Themes / Group
Active · established relationshipLatest completed snapshot · Aug 14 · 18:20 ET

MARKET-DISCOVERED GROUP

Staffing Services

THE TRADER READShared activity without a clean directional read

9 of 12 measured SPY-adjusted paths align to the upside across 7.0 effective names. Common-bar coverage spans 12 of 20 cohort members. Capital-flow agreement is 3%, so the basket is not yet clean. No verified headline preceded the measured move.

Price breadth4 up · 16 down+0.5% median path versus SPY
Capital-flow alignment3%Price breadth is not yet confirmed by flow
Activity nowHotActivity score 87/100 · lift 1.3×
Evidence depth4 episodesLow sample—context, not a validated playbook
EVIDENCE CLOCK

What happened, in timestamp order

5 timed events · 09:50–15:55 ET
TIMING READNo verified timestamped headline was found within 24 hours of the first measured price move in the available common-bar window. The move currently reads as market-led or unexplained.
  1. Retained observationGroup activity qualified live

    65% breadth · Hot activity

  2. 5-minute inferenceNIQ registered the first material upside path

    +2.13% session path at the threshold · NIQ

  3. 5-minute inferenceHRB registered a material upside path

    +2.13% session path at the threshold · HRB

  4. 5-minute inferenceMORN registered a material upside path

    +2.84% session path at the threshold · MORN

  5. 5-minute inferenceIT registered a material upside path

    +2.12% session path at the threshold · IT

2 earlier filing context receipts

WED, APR 29ADP filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

WED, AUG 5PAYC filing documented shared operating contextcredit / rates affecting interest expense · date precision only

Headline times and retained activity confirmations are point-in-time evidence. Price order is inferred from aligned 5-minute bars. Filing evidence has date precision only and is context, not an intraday catalyst claim.
THEME CONSTRUCTION

Broad move or one-stock disguise?

SPY-adjusted 5m paths

Observed movement is broad across 7.0 effective names. NIQ represents 22.6% of absolute path energy; 9 of 12 members align with the up relative path.

ConstructionBroad22.6% from the largest path
Effective names7.0 / 1212 of 20 cohort members had common bars
Direction breadth9/12 alignedupside relative path · 2 counter-moving
Largest moverNIQ 22.6%41.2% from the top two paths
NIQ22.6%Aligned contributor · path +2.51% · basket +0.21pp
HRB18.6%Aligned contributor · path +2.07% · basket +0.17pp
MORN17.0%Aligned contributor · path +1.88% · basket +0.16pp
IT10.5%Aligned contributor · path +1.16% · basket +0.10pp
FDS9.2%Aligned contributor · path +1.02% · basket +0.09pp
ADSK5.8%Counter-move · path -0.64% · basket -0.05pp
ADP4.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.49% · basket +0.04pp
JKHY4.4%Aligned contributor · path +0.49% · basket +0.04pp
BR4.3%Aligned contributor · path +0.47% · basket +0.04pp
PAYC1.6%Counter-move · path -0.18% · basket -0.01pp
CHKP1.1%Aligned contributor · path +0.13% · basket +0.01pp
FICO0.5%Flat / inactive path · path +0.06% · basket +0.01pp
Top six names by movement share are shown. Movement share measures absolute 5-minute path energy; signed basket contribution is equal-weight. Neither is a portfolio weight or causal attribution.

01 · WHAT IS HAPPENING

The move, the flow and who is driving it

Price breadth, unusual activity and signed capital flow are separate observations
HOW THE PRICE MOVE SPREAD

Observed session sequence

5-minute bars · inferred
  1. NIQ moved higher firstFirst member to clear the material path threshold · path +2.13%
  2. HRB registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +2.13%
  3. MORN registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +2.84%
  4. IT registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +2.12%
  5. FDS registered a material higher path0m after the first price move · path +1.97%
  6. ADSK registered a material lower path0m after the first price move · path -0.55%

Sequence inferred from aligned 5-minute price paths; it is not a causal ordering.

RELATIVE CO-MOVEMENT

How the members are behaving together

SPY-adjusted
Aug 14 · 09:50 ETMove visible 15:20 ETAug 14 · 15:55 ET
Group median +0.49%Strongest relative path NIQWeakest relative path ADSK

Observed member paths adjusted against SPY. The dashed marker shows when the median move first cleared a material threshold; shading marks the latest 20% of the observed window.

