Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 14 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Consumer Home & Leisure

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

6 of 11 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 6.2 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 11 of 14 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 0%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth3 up · 10 down+0.4% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment0%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 63/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 10:20–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceKTB registered the first material downside path

    -0.53% session path at the threshold · KTB

  2. 5-minute inferenceVFC registered a material downside path

    -0.53% session path at the threshold · VFC

  3. 5-minute inferenceGAP registered a material downside path

    -1.81% session path at the threshold · GAP

  4. 5-minute inferenceDECK registered a material upside path

    +0.40% session path at the threshold · DECK

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, NOV 5COLM filing documented shared operating contextrestructuring · date precision only

WED, MAR 25ANF filing documented shared operating contextrestructuring · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is balanced across 6.2 effective names. GAP represents 32.6% of absolute path energy; 6 of 11 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBalanced32.6% from the largest path
Effective names6.2 / 1111 of 14 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth6/11 alignedupside relative path · 5 counter-moving
Largest moverGAP 32.6%44.5% from the top two paths
GAP32.6%Dominant mover · path -3.54% · basket -0.32pp
KTB11.9%Counter-move · path -1.29% · basket -0.12pp
DECK10.7%Aligned contributor · path +1.16% · basket +0.11pp
VFC9.7%Counter-move · path -1.06% · basket -0.10pp
MBC7.9%Aligned contributor · path +0.86% · basket +0.08pp
COLM7.8%Aligned contributor · path +0.84% · basket +0.08pp
CAKE6.1%Aligned contributor · path +0.66% · basket +0.06pp
GIII3.9%Aligned contributor · path +0.42% · basket +0.04pp
ETD3.6%Aligned contributor · path +0.39% · basket +0.04pp
ANF3.5%Counter-move · path -0.38% · basket -0.04pp
BYD2.4%Counter-move · path -0.26% · basket -0.02pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. KTB moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.53%
  2. VFC registered a material lower path35m after the first price move · path -0.53%
  3. GAP registered a material lower path110m after the first price move · path -1.81%
  4. DECK registered a material higher path110m after the first price move · path +0.40%
  5. ANF registered a material lower path230m after the first price move · path -0.54%
  6. BYD registered a material lower path235m after the first price move · path -0.51%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 30 · 10:20 ETMove visible 11:15 ETSep 30 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.39%Strongest relative path DECKWeakest relative path GAP

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

14/14 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BYD, CAKE, COLM, DECK, GAP, GIII, LEG, MBC, VFC, WWW.

restructuring

“$ 18,983 $ 29,031 $ (10,048) (35) % Effective income tax rate 26.7 % 24.4 % Our effective income tax rate increased primarily due to the impact of non-deductible impairment charges.”

COLM 10-Q · 2025-11-06
demand / volume affecting revenue

“The growth in EMEA distributor net sales was driven by healthy growth of Fall 2026 distributor orders, which more than offset a shift in timing of shipments out of the second quarter of 2026, as compared to the same period in 2025.”

COLM 10-Q · 2026-08-06
credit / rates affecting interest expense

“If we were to borrow under our credit agreements, we would be subject to market interest rates and may incur additional interest expense when borrowing in a high interest rate environment.”

COLM 10-Q · 2026-08-06
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

UANot confirming

DECK · text peer

LEVINot confirming

VFC · text peer

LULUNot confirming

COLM · text peer

AEONot confirming

GAP · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
COLMCAKEGIIIKTBBYDANFETDMBCLEGVFCDECKWWWGAPWINA

11/14 active3 rising · 10 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
COLMColumbia Sportswear Company
Most unusual · 100/100
-1.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 28.6% of observed group sessions
CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
Elevated · 93/100
-1.9%
Aligned path contributorActive in 42.9% of observed group sessions
GIIIG-III Apparel Group, Ltd.
Elevated · 89/100
-0.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.
Elevated · 64/100
-1.9%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
BYDBoyd Gaming Corporation
Elevated · 51/100
-0.7%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 28.6% of observed group sessions
ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.
Elevated · 50/100
+1.0%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 14.3% of observed group sessions
ETDEthan Allen Interiors Inc.
Elevated · 48/100
-0.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
MBCMasterBrand, Inc.
Elevated · 45/100
+0.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LEGLeggett & Platt Inc
Elevated · 45/100
—
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
VFCV.F. Corporation
Elevated · 41/100
-3.1%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
DECKDeckers Outdoor Corporation
Elevated · 40/100
+0.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc.
Quiet · 33/100
-0.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
GAPThe Gap, Inc.
Quiet · 29/100
-2.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
WINAWinmark Corporation
Quiet · 17/100
-1.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
COLMColumbia Sportswear CompanyMost unusual-1.6%28.6% of 7 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedParticipating-1.9%42.9% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
GIIIG-III Apparel Group, Ltd.Participating-0.5%14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.Participating-1.9%14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationParticipating-0.7%28.6% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.Participating+1.0%14.3% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ETDEthan Allen Interiors Inc.Participating-0.6%0% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
MBCMasterBrand, Inc.Participating+0.5%0% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LEGLeggett & Platt IncParticipating—0% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
VFCV.F. CorporationParticipating-3.1%0% of 7 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
DECKDeckers Outdoor CorporationParticipating+0.6%0% of 7 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.6%0% of 7 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
GAPThe Gap, Inc.Quiet / lagging-2.9%0% of 7 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WINAWinmark CorporationQuiet / lagging-1.8%0% of 7 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 7 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support11 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions7Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-08 → 2026-07-103 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-024 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
CAKE42.9% · 2 episodes
BYD28.6% · 1 episode
COLM28.6% · 2 episodes
ANF14.3% · 1 episode
GIII14.3% · 1 episode
KTB14.3% · 1 episode
DECK0% · 0 episodes
ETD0% · 0 episodes
GAP0% · 0 episodes
LEG0% · 0 episodes
MBC0% · 0 episodes
VFC0% · 0 episodes
WINA0% · 0 episodes
WWW0% · 0 episodes