62.5% · 4 episodes
AVAV50% · 3 episodes
KTOS50% · 3 episodes
GD37.5% · 3 episodes
BKSY12.5% · 1 episode
HII12.5% · 1 episode
LMT12.5% · 1 episode
NOC12.5% · 1 episode
RTX12.5% · 1 episode
WM12.5% · 1 episode
FLY0% · 0 episodes
LHX0% · 0 episodes
LUNR0% · 0 episodes
PL0% · 0 episodes
RKLB0% · 0 episodes