Themes / Pair
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Auto Parts & Healthcare

THE TRADER READAZO dominates an otherwise mixed group path

2 of 2 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 1.3 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 7%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth0 up · 1 down-0.8% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment7%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 27/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

2 timed events · 09:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceAZO registered the first material downside path

    -1.14% session path at the threshold · AZO

  2. 5-minute inferenceORLY registered a material downside path

    -0.36% session path at the threshold · ORLY

2 earlier filing context receipts

THU, FEB 26ORLY filing documented shared operating contextcapital investment / capacity affecting capex · date precision only

THU, JUN 11AZO filing documented shared operating contextcapital investment / capacity affecting capex · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 1.3 effective names. AZO represents 88.6% of absolute path energy; 2 of 2 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionConcentrated88.6% from the largest path
Effective names1.3 / 2Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth2/2 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverAZO 88.6%100.0% from the top two paths
AZO88.6%Dominant mover · path -1.40% · basket -0.70pp
ORLY11.4%Aligned contributor · path -0.18% · basket -0.09pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. AZO moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -1.14%
  2. ORLY registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.36%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Aug 21 · 09:30 ETMove visible 09:35 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.79%Strongest relative path ORLYWeakest relative path AZO

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

2/2 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K relation is capital investment / capacity affecting capex on capex across AZO, ORLY.

capital investment / capacity affecting capex

“The increase in capital expenditures was primarily driven by our growth initiatives, including new stores, hub and mega hub store expansion projects .”

AZO 10-Q · 2026-06-12
tariffs / trade costs affecting expense

“Our business is impacted by various factors within the economy that affect both our consumers and our industry, including but not limited to inflation, interest rates, levels of consumer debt, fuel and energy costs, prevailing wage rates, foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations, supply chain disruptions, tariffs, trade policies and other geopolitical factors, hiring and other economic conditions.”

AZO 10-Q · 2026-06-12
demand / volume

“Milder weather conditions may lower the failure rates of automotive parts, while extremely hot or cold conditions may enhance demand for our products due to increased failure rates of our customers’ automotive parts.”

AZO 10-K · 2025-10-27
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

OLLINot confirming

AZO · text peer

FRPTNot confirming

AZO · text peer

CVLGNot confirming

AZO · text peer

CWHNot confirming

AZO · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
AZOORLY

2/2 active1 rising · 1 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
AZOAutoZone, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-0.1%
Dominant path moverActive in 100% of observed group sessions
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Elevated · 37/100
+0.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 100% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
AZOAutoZone, Inc.Most unusual-0.1%100% of 12 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc.Participating+0.0%100% of 12 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-0.30%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +1.82% · MAE -1.01%
60 minutes-0.30%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +1.82% · MAE -1.01%
Session close-0.64%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +1.82% · MAE -1.01%
Next-session close+0.90%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +1.82% · MAE -1.01%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 12 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support28 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions12Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-18 → 2026-08-192 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-111 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-27 → 2026-08-035 active sessions50% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-15 → 2026-07-214 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
AZO100% · 4 episodes
ORLY100% · 4 episodes