Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 20 · 16:27 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Quantum Technology

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

9 of 10 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 8.2 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 10 of 11 cohort members. ASST, GEMI, FIGR are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 21%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth1 up · 9 down-1.4% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment21%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 81/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth7 episodes16 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

6 timed events · 09:45–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    82% breadth · Hot activity

  3. 5-minute inferenceSOFI registered the first material downside path

    -0.53% session path at the threshold · SOFI

  4. 5-minute inferenceCRCL registered a material downside path

    -0.87% session path at the threshold · CRCL

  5. 5-minute inferenceHOOD registered a material downside path

    -0.98% session path at the threshold · HOOD

  6. 5-minute inferenceBLSH registered a material downside path

    -0.75% session path at the threshold · BLSH

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, APR 28HOOD filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, AUG 4CRCL filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 8.2 effective names. XXI represents 20.3% of absolute path energy; 9 of 10 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad20.3% from the largest path
Effective names8.2 / 1010 of 11 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth9/10 aligneddownside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverXXI 20.3%35.3% from the top two paths
XXI20.3%Aligned contributor · path -3.29% · basket -0.33pp
CRCL15.0%Aligned contributor · path -2.44% · basket -0.24pp
BULL12.0%Counter-move · path +1.95% · basket +0.20pp
MSTR10.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.63% · basket -0.16pp
BMNR9.3%Aligned contributor · path -1.51% · basket -0.15pp
SOFI8.9%Aligned contributor · path -1.44% · basket -0.14pp
HOOD8.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.30% · basket -0.13pp
COIN7.7%Aligned contributor · path -1.25% · basket -0.13pp
BLSH7.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.14% · basket -0.11pp
ETOR1.8%Aligned contributor · path -0.30% · basket -0.03pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. SOFI moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.53%
  2. CRCL registered a material lower path10m after the first price move · path -0.87%
  3. HOOD registered a material lower path10m after the first price move · path -0.98%
  4. BLSH registered a material lower path10m after the first price move · path -0.75%
  5. ETOR registered a material lower path10m after the first price move · path -0.53%
  6. MSTR registered a material lower path15m after the first price move · path -0.79%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Sep 29 · 09:45 ETMove visible 10:00 ETSep 29 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.37%Strongest relative path BULLWeakest relative path XXI

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

7/11 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BMNR, COIN, CRCL, HOOD, MSTR, SOFI, XXI.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure, is calculated as net income (loss) from continuing operations excluding: net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests, depreciation and amortization expenses; interest expense, net of amortization of discounts and premiums;”

CRCL 10-Q · 2026-08-05
demand / volume

“Reserve income increased by $33.5 million, or 5.3%, for the three months ended June 30, 2026, compared to the three months ended June 30, 2025, of which approximately $147.4 million of the increase is attributable to a 25.2% increase in average daily USDC in circulation reflecting increased demand for Circle stablecoins, as well as expanded strategic partnerships and integrations.”

CRCL 10-Q · 2026-08-05
restructuring affecting expense

“Operating expenses Compensation expenses Compensation expenses are primarily driven by employee compensation, including salaries and wages, stock-based compensation, bonuses, post-retirement benefits, commissions, and severance payments.”

CRCL 10-Q · 2026-08-05
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

3 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

ASSTMoving with group

MSTR · text peer

GEMIMoving with group

COIN · text peer

FIGRMoving with group

SOFI · text peer

BTGONot confirming

MSTR · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BULLCRCLHOODMSTRSOFIETORBLSHCOINXXITLXBMNR

10/11 active1 rising · 9 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BULLWebull Corporation
Elevated · 100/100
+2.1%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 43.8% of observed group sessions
CRCLCircle Internet Group
Most unusual · 99/100
-2.4%
Aligned price + flowActive in 43.8% of observed group sessions
HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.
Elevated · 80/100
-0.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 50% of observed group sessions
MSTRStrategy Inc
Elevated · 77/100
-1.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 31.2% of observed group sessions
SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.
Elevated · 56/100
-0.2%
Aligned price + flowActive in 43.8% of observed group sessions
ETOReToro Group Ltd.
Elevated · 49/100
-0.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 43.8% of observed group sessions
BLSHBullish
Elevated · 48/100
-0.8%
Aligned path contributorActive in 18.8% of observed group sessions
COINCoinbase Global, Inc.
Elevated · 43/100
-0.9%
Aligned price + flowActive in 31.2% of observed group sessions
XXITwenty One Capital, Inc.
Elevated · 41/100
-3.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 31.2% of observed group sessions
TLXTelix Pharmaceuticals Limited
Elevated · 34/100
—
Active; unclassifiedActive in 6.2% of observed group sessions
BMNRBitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc.
Quiet · 27/100
-0.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BULLWebull CorporationParticipating+2.1%43.8% of 16 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CRCLCircle Internet GroupMost unusual-2.4%43.8% of 16 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.Participating-0.2%50% of 16 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
MSTRStrategy IncParticipating-1.6%31.2% of 16 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc.Participating-0.2%43.8% of 16 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
ETOReToro Group Ltd.Participating-0.5%43.8% of 16 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BLSHBullishParticipating-0.8%18.8% of 16 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
COINCoinbase Global, Inc.Participating-0.9%31.2% of 16 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
XXITwenty One Capital, Inc.Participating-3.1%31.2% of 16 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TLXTelix Pharmaceuticals LimitedParticipating—6.2% of 16 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BMNRBitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc.Quiet / lagging-0.4%0% of 16 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes+0.23%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +2.24% · MAE -3.91%
60 minutes+0.38%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +2.24% · MAE -3.91%
Session close-0.58%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +2.24% · MAE -3.91%
Next-session close-0.88%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +2.24% · MAE -3.91%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

7 completed episodes across 16 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support46 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes7Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions16Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-202 active sessions42.9% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-131 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-04 → 2026-08-072 active sessions42.9% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-21 → 2026-07-295 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-13 → 2026-07-152 active sessions25% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-01 → 2026-07-022 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
HOOD50% · 6 episodes
BULL43.8% · 5 episodes
CRCL43.8% · 5 episodes
ETOR43.8% · 3 episodes
SOFI43.8% · 5 episodes
COIN31.2% · 5 episodes
MSTR31.2% · 4 episodes
XXI31.2% · 2 episodes
BLSH18.8% · 2 episodes
TLX6.2% · 1 episode
BMNR0% · 0 episodes