Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

U.S. Bond ETFs

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

0 of 5 measured session-normalized paths align to the mixed across 4.2 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 25%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth0 up · 4 down-0.1% session-normalized median path

Capital-flow alignment25%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow

Activity nowHotActivity score 82/100 · lift 1.3×

Evidence depth3 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook

EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

1 timed event · 09:30–15:55 ET

TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

11:43 ET
Retained observationGroup activity qualified live
100% breadth · Hot activity

THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 4.2 effective names. IEF represents 29.4% of absolute path energy; 0 of 5 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionBroad29.4% from the largest path

Effective names4.2 / 5Movement diversity after concentration

Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving

Largest moverIEF 29.4%55.3% from the top two paths

IEF29.4%Dominant mover · path -0.10% · basket -0.02pp

BND25.9%Dominant mover · path -0.09% · basket -0.02pp

TLT24.5%Flat / inactive path · path -0.09% · basket -0.02pp

AGG13.3%Flat / inactive path · path -0.05% · basket -0.01pp

SHY6.9%Flat / inactive path · path -0.02% · basket -0.01pp

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations

Price sequence unavailableNo member cleared the material price threshold in the observed window.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Aug 21 · 09:30 ET12:35 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET

Group median -0.09%Strongest relative path SHYWeakest relative path IEF

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast

WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

AMG → UVXYPositive historical lead/lag · strength 0.31

AMG → SLVInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.34

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

No high-confidence filing-linked outsiders are available for this group yet.

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately

SHYIEFBNDAGGTLT

5/5 active0 rising · 5 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now

SHYiShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Most unusual · 100/100

-0.0%

Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions

IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Elevated · 69/100

-0.2%

Dominant path moverActive in 100% of observed group sessions

BNDVanguard Total Bond Market ETF

Elevated · 64/100

-0.1%

Dominant path moverActive in 100% of observed group sessions

AGGiShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bon

Elevated · 63/100

-0.1%

Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Elevated · 48/100

-0.4%

Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions

View exact member values

TICKER	Company	Role now	Today	Observed history	Trader interpretation
SHY	iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF	Most unusual	-0.0%	100% of 47 sessions	Most unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	Participating	-0.2%	100% of 47 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF	Participating	-0.1%	100% of 47 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
AGG	iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bon	Participating	-0.1%	100% of 47 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	Participating	-0.4%	100% of 47 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome

POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

11/11 events completed

30 minutes-0.02%25% continuation · n=8Median MFE +0.17% · MAE -0.17%

60 minutes-0.02%38% continuation · n=8Median MFE +0.17% · MAE -0.17%

Session close-0.04%29% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.17% · MAE -0.14%

Next-session close+0.01%50% continuation · n=8Median MFE +0.17% · MAE -0.17%

Low structural sample

Only 3 completed episodes across 47 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support48 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed

Completed episodes3Separate periods of broad group activity

Active sessions47Completed session observations, not trades

2026-07-07 → 2026-08-2134 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode

2026-06-23 → 2026-07-028 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode

2026-06-12 → 2026-06-185 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode

MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS

AGG100% · 3 episodes

BND100% · 3 episodes

IEF100% · 3 episodes

SHY100% · 3 episodes

TLT100% · 3 episodes