02 · WHY IT MATTERS

Why now and where the move could travel

Context and lead/lag links are evidence, not proof of causation or a forecast
WHY NOW

Verified recent context

0 items

No verified recent catalyst is attached to this move. The relationship may be market-led rather than news-led.

WHY THIS GROUP EXISTS

Shared filing context

19/20 members covered

Moderate filing support: the strongest shared 10-Q/K outlook is operating setup (near-term outlook) across ADP, BR, HRB, JKHY, MORN, PAYC, PCTY, PTC, TYL, VRSK, WAY.

credit / rates affecting interest expense

“Interest Expense The increase in interest expense for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, as compared to the prior year periods, was primarily due to the timing and amount of borrowings outstanding under the Revolving Credit Facility.”

PAYC 10-Q · 2026-08-06
credit / rates

“These increases were partially offset by $900.0 million of borrowings under the Revolving Credit Facility, a $21.2 million decrease in withholding taxes paid related to net share settlements, a $7.4 million decrease in dividends paid, and a $4.4 million increase in proceeds from the employee stock purchase plan.”

PAYC 10-Q · 2026-08-06
restructuring affecting expense

“13.1 % 14.2 % (110) bps 31 (a) Other represents certain corporate overhead charges and expenses that have not been allocated to the reportable segments, including corporate functions, legal settlements, company-wide severance initiatives, non-recurring gains and losses, the elimination of intercompany transactions, and interest income and expense. n/m - not meaningful Employer Services Revenues Employer Services' revenues increased in fiscal 2026 due to new business started from new business bookings, strong client revenue retention, an increase in pricing, a 1% year-over-year growth impact of foreign currency, an increase in interest earned on funds held for clients of $164.1 million, and an increase in our pays per control when measured on a same-store-sales basis of 1%.”

ADP 10-K · 2026-08-05
CONFIRMATION NETWORK

Outsiders and cross-asset links

0 outsiders confirming

No qualified cross-asset lead/lag link is available for this group.

Filing-linked outsiders test whether the move is spreading beyond the established cohort.

JPMNot confirming

VRSK · customer

Filing receipt
“As of March 31, 2026 and December 31, 2025 , a vast majority of our domestic cash and cash equivalents is with TD Bank, N.A.”
FISNot confirming

HRB · supplier

Filing receipt
“A few examples of this type of reliance include: our relationships with Fidelity National Information Services, Inc.”
MSFTNot confirming

HRB · supplier

Filing receipt
“A few examples of this type of reliance include: our relationships with Fidelity National Information Services, Inc.”
WDAYNot confirming

ADP · partner

Filing receipt
“Our global partnerships with payroll providers, including Automatic Data Processing, Inc.”

03 · WHO IS IN IT

Member participation

Unusual activity and daily price direction are shown separately
PAYCPAYXVRSKADSKWKROPPTCTYLCHKPITJKHYFICOMORNADPWAYPCTYHRBFDSBRNIQ

