Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Gold Producers

THE TRADER READBroad price confirmation, weak flow alignment

7 of 11 measured session-normalized paths align to the downside across 7.3 effective names. Capital-flow agreement is 42%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth11 of 11 rising-0.4% session-normalized median path
Capital-flow alignment42%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 13/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth3 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 09:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceKGC registered the first material upside path

    +0.59% session path at the threshold · KGC

  2. 5-minute inferenceHYMC registered a material downside path

    -3.44% session path at the threshold · HYMC

  3. 5-minute inferenceCGAU registered a material downside path

    -0.92% session path at the threshold · CGAU

  4. 5-minute inferenceSSRM registered a material downside path

    -1.46% session path at the threshold · SSRM

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

Session-normalized 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.3 effective names. EQX represents 21.5% of absolute path energy; 7 of 11 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad21.5% from the largest path
Effective names7.3 / 11Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth7/11 aligneddownside relative path · 3 counter-moving
Largest moverEQX 21.5%37.8% from the top two paths
EQX21.5%Counter-move · path +1.88% · basket +0.17pp
KGC16.3%Counter-move · path +1.42% · basket +0.13pp
HYMC15.0%Aligned contributor · path -1.31% · basket -0.12pp
CGAU13.4%Aligned contributor · path -1.17% · basket -0.11pp
SSRM11.0%Aligned contributor · path -0.96% · basket -0.09pp
TFPM7.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.69% · basket -0.06pp
AGI4.8%Aligned contributor · path -0.42% · basket -0.04pp
IAG4.3%Aligned contributor · path -0.38% · basket -0.03pp
OR3.0%Aligned contributor · path -0.26% · basket -0.02pp
PAAS1.7%Counter-move · path +0.15% · basket +0.01pp
BTG1.0%Flat / inactive path · path +0.09% · basket +0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. KGC moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +0.59%
  2. HYMC registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -3.44%
  3. CGAU registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.92%
  4. SSRM registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.46%
  5. TFPM registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.13%
  6. OR registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.02%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized
Aug 21 · 09:30 ETMove visible 09:35 ETAug 21 · 15:55 ET
Group median -0.38%Strongest relative path EQXWeakest relative path HYMC

Observed member paths normalized to the session. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

No high-confidence shared filing driver is available. The market relationship is observed, but the cause remains unexplained.

CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming
WPM → HYGInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.23
WPM → BNDInverse historical lead/lag · strength -0.24

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

CDENot confirming

HYMC · text peer

CTGONot confirming

HYMC · text peer

LACNot confirming

HYMC · text peer

HLNot confirming

HYMC · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
HYMCTFPMORCGAUPAASKGCSSRMEQXBTGIAGAGI

5/11 active11 rising · 0 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
HYMCHycroft Mining Holding Corporation
Most unusual · 100/100
+3.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TFPMTriple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
Elevated · 78/100
+1.5%
Aligned path contributorActive in 100% of observed group sessions
OROR Royalties Inc.
Elevated · 74/100
+2.2%
Aligned path contributorActive in 75% of observed group sessions
CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.
Elevated · 54/100
+1.1%
Aligned path contributorActive in 50% of observed group sessions
PAASPan American Silver Corp.
Elevated · 44/100
+2.2%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 75% of observed group sessions
KGCKinross Gold Corporation
Quiet · 41/100
+4.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
SSRMSSR Mining Inc.
Quiet · 41/100
+2.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
EQXEquinox Gold Corp.
Quiet · 33/100
+5.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 25% of observed group sessions
BTGB2Gold Corp
Quiet · 30/100
+2.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 25% of observed group sessions
IAGIamgold Corporation
Quiet · 26/100
+3.1%
Watch / laggardActive in 0% of observed group sessions
AGIAlamos Gold Inc.
Quiet · 22/100
+3.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
HYMCHycroft Mining Holding CorporationMost unusual+3.6%0% of 4 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
TFPMTriple Flag Precious Metals Corp.Participating+1.5%100% of 4 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
OROR Royalties Inc.Participating+2.2%75% of 4 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.Participating+1.1%50% of 4 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PAASPan American Silver Corp.Participating+2.2%75% of 4 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
KGCKinross Gold CorporationQuiet / lagging+4.2%50% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
SSRMSSR Mining Inc.Quiet / lagging+2.6%0% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
EQXEquinox Gold Corp.Quiet / lagging+5.2%25% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BTGB2Gold CorpQuiet / lagging+2.9%25% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
IAGIamgold CorporationQuiet / lagging+3.1%0% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
AGIAlamos Gold Inc.Quiet / lagging+3.2%50% of 4 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

3/3 events completed
30 minutes-1.36%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.53% · MAE -2.38%
60 minutes-0.87%0% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.53% · MAE -2.38%
Session close-0.35%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.16% · MAE -2.48%
Next-session close-0.07%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.53% · MAE -2.38%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 3 completed episodes across 4 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support21 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes3Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions4Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-202 active sessions66.7% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-051 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-291 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
TFPM100% · 3 episodes
OR75% · 2 episodes
PAAS75% · 2 episodes
AGI50% · 2 episodes
CGAU50% · 2 episodes
KGC50% · 1 episode
BTG25% · 1 episode
EQX25% · 1 episode
HYMC0% · 0 episodes
IAG0% · 0 episodes
SSRM0% · 0 episodes