Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Private Mortgage Insurance

THE TRADER READESNT dominates an otherwise mixed group path

0 of 5 measured session-normalized paths align to the mixed across 2.7 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 4%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth2 up · 2 down+0.0% session-normalized median path

Capital-flow alignment4%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow

Activity nowHotActivity score 79/100 · lift 1.3×

Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook

EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

3 timed events · 15:35–15:55 ET

TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.

13:42 ET
Retained observationGroup activity qualified live
80% breadth · Hot activity
15:15 ET
5-minute inferenceESNT registered the first material downside path
-0.99% session path at the threshold · ESNT
15:55 ET
5-minute inferenceNMIH registered a material downside path
-0.53% session path at the threshold · NMIH

THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is concentrated across 2.7 effective names. ESNT represents 52.4% of absolute path energy; 0 of 5 members align without a clean common direction.

ConstructionConcentrated52.4% from the largest path

Effective names2.7 / 5Movement diversity after concentration

Direction breadthMixedmixed relative path · 0 counter-moving

Largest moverESNT 52.4%79.0% from the top two paths

ESNT52.4%Dominant mover · path -1.04% · basket -0.21pp

NMIH26.6%Dominant mover · path -0.53% · basket -0.11pp

MTG11.4%Independent direction · path +0.23% · basket +0.04pp

ACT8.2%Independent direction · path +0.16% · basket +0.03pp

RDN1.4%Flat / inactive path · path +0.03% · basket +0.01pp

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations

HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred

15:15 ET
ESNT moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.99%
15:55 ET
NMIH registered a material lower path40m after the first price move · path -0.53%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Aug 20 · 15:35 ET15:55 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET

Group median +0.03%Strongest relative path MTGWeakest relative path ESNT

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast

WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

GNWNot confirming

ACT · text peer

CIMNot confirming

NMIH · text peer

PFSINot confirming

MTG · text peer

IVRNot confirming

NMIH · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately

ESNTACTMTGRDNNMIH

5/5 active3 rising · 2 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now

ESNTEssent Group Ltd.

Most unusual · 100/100

-0.7%

Dominant path moverActive in 92.9% of observed group sessions

ACTAdvisorShares Vice ETF

Elevated · 25/100

+0.2%

Flow confirmerActive in 92.9% of observed group sessions

MTGMGIC Investment Corporation

Elevated · 18/100

+0.7%

Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions

RDNRadian Group Inc.

Participating · 16/100

+0.0%

Flow divergenceActive in 100% of observed group sessions

NMIHNMI Holdings, Inc.

Participating · 15/100

-0.5%

Dominant path moverActive in 92.9% of observed group sessions

View exact member values

TICKER	Company	Role now	Today	Observed history	Trader interpretation
ESNT	Essent Group Ltd.	Most unusual	-0.7%	92.9% of 14 sessions	Most unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
ACT	AdvisorShares Vice ETF	Participating	+0.2%	92.9% of 14 sessions	Price participation with accumulating signed flow.
MTG	MGIC Investment Corporation	Participating	+0.7%	100% of 14 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
RDN	Radian Group Inc.	Participating	+0.0%	100% of 14 sessions	Price participation with distributing signed flow.
NMIH	NMI Holdings, Inc.	Participating	-0.5%	92.9% of 14 sessions	Price participation with accumulating signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome

POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

8/8 events completed

30 minutes-0.19%38% continuation · n=8Median MFE +0.18% · MAE -0.79%

60 minutes-0.31%25% continuation · n=8Median MFE +0.18% · MAE -0.79%

Session close-0.34%33% continuation · n=6Median MFE +0.14% · MAE -0.88%

Next-session close-0.54%29% continuation · n=7Median MFE +0.17% · MAE -0.80%

Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 14 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support17 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed

Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity

Active sessions14Completed session observations, not trades

2026-08-18 → 2026-08-213 active sessions100% composition consistency through the episode

2026-07-21 → 2026-08-1211 active sessions33.3% composition consistency through the episode

MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS

MTG100% · 2 episodes

RDN100% · 2 episodes

ACT92.9% · 2 episodes

ESNT92.9% · 2 episodes

NMIH92.9% · 2 episodes