15/20 active4 rising · 16 falling

MemberUnusual activityToday's moveRead now
PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.
Most unusual · 100/100
-2.8%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 34.5% of observed group sessions
PAYXPaychex, Inc.
Elevated · 51/100
-2.8%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 27.6% of observed group sessions
VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc.
Elevated · 29/100
-2.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 13.8% of observed group sessions
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.
Elevated · 26/100
-2.5%
Counter-move / dispersionActive in 6.9% of observed group sessions
WKWorkiva Inc.
Elevated · 25/100
-4.4%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 31% of observed group sessions
ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.
Elevated · 23/100
+0.4%
Flow confirmerActive in 6.9% of observed group sessions
PTCPTC Inc.
Elevated · 23/100
-2.7%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.
Elevated · 19/100
-0.2%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 6.9% of observed group sessions
CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies Ltd.
Elevated · 18/100
-1.9%
Aligned path contributorActive in 3.4% of observed group sessions
ITGartner, Inc.
Participating · 18/100
-1.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 13.8% of observed group sessions
JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.
Participating · 16/100
-1.6%
Aligned path contributorActive in 34.5% of observed group sessions
FICOFair Isaac Corporation
Participating · 14/100
-2.3%
Flow divergenceActive in 0% of observed group sessions
MORNMorningstar, Inc.
Participating · 13/100
+0.3%
Aligned path contributorActive in 6.9% of observed group sessions
ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.
Participating · 12/100
-1.2%
Aligned path contributorActive in 20.7% of observed group sessions
WAYWaystar Holding Corp.
Participating · 12/100
-1.3%
Active; unclassifiedActive in 0% of observed group sessions
PCTYPaylocity Holding Corporation
Quiet · 11/100
-2.9%
Watch / laggardActive in 37.9% of observed group sessions
HRBH&R Block, Inc.
Quiet · 11/100
+1.2%
Watch / laggardActive in 13.8% of observed group sessions
FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc.
Quiet · 8/100
-1.5%
Watch / laggardActive in 17.2% of observed group sessions
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions,
Quiet · 8/100
-0.8%
Watch / laggardActive in 20.7% of observed group sessions
NIQNIQ Global Intelligence plc
Quiet · 5/100
+3.4%
Watch / laggardActive in 3.4% of observed group sessions
View exact member values
TICKERCompanyRole nowTodayObserved historyTrader interpretation
PAYCPaycom Software, Inc.Most unusual-2.8%34.5% of 29 sessionsMost unusual activity in this snapshot; performance direction may differ.
PAYXPaychex, Inc.Participating-2.8%27.6% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc.Participating-2.3%13.8% of 29 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.Participating-2.5%6.9% of 29 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
WKWorkiva Inc.Participating-4.4%31% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.Participating+0.4%6.9% of 29 sessionsPrice participation with accumulating signed flow.
PTCPTC Inc.Participating-2.7%0% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.Participating-0.2%6.9% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
CHKPCheck Point Software Technologies Ltd.Participating-1.9%3.4% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ITGartner, Inc.Participating-1.3%13.8% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.Participating-1.6%34.5% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
FICOFair Isaac CorporationParticipating-2.3%0% of 29 sessionsPrice participation with distributing signed flow.
MORNMorningstar, Inc.Participating+0.3%6.9% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.Participating-1.2%20.7% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
WAYWaystar Holding Corp.Participating-1.3%0% of 29 sessionsPrice participation is not yet confirmed by per-name flow.
PCTYPaylocity Holding CorporationQuiet / lagging-2.9%37.9% of 29 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
HRBH&R Block, Inc.Quiet / lagging+1.2%13.8% of 29 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc.Quiet / lagging-1.5%17.2% of 29 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
BRBroadridge Financial Solutions,Quiet / lagging-0.8%20.7% of 29 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.
NIQNIQ Global Intelligence plcQuiet / lagging+3.4%3.4% of 29 sessionsNot participating yet; a breadth test or a genuine divergence.

04 · HAS THIS HAPPENED BEFORE

Identity history versus measured outcomes

Structural recurrence is not the same as a validated trading outcome
POINT-IN-TIME LIVE OUTCOMES

Early observed follow-through

2/2 events completed
30 minutes-1.80%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.35% · MAE -2.59%
60 minutes-1.93%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.35% · MAE -2.59%
Next-session close-1.70%0% continuation · n=1Median MFE +0.35% · MAE -2.59%
Only point-in-time live watcher observations and conservative same-day EOD observations are included. Later backfills and replay runs are excluded.
Low structural sample

Only 4 completed episodes across 29 active sessions; treat history as context, not a validated playbook. These episode counts describe recurrence; the outcome ledger above is the only forward-performance evidence.

Structural support40 daysHow often the cohort identity was observed
Completed episodes4Separate periods of broad group activity
Active sessions29Completed session observations, not trades
2026-08-12 → 2026-08-143 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-07-09 → 2026-08-0619 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-24 → 2026-07-015 active sessionsNo name was active through every recorded session
2026-06-17 → 2026-06-182 active sessions11.1% composition consistency through the episode
MEMBER CONSISTENCY IN OBSERVED ACTIVE SESSIONS
PCTY37.9% · 2 episodes
JKHY34.5% · 2 episodes
PAYC34.5% · 3 episodes
WK31% · 2 episodes
PAYX27.6% · 3 episodes
ADP20.7% · 1 episode
BR20.7% · 2 episodes
FDS17.2% · 3 episodes
HRB13.8% · 2 episodes
IT13.8% · 2 episodes
VRSK13.8% · 3 episodes
ADSK6.9% · 2 episodes
MORN6.9% · 2 episodes
ROP6.9% · 2 episodes
TYL6.9% · 2 episodes
CHKP3.4% · 1 episode
NIQ3.4% · 1 episode
FICO0% · 0 episodes
PTC0% · 0 episodes
WAY0% · 0 episodes