Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regulated Utilities

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

8 of 8 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 7.6 effective names. ED, AEE, PEG are also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 18%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth8 of 8 falling-2.0% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment18%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 85/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth2 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

5 timed events · 09:50–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceEIX registered the first material downside path

    -0.84% session path at the threshold · EIX

  2. 5-minute inferencePOR registered a material downside path

    -0.55% session path at the threshold · POR

  3. 5-minute inferenceES registered a material downside path

    -0.76% session path at the threshold · ES

  4. 5-minute inferencePNW registered a material downside path

    -0.77% session path at the threshold · PNW

  5. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    100% breadth · Hot activity

2 earlier filing context receipts

TUE, FEB 24PNW filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, FEB 24AVA filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.6 effective names. EIX represents 18.3% of absolute path energy; 8 of 8 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad18.3% from the largest path
Effective names7.6 / 8Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth8/8 aligneddownside relative path · 0 counter-moving
Largest moverEIX 18.3%33.5% from the top two paths
EIX18.3%Aligned contributor · path -3.10% · basket -0.39pp
ES15.2%Aligned contributor · path -2.58% · basket -0.32pp
PNW13.3%Aligned contributor · path -2.26% · basket -0.28pp
AVA12.8%Aligned contributor · path -2.17% · basket -0.27pp
NEE10.6%Aligned contributor · path -1.80% · basket -0.23pp
PCG10.2%Aligned contributor · path -1.73% · basket -0.22pp
D10.1%Aligned contributor · path -1.72% · basket -0.21pp
POR9.5%Aligned contributor · path -1.61% · basket -0.20pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. EIX moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -0.84%
  2. POR registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.55%
  3. ES registered a material lower path10m after the first price move · path -0.76%
  4. PNW registered a material lower path10m after the first price move · path -0.77%
  5. AVA registered a material lower path10m after the first price move · path -1.00%
  6. NEE registered a material lower path15m after the first price move · path -0.52%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 21 · 09:50 ETMove visible 10:25 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.99%Strongest relative path PORWeakest relative path EIX

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

8/8 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across AVA, D, EIX, ES, PCG, PNW, POR.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Changes in economic conditions, monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial regulation, rating agency treatment and/or other factors could result in higher interest rates, which would increase interest expense on our existing variable rate debt and new debt we expect to issue in the future, and thus increase the cost and/or reduce the amount of funds available to us for our current plans.”

PNW 10-K · 2026-02-25
credit / rates

“Pinnacle West’s consolidated net cash provided by financing activities was $574 million in 2026 compared to $605 million in 2025, a decrease of $31 million in net cash provided primarily due to a net decrease of $775 million in short-term borrowings; partially offset by a $450 million decrease in long-term debt repayments and a $297 million increase in long-term borrowings.”

PNW 10-Q · 2026-08-04
capital investment / capacity affecting capex

“Pinnacle West’s consolidated net cash used for investing activities was $1,200 million in 2026 compared to $1,253 million in 2025, a decrease of $53 million of cash used primarily related to a $70 million increase in contributions in aid of construction; partially offset by a $25 million increase in capital expenditures.”

PNW 10-Q · 2026-08-04
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

3 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

EDMoving with group

ES · text peer

AEEMoving with group

D · text peer

PEGMoving with group

ES · text peer

UTLNot confirming

ES · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
PORPNWDPCGAVAESNEEEIX

8/8 active0 rising · 8 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
PORPortland General Electric Company
Elevated · 100/100
-0.9%
Aligned path contributorActive in 35.3% of observed group sessions
PNWPinnacle West Capital Corporati
Most unusual · 83/100
-2.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 35.3% of observed group sessions
DDominion Energy, Inc.
Elevated · 81/100
-1.3%
Aligned price + flowActive in 41.2% of observed group sessions
PCGPG&E Corporation
Elevated · 79/100
-2.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 17.6% of observed group sessions
AVAAvista Corporation
Elevated · 76/100
-1.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 58.8% of observed group sessions
ESEversource Energy
Elevated · 73/100
-2.7%
Aligned price + flowActive in 35.3% of observed group sessions
NEENextEra Energy, Inc.
Elevated · 72/100
-1.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 35.3% of observed group sessions
EIXEdison International
Elevated · 60/100
-4.0%
Aligned price + flowActive in 5.9% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
PORPortland General Electric CompanyParticipating-0.9%35.3% of 17 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PNWPinnacle West Capital CorporatiMost unusual-2.0%35.3% of 17 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
DDominion Energy, Inc.Participating-1.3%41.2% of 17 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
PCGPG&E CorporationParticipating-2.0%17.6% of 17 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
AVAAvista CorporationParticipating-1.6%58.8% of 17 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ESEversource EnergyParticipating-2.7%35.3% of 17 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
NEENextEra Energy, Inc.Participating-1.6%35.3% of 17 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
EIXEdison InternationalParticipating-4.0%5.9% of 17 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Observed follow-through

7/7 events completed
30 minutes-0.28%0% continuation · n=4Median MFE +0.03% · MAE -0.81%
60 minutes-0.39%0% continuation · n=4Median MFE +0.03% · MAE -0.81%
Session close-0.22%33% continuation · n=3Median MFE +0.04% · MAE -0.67%
Next-session close-0.24%25% continuation · n=4Median MFE +0.03% · MAE -0.81%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 2 completed episodes across 17 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support15 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes2Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions17Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-11 → 2026-08-219 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-27 → 2026-08-068 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
AVA58.8% · 2 episodes
D41.2% · 1 episode
ES35.3% · 1 episode
NEE35.3% · 1 episode
PNW35.3% · 1 episode
POR35.3% · 2 episodes
PCG17.6% · 1 episode
EIX5.9% · 1 episode