Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Jul 14 · 18:03 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Residential & Recreational

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 9 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 16%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth8 up · 1 downRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment16%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 72/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth1 episodeLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

0 timed events
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.

No session event has enough timestamp precision to place on the clock.

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 3PHM filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting orders · date precision only

TUE, JUL 28GRBK filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting orders · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

10/10 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across HD, LEN, LEN-B, LKQ, MTH, NVR.

demand / volume affecting orders

“The decrease in closings in 2025 was primarily attributable to lower net new orders in 2025 and a weaker order backlog entering the year, partially offset by a higher community count and improved production cycle times.”

PHM 10-K · 2026-02-04
credit / rates

“The carrying amounts of cash and equivalents, Financial Services debt, Other notes payable and the Revolving Credit Facility approximate their fair values due to their short-term nature and floating interest rate terms.”

PHM 10-K · 2026-02-04
demand / volume affecting backlog

“The decreases in closings were primarily attributable to a weaker order backlog entering the year, partially offset by a higher community count and improved production cycle times.”

PHM 10-Q · 2026-07-22
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

LGIHNot confirming

LEN · text peer

HOVRelationship only · live confirmation unavailable

DHI · text peer

TOLNot confirming

GRBK · text peer

BZHNot confirming

GRBK · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
PHMLENDHIHDLKQVVVNVRGRBKMTHLEN-B

9/10 active8 rising · 1 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
PHMPulteGroup, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
+1.0%
Flow divergenceActive in 50% of observed group sessions
LENLennar Corporation
Elevated · 73/100
+1.9%
Flow divergenceActive in 50% of observed group sessions
DHID.R. Horton, Inc.
Elevated · 68/100
+0.7%
Flow divergenceActive in 50% of observed group sessions
HDHome Depot, Inc. (The)
Elevated · 48/100
+0.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
LKQLKQ Corporation
Elevated · 43/100
-0.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
VVVValvoline Inc.
Elevated · 43/100
+0.4%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
NVRNVR, Inc.
Elevated · 36/100
+1.1%
Flow confirmerActive in 0% of observed group sessions
GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.
Elevated · 36/100
+2.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
MTHMeritage Homes Corporation
Elevated · 33/100
+1.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
LEN-BLennar Corporation
Quiet · 25/100
—
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
PHMPulteGroup, Inc.Most unusual+1.0%50% of 2 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
LENLennar CorporationParticipating+1.9%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
DHID.R. Horton, Inc.Participating+0.7%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
HDHome Depot, Inc. (The)Participating+0.4%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LKQLKQ CorporationParticipating-0.8%50% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
VVVValvoline Inc.Participating+0.4%0% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
NVRNVR, Inc.Participating+1.1%0% of 2 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.Participating+2.2%0% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
MTHMeritage Homes CorporationParticipating+1.1%0% of 2 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
LEN-BLennar CorporationQuiet / lagging—0% of 2 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Live outcome ledger collecting

0/0 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

One continuous episode spans 2 active sessions; the independent episode sample remains low—context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support3 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes1Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions2Completed session observations, not trades
2026-07-09 → 2026-07-102 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
DHI50% · 1 episode
HD50% · 1 episode
LEN50% · 1 episode
LKQ50% · 1 episode
PHM50% · 1 episode
GRBK0% · 0 episodes
LEN-B0% · 0 episodes
MTH0% · 0 episodes
NVR0% · 0 episodes
VVV0% · 0 episodes