Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 16:11 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Regional Banks

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

Price direction is split across 12 measured members. Capital-flow agreement is 12%, so the basket is not yet clean.

Price breadth8 up · 3 downRelative median unavailable
Capital-flow alignment12%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 91/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

1 timed event
TIMING READA causal timing read is unavailable because no material member price onset could be timestamped.
  1. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    75% breadth · Hot activity

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, FEB 25BUSE filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

TUE, AUG 4CBSH filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
Price sequence unavailableA timestamped price sequence is unavailable.
RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

Session-normalized

Observed intraday paths are not available for this group yet.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

10/12 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across FFBC, FRME, HOMB, HTH, PRK, UMBF, WSBC.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“MD&A The following tables present, for the major components of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities, a breakout of changes in interest income and interest expense attributable to (1) changes in average volume and (2) changes in average yield.”

BUSE 10-K · 2026-02-26
credit / rates

“Other borrowings The carrying amounts of federal funds purchased, repurchase agreements and other short-term debt are reasonable estimates of their fair value because of the short-term nature of their maturities.”

UMBF 10-K · 2026-02-26
restructuring

“The variances in salaries and employee benefits are primarily driven by decreased severance, retention bonuses, and change in control payments made to HTLF associates in 2025.”

UMBF 10-Q · 2026-04-30
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

WABCNot confirming

CBSH · text peer

BANCNot confirming

HOMB · text peer

HWCNot confirming

HOMB · text peer

TCBINot confirming

CBSH · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
UMBFCBSHNBTBHTHBUSEFRMEFFBCWSBCOZKTOWNHOMBPRK

9/12 active8 rising · 4 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
UMBFUMB Financial Corporation
Most unusual · 100/100
-0.5%
Flow confirmerActive in 50% of observed group sessions
CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc.
Elevated · 26/100
-0.7%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 100% of observed group sessions
NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc.
Elevated · 23/100
+0.5%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 50% of observed group sessions
HTHHilltop Holdings Inc.
Elevated · 21/100
+0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
BUSEFirst Busey Corporation
Elevated · 20/100
+0.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
FRMEFirst Merchants Corporation
Participating · 16/100
+0.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.
Participating · 15/100
+0.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
WSBCWesBanco, Inc.
Participating · 11/100
-0.1%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
OZKBank OZK
Participating · 9/100
+0.2%
Flow divergenceActive in 16.7% of observed group sessions
TOWNTowneBank
Participating · 8/100
+0.7%
Flow divergenceActive in 66.7% of observed group sessions
HOMBHome BancShares, Inc.
Quiet · 7/100
+0.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
PRKPark National Corporation
Quiet · 7/100
-0.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 50% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
UMBFUMB Financial CorporationMost unusual-0.5%50% of 6 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc.Participating-0.7%100% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc.Participating+0.5%50% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
HTHHilltop Holdings Inc.Participating+0.2%66.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
BUSEFirst Busey CorporationParticipating+0.3%33.3% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
FRMEFirst Merchants CorporationParticipating+0.4%16.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FFBCFirst Financial Bancorp.Participating+0.3%0% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
WSBCWesBanco, Inc.Participating-0.1%16.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
OZKBank OZKParticipating+0.2%16.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
TOWNTowneBankParticipating+0.7%66.7% of 6 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
HOMBHome BancShares, Inc.Quiet / lagging+0.2%33.3% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
PRKPark National CorporationQuiet / lagging-0.0%50% of 6 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

3/3 events completed
30 minutes+0.15%67% continuation · n=3Median MFE +0.35% · MAE -0.36%
60 minutes+0.01%67% continuation · n=3Median MFE +0.35% · MAE -0.36%
Session close-0.13%0% continuation · n=3Median MFE +0.35% · MAE -0.36%
Next-session close+0.24%50% continuation · n=2Median MFE +0.52% · MAE -0.30%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 6 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support17 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions6Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-19 → 2026-08-213 active sessions22.2% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-121 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-08-061 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-311 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
CBSH100% · 4 episodes
HTH66.7% · 3 episodes
TOWN66.7% · 4 episodes
NBTB50% · 3 episodes
PRK50% · 3 episodes
UMBF50% · 1 episode
BUSE33.3% · 1 episode
HOMB33.3% · 2 episodes
FRME16.7% · 1 episode
OZK16.7% · 1 episode
WSBC16.7% · 1 episode
FFBC0% · 0 episodes