Themes / Cluster
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 10 · 16:17 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Diversified Financials

THE TRADER READRecurring relationship, inactive in the latest snapshot

3 of 5 measured session-normalized paths align to the upside across 4.8 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 31%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth3 up · 2 down+0.4% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment31%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 0/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth9 episodes24 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 15:40–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceCM registered the first material downside path

    -0.70% session path at the threshold · CM

  2. 5-minute inferenceRY registered a material downside path

    -0.39% session path at the threshold · RY

  3. 5-minute inferenceBNS registered a material upside path

    +0.42% session path at the threshold · BNS

  4. 5-minute inferenceTD registered a material upside path

    +0.36% session path at the threshold · TD

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 4.8 effective names. CM represents 25.2% of absolute path energy; 3 of 5 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad25.2% from the largest path
Effective names4.8 / 5Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth3/5 alignedupside relative path · 2 counter-moving
Largest moverCM 25.2%48.4% from the top two paths
CM25.2%Dominant mover · path -0.76% · basket -0.15pp
TD23.2%Aligned contributor · path +0.70% · basket +0.14pp
RY20.2%Counter-move · path -0.61% · basket -0.12pp
BNS17.9%Aligned contributor · path +0.54% · basket +0.11pp
BMO13.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.41% · basket +0.08pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. CM moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.70%
  2. RY registered a material lower path5m after the first price move · path -0.39%
  3. BNS registered a material higher path95m after the first price move · path +0.42%
  4. TD registered a material higher path330m after the first price move · path +0.36%
  5. BMO registered a material higher path340m after the first price move · path +0.41%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Sep 9 · 15:40 ETMove visible 10:40 ETSep 10 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.41%Strongest relative path TDWeakest relative path CM

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

No high-confidence filing-linked outsiders are available for this group yet.

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
CMTDBMOBNSRY

4/5 active3 rising · 2 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Most unusual · 100/100
-0.4%
Dominant path moverActive in 70.8% of observed group sessions
TDThe Toronto-Dominion Bank
Elevated · 94/100
+0.8%
Aligned price + flowActive in 83.3% of observed group sessions
BMOBank of Montreal
Elevated · 58/100
+0.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 87.5% of observed group sessions
BNSThe Bank of Nova Scotia
Elevated · 30/100
+0.8%
Aligned price + flowActive in 58.3% of observed group sessions
RYRoyal Bank of Canada
Quiet · 0/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceMost unusual-0.4%70.8% of 24 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
TDThe Toronto-Dominion BankParticipating+0.8%83.3% of 24 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
BMOBank of MontrealParticipating+0.6%87.5% of 24 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
BNSThe Bank of Nova ScotiaParticipating+0.8%58.3% of 24 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
RYRoyal Bank of CanadaQuiet / lagging-0.5%33.3% of 24 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

4/4 events completed
30 minutes+0.51%100% continuation · n=4Median MFE +1.50% · MAE -0.01%
60 minutes+0.85%100% continuation · n=4Median MFE +1.50% · MAE -0.01%
Session close+1.03%100% continuation · n=3Median MFE +1.62% · MAE 0.07%
Next-session close+1.07%75% continuation · n=4Median MFE +1.50% · MAE -0.01%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

9 completed episodes across 24 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support53 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes9Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions24Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-241 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-181 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-121 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-27 → 2026-08-076 active sessions60% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-17 → 2026-07-202 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-103 active sessions28.6% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
BMO87.5% · 9 episodes
TD83.3% · 8 episodes
CM70.8% · 9 episodes
BNS58.3% · 7 episodes
RY33.3% · 2 episodes