Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Sep 18 · 03:55 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Bond ETFs

THE TRADER READTLT dominates an otherwise mixed group path

0 of 4 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the mixed across 2.3 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 8%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth3 up · 1 down-0.1% median path versus SPY

Capital-flow alignment8%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow

Activity nowCalmActivity score 0/100 · lift 0.8×

Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook

EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

1 timed event · 09:40–15:55 ET

TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.

11:05 ET
5-minute inferenceTLT registered the first material downside path
-0.45% session path at the threshold · TLT

THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 2.3 effective names. TLT represents 61.1% of absolute path energy; 0 of 4 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionConcentrated61.1% from the largest path

Effective names2.3 / 4Movement diversity after concentration

Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving

Largest moverTLT 61.1%77.6% from the top two paths

TLT61.1%Dominant mover · path -0.23% · basket -0.06pp

AGG16.5%Flat / inactive path · path -0.06% · basket -0.01pp

BND16.5%Flat / inactive path · path -0.06% · basket -0.01pp

IEF5.9%Flat / inactive path · path -0.02% · basket -0.01pp

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations

HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred

11:05 ET
TLT moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.45%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted

Sep 25 · 09:40 ET12:35 ETSep 25 · 15:55 ET

Group median -0.06%Strongest relative path IEFWeakest relative path TLT

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast

WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

No high-confidence filing-linked outsiders are available for this group yet.

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately

BNDAGGIEFTLT

0/4 active3 rising · 1 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now

BNDVanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares

Elevated · 100/100

+0.3%

Flow confirmerActive in 100% of observed group sessions

AGGiShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF

Most unusual · 98/100

+0.2%

Flow confirmerActive in 100% of observed group sessions

IEFiShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Elevated · 87/100

+0.3%

Flow confirmerActive in 100% of observed group sessions

TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Elevated · 71/100

-0.1%

Dominant path moverActive in 100% of observed group sessions

View exact member values

TICKER	Company	Role now	Today	Observed history	Trader interpretation
BND	Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares	Participating	+0.3%	100% of 54 sessions	Price participation with accumulating signed flow.
AGG	iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF	Most unusual	+0.2%	100% of 54 sessions	Most unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	Participating	+0.3%	100% of 54 sessions	Price participation with accumulating signed flow.
TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	Participating	-0.1%	100% of 54 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome

POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

17/17 events completed

30 minutes-0.01%36% continuation · n=11Median MFE +0.16% · MAE -0.14%

60 minutes-0.02%46% continuation · n=11Median MFE +0.16% · MAE -0.14%

Session close-0.03%30% continuation · n=10Median MFE +0.17% · MAE -0.12%

Next-session close+0.06%55% continuation · n=11Median MFE +0.16% · MAE -0.14%

Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 54 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support68 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed

Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity

Active sessions54Completed session observations, not trades

2026-09-01 → 2026-09-096 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode

2026-07-07 → 2026-08-2435 active sessions80% composition consistency through the episode

2026-06-23 → 2026-07-028 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode

2026-06-12 → 2026-06-185 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode

MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS

AGG100% · 4 episodes

BND100% · 4 episodes

IEF100% · 4 episodes

TLT100% · 4 episodes