Themes / Group
Inactive · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 21 · 09:49 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Oil & Gas Services

THE TRADER READBroad relative move, confirmed beyond the cohort—but not by flow

8 of 9 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the downside across 6.8 effective names. APD is also moving with filing-linked members. Capital-flow agreement is 8%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth1 up · 7 down-1.1% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment8%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowCalmActivity score 2/100 · lift 0.8×
Evidence depth9 episodes21 observed active sessions
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

4 timed events · 10:30–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. 5-minute inferenceNESR registered the first material downside path

    -1.71% session path at the threshold · NESR

  2. 5-minute inferenceWHD registered a material downside path

    -0.89% session path at the threshold · WHD

  3. 5-minute inferenceNOV registered a material downside path

    -0.89% session path at the threshold · NOV

  4. 5-minute inferenceTS registered a material downside path

    -0.77% session path at the threshold · TS

2 earlier filing context receipts

MON, APR 27NOV filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting revenue · date precision only

WED, APR 29FTI filing documented shared operating contextdemand / volume affecting revenue · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 6.8 effective names. NESR represents 21.9% of absolute path energy; 8 of 9 members align with the down relative path.

ConstructionBroad21.9% from the largest path
Effective names6.8 / 9Movement diversity after concentration
Direction breadth8/9 aligneddownside relative path · 1 counter-moving
Largest moverNESR 21.9%43.3% from the top two paths
NESR21.9%Aligned contributor · path -2.51% · basket -0.28pp
WHD21.4%Aligned contributor · path -2.45% · basket -0.27pp
NOV14.2%Aligned contributor · path -1.62% · basket -0.18pp
TS10.7%Aligned contributor · path -1.23% · basket -0.14pp
BKR9.5%Aligned contributor · path -1.09% · basket -0.12pp
WFRD8.0%Aligned contributor · path -0.92% · basket -0.10pp
OII5.7%Counter-move · path +0.66% · basket +0.07pp
FTI4.6%Aligned contributor · path -0.52% · basket -0.06pp
SLB3.9%Aligned contributor · path -0.45% · basket -0.05pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. NESR moved lower firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path -1.71%
  2. WHD registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.89%
  3. NOV registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.89%
  4. TS registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.77%
  5. BKR registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -1.08%
  6. WFRD registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.88%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 20 · 10:30 ETMove visible 12:00 ETAug 20 · 15:55 ET
Group median -1.09%Strongest relative path OIIWeakest relative path NESR

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

8/9 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across BKR, FTI, NESR, NOV, OII, WHD.

demand / volume affecting revenue

“This growth was driven by the conversion of backlog, which was 17.4% higher as of December 31, 2025, when compared to December 31, 2024, resulting in increased revenue activity across iEPCI™, flexible supply, SPS supply and subsea services, particularly in Brazil, Mozambique, and Suriname.”

FTI 10-Q · 2026-04-30
credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Net interest expense increased $12 million compared to the second quarter of 2025, primarily driven by increased interest expense as a result of the senior notes offering in March 2026.”

BKR 10-Q · 2026-07-27
capital investment / capacity affecting capex

“EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Market Conditions During 2025, we saw a decline in global upstream capital spending as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions, uncertainty around international trade policy, and operator concerns about the accelerated return of idled supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ("OPEC+").”

BKR 10-K · 2026-02-05
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

1 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

APDMoving with group

NESR · text peer

ITWNot confirming

NESR · text peer

CRLNot confirming

BKR · text peer

FDSNot confirming

BKR · text peer

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
BKRSLBNESRWFRDOIITSNOVFTIWHD

5/9 active1 rising · 8 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
BKRBaker Hughes Company
Most unusual · 100/100
-2.6%
Aligned price + flowActive in 38.1% of observed group sessions
SLBSLB N.V.
Elevated · 64/100
-0.0%
Aligned path contributorActive in 28.6% of observed group sessions
NESRNational Energy Services Reunited Corp.
Elevated · 52/100
-2.5%
Aligned price + flowActive in 0% of observed group sessions
WFRDWeatherford International plc
Elevated · 51/100
-1.1%
Aligned price + flowActive in 23.8% of observed group sessions
OIIOceaneering International, Inc.
Elevated · 49/100
-0.5%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 9.5% of observed group sessions
TSTenaris S.A.
Quiet · 40/100
-0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 28.6% of observed group sessions
NOVNOV Inc.
Quiet · 22/100
-2.0%
Watch / laggardActive in 33.3% of observed group sessions
FTITechnipFMC plc
Quiet · 15/100
+0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 28.6% of observed group sessions
WHDCactus, Inc.
Quiet · 13/100
-6.6%
Watch / laggardActive in 42.9% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
BKRBaker Hughes CompanyMost unusual-2.6%38.1% of 21 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
SLBSLB N.V.Participating-0.0%28.6% of 21 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
NESRNational Energy Services Reunited Corp.Participating-2.5%0% of 21 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
WFRDWeatherford International plcParticipating-1.1%23.8% of 21 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
OIIOceaneering International, Inc.Participating-0.5%9.5% of 21 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TSTenaris S.A.Quiet / lagging-0.8%28.6% of 21 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NOVNOV Inc.Quiet / lagging-2.0%33.3% of 21 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FTITechnipFMC plcQuiet / lagging+0.8%28.6% of 21 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
WHDCactus, Inc.Quiet / lagging-6.6%42.9% of 21 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

1/1 events completed
30 minutes+0.48%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +1.29% · MAE 0.19%
60 minutes+0.90%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +1.29% · MAE 0.19%
Next-session close+1.29%100% continuation · n=1Median MFE +1.29% · MAE 0.19%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
moderate structural support

9 completed episodes across 21 active sessions provide moderate historical support. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support71 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes9Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions21Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-101 active session100% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-21 → 2026-07-295 active sessions33.3% composition consistency through the episode
2026-07-07 → 2026-07-093 active sessions9.1% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-025 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-17 → 2026-06-182 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
2026-06-02 → 2026-06-052 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
WHD42.9% · 4 episodes
BKR38.1% · 3 episodes
NOV33.3% · 4 episodes
FTI28.6% · 6 episodes
SLB28.6% · 5 episodes
TS28.6% · 4 episodes
WFRD23.8% · 5 episodes
OII9.5% · 2 episodes
NESR0% · 0 episodes