Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 19 · 18:05 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Rental & Leasing Services

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

10 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 9.6 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 20 cohort members. SHW, AMRZ, RPM are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 6%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth10 up · 9 down+1.2% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment6%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 11/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 10:05–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceESAB registered the first material upside path

    +1.22% session path at the threshold · ESAB

  2. 5-minute inferenceMHK registered a material upside path

    +1.10% session path at the threshold · MHK

  3. 5-minute inferenceHON registered a material upside path

    +1.38% session path at the threshold · HON

  4. 5-minute inferenceIP registered a material upside path

    +0.96% session path at the threshold · IP

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, AUG 4OC filing documented shared operating contextinput costs affecting expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 12ALH filing documented shared operating contextinput costs affecting expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 9.6 effective names. ESAB represents 16.1% of absolute path energy; 10 of 12 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad16.1% from the largest path
Effective names9.6 / 1212 of 20 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth10/12 alignedupside relative path · 2 counter-moving
Largest moverESAB 16.1%29.0% from the top two paths
ESAB16.1%Aligned contributor · path +2.75% · basket +0.23pp
PPG12.9%Aligned contributor · path +2.20% · basket +0.18pp
JHX12.6%Aligned contributor · path +2.15% · basket +0.18pp
MHK12.6%Aligned contributor · path +2.15% · basket +0.18pp
OC9.5%Aligned contributor · path +1.63% · basket +0.14pp
HON7.1%Aligned contributor · path +1.22% · basket +0.10pp
AXTA6.8%Aligned contributor · path +1.17% · basket +0.10pp
HAYW6.3%Aligned contributor · path +1.07% · basket +0.09pp
IP6.0%Aligned contributor · path +1.02% · basket +0.09pp
ALH5.0%Aligned contributor · path +0.86% · basket +0.07pp
CRH2.8%Counter-move · path -0.49% · basket -0.04pp
MMM2.3%Counter-move · path -0.39% · basket -0.03pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. ESAB moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +1.22%
  2. MHK registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.10%
  3. HON registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.38%
  4. IP registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +0.96%
  5. PPG registered a material higher path10m after the first price move · path +0.59%
  6. CRH registered a material lower path10m after the first price move · path -0.37%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Oct 1 · 10:05 ETMove visible 11:45 ETOct 1 · 15:55 ET
Group median +1.19%Strongest relative path ESABWeakest relative path CRH

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

19/20 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across ALH, AXTA, CRH, ESAB, HON, IP, MHK, OC, PPG, SGI, SN, SW, TOL, WMS.

input costs affecting expense

“The decrease was primarily driven by higher delivery costs of $23 million and input cost inflation of $19 million, partially offset by favorable mix and lower manufacturing costs of $11 million.”

OC 10-Q · 2026-08-05
demand / volume

“Lower volumes of approximately 7% were partially offset by higher selling prices of $129 million.”

OC 10-K · 2026-02-25
credit / rates affecting interest expense

“As a result of the borrowing, the Company incurred approximately $ 16 million of financing fees which were amortized to Interest expense, net on the Consolidated Statements of Earnings.”

OC 10-K · 2026-02-25
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

3 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

SHWMoving with group

PPG · text peer

AMRZMoving with group

CRH · text peer

RPMMoving with group

PPG · text peer

XPELNot confirming

AXTA · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
OCALHESABCRHTTAMHONTREXPPGMMMMHKJHXSGIWMSAXTAHAYWTOLQXOSNSWIP

6/20 active10 rising · 9 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
OCOwens Corning
Most unusual · 100/100
+0.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 15.4% of observed group sessions
ALHAlliance Laundry Holdings Inc.
Elevated · 66/100
-0.4%
Aligned path contributorActive in 7.7% of observed group sessions
ESABESAB Corporation
Elevated · 60/100
+1.9%
Aligned path contributorActive in 15.4% of observed group sessions
CRHCRH plc
Elevated · 51/100
-1.4%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TTAMTitan America SA
Elevated · 45/100
—
Active; unclassifiedActive in 15.4% of observed group sessions
HONHoneywell International Inc.
Elevated · 43/100
+1.3%
Aligned price + flowActive in 7.7% of observed group sessions
TREXTrex Company, Inc.
Quiet · 41/100
-0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 7.7% of observed group sessions
PPGPPG Industries, Inc.
Quiet · 40/100
+0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
MMM3M Company
Quiet · 39/100
-0.7%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
MHKMohawk Industries, Inc.
Quiet · 39/100
+0.3%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
JHXJames Hardie Industries plc
Quiet · 35/100
-0.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SGISomnigroup International Inc.
Quiet · 35/100
+1.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc.
Quiet · 34/100
+0.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 30.8% of observed group sessions
AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.
Quiet · 32/100
-1.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
HAYWHayward Holdings, Inc.
Quiet · 30/100
+0.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.
Quiet · 30/100
+1.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 30.8% of observed group sessions
QXOQXO, Inc.
Quiet · 30/100
+3.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 7.7% of observed group sessions
SNSharkNinja, Inc.
Quiet · 29/100
-0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
SWSmurfit Westrock Plc
Quiet · 28/100
-2.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
IPInternational Paper Company
Quiet · 23/100
-2.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
OCOwens CorningMost unusual+0.3%15.4% of 13 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
ALHAlliance Laundry Holdings Inc.Participating-0.4%7.7% of 13 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ESABESAB CorporationParticipating+1.9%15.4% of 13 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CRHCRH plcParticipating-1.4%0% of 13 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
TTAMTitan America SAParticipating—15.4% of 13 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HONHoneywell International Inc.Participating+1.3%7.7% of 13 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
TREXTrex Company, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.2%7.7% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PPGPPG Industries, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.3%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
MMM3M CompanyQuiet / lagging-0.7%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
MHKMohawk Industries, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.3%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
JHXJames Hardie Industries plcQuiet / lagging-0.5%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SGISomnigroup International Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.0%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.1%30.8% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.Quiet / lagging-1.0%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
HAYWHayward Holdings, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.1%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
TOLToll Brothers, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.2%30.8% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
QXOQXO, Inc.Quiet / lagging+3.1%7.7% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SNSharkNinja, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.2%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SWSmurfit Westrock PlcQuiet / lagging-2.5%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
IPInternational Paper CompanyQuiet / lagging-2.0%0% of 13 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed

No completed point-in-time outcome is available yet. New live confirmations are now retained with their exact observation timestamp; statistics appear only after the corresponding candles complete.

Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 13 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support18 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions13Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-10 → 2026-08-133 active sessions10% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-03 → 2026-08-052 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-27 → 2026-07-282 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-15 → 2026-07-226 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
TOL30.8% · 3 episodes
WMS30.8% · 2 episodes
ESAB15.4% · 1 episode
OC15.4% · 2 episodes
TTAM15.4% · 1 episode
ALH7.7% · 1 episode
HON7.7% · 1 episode
QXO7.7% · 1 episode
TREX7.7% · 1 episode
AXTA0% · 0 episodes
CRH0% · 0 episodes
HAYW0% · 0 episodes
IP0% · 0 episodes
JHX0% · 0 episodes
MHK0% · 0 episodes
MMM0% · 0 episodes
PPG0% · 0 episodes
SGI0% · 0 episodes
SN0% · 0 episodes
SW0% · 0 episodes