Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Oct 2 · 18:26 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Semiconductor Manufacturing

THE TRADER READPrice breadth and capital flow are aligned

8 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 7.0 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 16 cohort members. Q, MPWR are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital flow shows accumulation with 66% agreement. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth16 of 16 rising+0.4% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment66%Accumulation confirmed by signed flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 5/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 10:15–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceNPO registered the first material upside path

    +3.54% session path at the threshold · NPO

  2. 5-minute inferenceESI registered a material upside path

    +1.86% session path at the threshold · ESI

  3. 5-minute inferenceASX registered a material upside path

    +1.76% session path at the threshold · ASX

  4. 5-minute inferenceROG registered a material upside path

    +2.27% session path at the threshold · ROG

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 24APG filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting revenue · date precision only

WED, APR 29ENTG filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting revenue · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.0 effective names. CAMT represents 22.9% of absolute path energy; 8 of 12 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad22.9% from the largest path
Effective names7.0 / 1212 of 16 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth8/12 alignedupside relative path · 3 counter-moving
Largest moverCAMT 22.9%42.6% from the top two paths
CAMT22.9%Aligned contributor · path +2.79% · basket +0.23pp
NPO19.7%Aligned contributor · path +2.40% · basket +0.20pp
ESI15.8%Aligned contributor · path +1.93% · basket +0.16pp
ASX9.6%Aligned contributor · path +1.17% · basket +0.10pp
ROG8.5%Aligned contributor · path +1.04% · basket +0.09pp
ENTG7.7%Counter-move · path -0.94% · basket -0.08pp
ASML4.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.54% · basket +0.04pp
FORM3.3%Counter-move · path -0.40% · basket -0.03pp
KLAC2.7%Counter-move · path -0.33% · basket -0.03pp
GFS2.5%Aligned contributor · path +0.31% · basket +0.03pp
NVMI2.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.29% · basket +0.02pp
APG0.3%Flat / inactive path · path +0.04% · basket +0.00pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. NPO moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +3.54%
  2. ESI registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.86%
  3. ASX registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.76%
  4. ROG registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +2.27%
  5. ASML registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.45%
  6. FORM registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.76%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Oct 2 · 10:15 ETMove visible 11:35 ETOct 2 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.42%Strongest relative path CAMTWeakest relative path ENTG

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

9/16 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across ESI, FORM, ROG, SPXC.

demand / volume affecting revenue

“Revenue estimates reflected in our backlog can be subject to change due to a number of factors, including contract cancellations and contract changes made by our customers to the amount or nature of the work actually performed under a contract.”

APG 10-K · 2026-02-25
credit / rates affecting interest expense

“The decrease in interest expense, net was primarily driven by a decrease in floating rates and benefits from certain derivative transactions, offset by an increased volume of outstanding debt.”

APG 10-Q · 2026-07-30
credit / rates

“The cash provided by financing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2026 was driven by $795 million in proceeds from long-term borrowings and $280 million of net short-term debt, offset by $303 million in payments on long-term borrowings, $66 million of share repurchases, $38 million of restricted shares tendered for taxes, and $13 million of payments of acquisition-related consideration, while in the six months ended June 30, 2025, cash used in financing activities was driven by $75 million of share repurchases, $20 million of restricted shares tendered for taxes, and $2 million of payments of acquisition-related consideration.”

APG 10-Q · 2026-07-30
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

2 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

QMoving with group

ENTG · text peer

MPWRMoving with group

FORM · text peer

ACMRNot confirming

ENTG · text peer

ASYSNot confirming

ENTG · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
TSMRRXNPOENTGSTMAPGASXESICAMTROGNVMIASMLKLACGFSFORMSPXC

5/16 active16 rising · 0 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
Most unusual · 100/100
+3.0%
Flow confirmerActive in 0% of observed group sessions
RRXRegal Rexnord Corporation
Elevated · 85/100
+2.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NPOEnpro Inc.
Elevated · 71/100
+5.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ENTGEntegris, Inc.
Elevated · 61/100
+5.1%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
STMSTMicroelectronics N.V.
Quiet · 61/100
+7.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
APGAPi Group Corporation
Elevated · 55/100
+1.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
Quiet · 54/100
+6.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ESIElement Solutions Inc
Quiet · 54/100
+4.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
CAMTCamtek Ltd.
Quiet · 54/100
+7.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
ROGRogers Corporation
Quiet · 47/100
+2.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NVMINova Ltd.
Quiet · 46/100
+2.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
ASMLASML Holding N.V.
Quiet · 35/100
+3.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
KLACKLA Corporation
Quiet · 27/100
+3.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.
Quiet · 24/100
+3.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
FORMFormFactor, Inc.
Quiet · 23/100
+0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
SPXCSPX Technologies, Inc.
Quiet · 13/100
+2.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedMost unusual+3.0%0% of 3 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
RRXRegal Rexnord CorporationParticipating+2.2%0% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NPOEnpro Inc.Participating+5.1%0% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ENTGEntegris, Inc.Participating+5.1%0% of 3 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
STMSTMicroelectronics N.V.Quiet / lagging+7.1%0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
APGAPi Group CorporationParticipating+1.1%0% of 3 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.Quiet / lagging+6.0%0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ESIElement Solutions IncQuiet / lagging+4.4%0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
CAMTCamtek Ltd.Quiet / lagging+7.4%0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ROGRogers CorporationQuiet / lagging+2.8%0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NVMINova Ltd.Quiet / lagging+2.4%33.3% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
ASMLASML Holding N.V.Quiet / lagging+3.2%33.3% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
KLACKLA CorporationQuiet / lagging+3.2%33.3% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.Quiet / lagging+3.1%0% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FORMFormFactor, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.4%33.3% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SPXCSPX Technologies, Inc.Quiet / lagging+2.2%33.3% of 3 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 3 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support25 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions3Completed session observations, not trades
2026-10-011 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-09-18 → 2026-09-222 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
ASML33.3% · 1 episode
FORM33.3% · 1 episode
KLAC33.3% · 1 episode
NVMI33.3% · 1 episode
SPXC33.3% · 1 episode
APG0% · 0 episodes
ASX0% · 0 episodes
CAMT0% · 0 episodes
ENTG0% · 0 episodes
ESI0% · 0 episodes
GFS0% · 0 episodes
NPO0% · 0 episodes
ROG0% · 0 episodes
RRX0% · 0 episodes
STM0% · 0 episodes
TSM0% · 0 episodes